MLB Player Props Prediction: Pirates vs Diamondbacks - 7/26

- A Plus Picks
- Jul 26, 2024, 9:21:55 AM
MLB Player Props Prediction: Pirates vs Diamondbacks - 7/26
Game Summary
The Pittsburgh Pirates (52-50, third in the NL Central) will kick off a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks (53-50, third in the NL West) at Chase Field in Phoenix on Friday, July 26, 2024, at 9:40 p.m. EDT. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt, looking to gain ground in their respective divisions.
Arizona has a solid 26-24 record at home this season and boasts the ninth-best team slugging percentage (.410) in MLB. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has matched Arizona's road performance with a 26-24 record away from PNC Park. The Pirates have been particularly effective when out-hitting their opponents, holding a 38-4 record in such games.
Both teams come into this series on hot streaks. The Diamondbacks are 7-3 in their last 10 games, with a .246 batting average and a 3.33 ERA, outscoring opponents by 17 runs. The Pirates have gone 8-2 over their last 10, sporting a .256 batting average and an impressive 2.10 ERA, outscoring opponents by 16 runs.
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Player Prop Odds
For this game, we are focusing on Ke'Bryan Hayes and his player prop odds:
- Batter Doubles (0.5): Over +380
- Batter Hits (1.5): Over +260
- Batter RBIs (0.5): Over +195
- Batter Runs Scored (0.5): Over +125
- Batter Singles (0.5): Over -140
- Batter Total Bases (1.5): Over +145
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Player Analysis: Ke'Bryan Hayes
Ke'Bryan Hayes has been a consistent performer for the Pirates this season, hitting .250 with 15 home runs and 51 RBIs. Over his last 10 games, Hayes has been particularly effective, going 14-for-39 (.359) with three doubles, two home runs, and five RBIs. His recent form suggests he is seeing the ball well and making solid contact.
Hayes has a knack for coming through in clutch situations and has been a key contributor to the Pirates' recent success. His ability to get on base and drive in runs makes him a valuable asset in the middle of the lineup.
Opposing Analysis: Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen will be on the mound for the Diamondbacks. Gallen has had a solid season with a 7-5 record, 3.64 ERA, and 80 strikeouts in 81.2 innings pitched. However, he has shown some vulnerability, allowing 75 hits and 27 walks, which translates to a 1.25 WHIP.
Gallen's recent performances have been a mixed bag. While he has displayed the ability to dominate, he has also had games where he struggled with command and allowed multiple baserunners. This inconsistency could provide an opportunity for Hayes to capitalize and have a productive game at the plate.
Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz (PIT) | 5-2 | 2.57 | 1.11 | 73.2 | 61 | 59 | 21 | 3 |
| Zac Gallen (ARI) | 7-5 | 3.64 | 1.25 | 81.2 | 75 | 80 | 27 | 8 |
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Team Previews
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have shown resilience throughout the season, highlighted by their recent 8-2 run. Their offense ranks 8th in hits (879) and 3rd in runs (509) while maintaining a solid .252 batting average (9th). Their pitching staff has held a 4.50 ERA, ranking 26th, but their defense has been shaky with 42 errors, the 30th highest in MLB.
Key players like Oneil Cruz, who has been on fire recently, and consistent contributions from the lineup have propelled the Pirates into contention. Their relief pitching has been serviceable, with 23 saves, ranking tied-21st.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are also in the playoff mix, thanks in part to their 11th-ranked team ERA (3.77) and solid defense. However, their offense has struggled at times, ranking 25th in hits (800) and 23rd in runs (422). They have a .232 team batting average, ranking 26th in MLB.
Despite these challenges, players like Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been key contributors. Walker leads the team with 23 home runs and 70 RBIs, while Marte has been hitting .296. The team's relief pitching has been reliable, with 26 saves, tied for 13th in MLB.
Team Injuries
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | SP | Arm | 15-Day IL |
| Daulton Jefferies | SP | Elbow | 15-Day IL |
| Jared Jones | RP | Lat | 15-Day IL |
| Hunter Stratton | RP | Shoulder | 15-Day IL |
| Ryan Borucki | RP | Tricep | 60-Day IL |
| Dauri Moreta | RP | Elbow | 60-Day IL |
| Endy Rodriguez | C | Elbow | 60-Day IL |
| Johan Oviedo | SP | Elbow | 60-Day IL |
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Walston | RP | Elbow | 15-Day IL |
| Merrill Kelly | SP | Shoulder | 60-Day IL |
| Kyle Nelson | RP | Shoulder | 60-Day IL |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | SP | Shoulder | 60-Day IL |
| Drey Jameson | RP | Elbow | 60-Day IL |
Recent Games
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | vs Philadelphia | 8-7 | W |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs Philadelphia | 4-1 | W |
| Sun, Jul 21 | vs Philadelphia | 0-6 | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | vs St. Louis | 2-1 | W |
| Tue, Jul 23 | vs St. Louis | 1-2 | L |
| Wed, Jul 24 | vs St. Louis | 5-0 | W |
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | @ Chicago | 5-2 | W |
| Sat, Jul 20 | @ Chicago | 3-0 | W |
| Sun, Jul 21 | @ Chicago | 1-2 (10) | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | @ Kansas City | 4-10 | L |
| Tue, Jul 23 | @ Kansas City | 6-2 | W |
| Wed, Jul 24 | @ Kansas City | 8-6 | W |
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Prediction
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases for Ke'Bryan Hayes (+145)
With Hayes' recent performance and Zac Gallen's inconsistency, it's reasonable to expect Hayes to accumulate at least two total bases in this game. Hayes has been making solid contact and driving the ball well, giving him multiple ways to reach this mark.
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