MLB Player Props Prediction: New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies 7/29
Photo Credit: © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Philadelphia Phillies will host the New York Yankees in the first game of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, July 29, 2024. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, with the Phillies leading the NL East with a 65-40 record and the Yankees trailing the AL East leaders with a 62-45 mark.
Philadelphia has been stellar at home with a 38-18 record and has shown a propensity to score in bunches, boasting a 46-6 record in games where they score five or more runs. Their recent form, however, has been shaky, going 3-7 in their last 10 games with a team batting average of just .220. The Phillies will look to bounce back behind ace Zack Wheeler, who has been dominant with a 10-4 record, a 2.55 ERA, and 133 strikeouts.
The Yankees have been road warriors with a 35-22 record away from home and have excelled in close games, holding a 49-9 record when out-hitting their opponents. Despite a recent 4-6 record in their last 10 games, they remain a formidable opponent. Luis Gil will take the mound for the Yankees, sporting a 10-5 record with a 3.10 ERA and 124 strikeouts.
This game marks the first meeting between the two teams this season, adding an extra layer of intrigue as both sides vie for crucial wins in their respective playoff pushes. Key players to watch include Bryce Harper for the Phillies, who has been a consistent force with 24 home runs and 67 RBIs, and Aaron Judge for the Yankees, who leads the team with 37 home runs and 96 RBIs while hitting .314.
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Player Prop Odds
Bryson Stott Player Prop Odds:
Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+460)
Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-160)
Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+210)
Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+115)
Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+105)
Batter Stolen Bases: Over 0.5 (+430)
Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+180)
Player Analysis: Bryson Stott
Bryson Stott has been a reliable player for the Phillies, contributing in various facets of the game. This season, he has shown a solid ability to get on base and create scoring opportunities for his team. Stott has a knack for hitting singles, which is reflected in the favorable odds for him to achieve over 0.5 singles at +105. Additionally, his propensity to score runs makes the +115 odds on over 0.5 runs scored an attractive bet.
Analyzing his recent performance, Stott has been consistent at the plate, contributing crucial hits and maintaining a steady batting average. His ability to draw walks and get on base is a significant asset, especially when facing top-tier pitchers like Luis Gil. Stott's speed on the base paths also makes the over 0.5 stolen bases at +430 a tempting long shot for bettors looking for high-risk, high-reward opportunities.
Opposing Analysis
The Yankees' pitching staff, led by Luis Gil, has been effective in limiting opposing hitters this season. Gil's 3.10 ERA and 124 strikeouts indicate his ability to dominate on the mound. However, the Yankees' bullpen has shown vulnerability at times, which could provide Stott with opportunities to capitalize later in the game.
Defensively, the Yankees have been solid, but they have committed 59 errors, ranking them tied for 9th in the league. This defensive lapse could play to Stott's advantage, as he has the speed to put pressure on the defense and create scoring opportunities.
Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | Team | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Gil | Yankees | 10-5 | 3.10 | 124 |
| Zack Wheeler | Phillies | 10-4 | 2.55 | 133 |
Team Previews
New York Yankees
The Yankees' offense has been potent this season, ranking 5th in hits (916) and runs (512) while maintaining a .256 team batting average, good for 4th in the league. Aaron Judge continues to be the centerpiece of their lineup, leading the team with 37 home runs and 96 RBIs.
Their pitching staff, anchored by Luis Gil, has been equally impressive. The Yankees boast the 2nd best ERA in the league at 3.43 and have been effective in closing out games with 27 saves, tied for 11th. Their defense, while generally solid, has committed 59 errors, which could be a factor in close games.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies lead the league in runs scored (539) and have a respectable .250 team batting average. Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott have been key contributors, with Harper providing power and Stott adding consistency and speed.
On the mound, Zack Wheeler has been their ace, posting a 2.55 ERA and 133 strikeouts. The Phillies' pitching staff has been solid overall, with a 3.67 team ERA, ranking 5th in the league. However, their bullpen has shown some cracks, which could be exploited by a strong Yankees lineup.
Team Injuries
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | C | 10-Day IL (quadricep) |
| Nick Burdi | RP | 60-Day IL (hip) |
| Giancarlo Stanton | DH | 10-Day IL (hamstring) |
| Anthony Rizzo | 1B | 60-Day IL (wrist) |
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | SP | 15-Day IL (back) |
| Spencer Turnbull | SP | 15-Day IL (back) |
| Taijuan Walker | SP | 15-Day IL (index finger) |
| Dylan Covey | RP | 60-Day IL (shoulder) |
Recent Games
New York Yankees
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Boston | W8-2 | W |
| @ Boston | W11-8 (F/10) | W |
| @ Boston | L9-7 | L |
| vs New York | L12-3 | L |
| vs New York | L3-2 | L |
Philadelphia Phillies
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Cleveland | L4-3 | L |
| vs Cleveland | W8-0 | W |
| vs Cleveland | L3-1 | L |
| @ Minnesota | L5-4 | L |
| @ Minnesota | W3-0 | W |
Prediction
Given the recent performances and the current odds, the safest bet for Bryson Stott appears to be over 0.5 hits at -160. Stott's consistency at the plate and the Yankees' occasional defensive lapses make this a solid pick.
Another intriguing option is over 0.5 runs scored at +115, considering Stott's ability to get on base and the offensive firepower behind him in the lineup.
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