MLB Player Props Play: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets 7/25

- Lm Tipster
- Jul 25, 2024, 8:22:08 AM
MLB Player Props Play: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets 7/25
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Photo Credit: © Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Atlanta Braves (54-46) will be looking to end their four-game losing streak as they face off against the New York Mets (53-48) at Citi Field in New York on Thursday, July 25th at 7:10 PM EDT. This matchup holds significant weight in the NL East standings with both teams vying for superiority. The Braves, currently second in the division, have struggled recently with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games, while the Mets, sitting in third place, have fared better with a 7-3 record over the same span.
The Braves' offense, led by Marcell Ozuna who has accumulated 48 extra-base hits this season, will be up against a formidable Mets pitching staff. New York's pitching, spearheaded by Luis Severino, has been solid with Severino holding a 7-3 record and a 3.58 ERA. On the other hand, the Braves will counter with Chris Sale, who has been exceptional this season, boasting a 13-3 record and a 2.70 ERA.
Historically, these teams have been well-matched, splitting their six meetings this season at three games apiece. The Braves have a .251 team batting average, ranking 10th in the NL, while the Mets have a slightly lower .241 average, ranking 17th. The outcome of this game could hinge on the performance of key players and the ability of each team to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
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Player Prop Odds
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Francisco Alvarez Prop Odds:
Batter Doubles: 0.5 (Over: +480)
Batter Hits: 0.5 (Over: -135)
Batter RBIs: 0.5 (Over: +230)
Batter Runs Scored: 0.5 (Over: +130)
Batter Singles: 0.5 (Over: +145)
Batter Total Bases: 1.5 (Over: +185)
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Player Analysis: Francisco Alvarez
Francisco Alvarez has been a key component for the Mets this season, providing consistent offensive production. With a batting average of .259, Alvarez has demonstrated his ability to get on base and drive in runs. He has collected 21 home runs and 60 RBIs, showcasing his power and run-producing capabilities. Over the past 10 games, Alvarez has shown an uptick in performance, going 17-for-37 with two home runs and five RBIs, indicating that he is in a good hitting rhythm.
Opposing Analysis: Atlanta Braves Pitching
The Atlanta Braves pitching staff has had its ups and downs this season, with an overall ERA of 4.18, ranking 20th in the league. Chris Sale has been the standout performer for the Braves, with a stellar 13-3 record and a 2.70 ERA. Sale's ability to strike out batters (140 strikeouts in 110.0 innings) makes him a tough opponent for any hitter. However, the Braves' bullpen has been less reliable, which could provide opportunities for Alvarez to capitalize in later innings.
Pitching Probables
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| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 13-3 | 2.70 | 0.95 | 110.0 | 81 | 140 | 24 | 7 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 7-3 | 3.58 | 1.18 | 115.2 | 96 | 88 | 40 | 12 |
Team Previews
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have managed a .251 team batting average, ranking 10th in the NL. They have scored 493 runs, which is the 6th highest in the league, showing their ability to produce offense consistently. Their pitching, led by Chris Sale, has been a mixed bag with a team ERA of 4.18. The Braves' bullpen has struggled, which has contributed to their recent losing streak. Defensively, they have committed 70 errors, ranking 3rd in the league, indicating potential vulnerabilities in the field.
New York Mets
The Mets have a .241 team batting average, ranking 17th in the league. They have scored 422 runs, placing them 22nd in the league, indicating struggles with offensive production. However, their pitching has been a strength, with a team ERA of 3.52, ranking 3rd in the league. Luis Severino has been a significant contributor to their success on the mound. Defensively, the Mets have committed 42 errors, ranking 29th, which highlights their proficiency in the field.
Team Injuries
| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | CF | Hamstring | 60-Day IL |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | Wrist | 10-Day IL |
| Max Fried | SP | Forearm | 15-Day IL |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | RF | Knee | 60-Day IL |
| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Bader | CF | Ankle | Day-to-day |
| Starling Marte | RF | Knee | 10-Day IL |
| Christian Scott | RP | Elbow | 15-Day IL |
Recent Games
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| Date | Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jul 24 | vs Cincinnati | 4-9 | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | vs Cincinnati | 1-4 | L |
| Sun, Jul 21 | vs St. Louis | 2-6 | L |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs St. Louis | 5-9 | L |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs St. Louis | 3-2 F/10 | W |
| Date | Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jul 24 | @ New York | 12-3 | W |
| Tue, Jul 23 | @ New York | 3-2 | W |
| Mon, Jul 22 | @ Miami | 6-4 | W |
| Sun, Jul 21 | @ Miami | 2-4 | L |
| Sat, Jul 20 | @ Miami | 1-0 | W |
Prediction
For this matchup, we are focusing on Francisco Alvarez's player props. Given his recent form and the Braves’ bullpen struggles, the best value appears to be in Alvarez’s total bases prop. Alvarez has been hitting well lately, and with the Braves' bullpen being a potential weak spot, we can expect Alvarez to get his opportunities.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases (+185)
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