MLB Player Props Picks Today: Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles - 7/29

Big Ben Profits
Jul 29, 2024, 4:49:44 PM

Photo Credit: © James A. Pittman-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 29. This matchup features two teams with distinct trajectories this season. The Blue Jays, with a robust record of 62-43, have been dominant, showcasing strong performances both at home and on the road. On the other hand, the Orioles have struggled to find consistency, standing at 49-56 overall and facing challenges especially in their pitching and hitting departments.

Historically, these teams have had competitive matchups, but the Blue Jays have an edge in recent head-to-head games. The Orioles will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage, while the Blue Jays aim to continue their winning ways.

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Player Prop Odds

Ryan Mountcastle:

Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+290)
Batter Hits: Over 1.5 (+175)
Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+130)
Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (-120)
Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (-175)
Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (-110)

Player Analysis

Ryan Mountcastle has been a consistent performer for the Baltimore Orioles this season, showcasing his ability to contribute both in terms of power and average. He has an impressive batting average and has been a key figure in driving runs for his team. With odds of +290 for Over 0.5 doubles and +175 for Over 1.5 hits, Mountcastle's recent form suggests these are attainable targets.

Mountcastle's ability to get on base and score runs is also reflected in the odds for Over 0.5 runs scored at -120. Additionally, his knack for hitting singles and accumulating total bases makes the Over 1.5 total bases at -110 an appealing option for bettors.

Opposing Analysis

Facing the Toronto Blue Jays, Mountcastle will be up against Bowden Francis, whose ERA of 5.82 and WHIP of 1.47 suggest that he is prone to giving up hits. The Blue Jays' pitching staff ranks 8th in ERA, but Francis's individual performance has been inconsistent. This bodes well for Mountcastle's prop bets, as he should have opportunities to capitalize against a struggling pitcher.

Pitching Probables

Pitcher	W-L	ERA	Strikeouts
Bowden Francis (TOR)	3-2	5.82	34
Cade Povich (BAL)	1-4	6.27	24

Team Previews

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have been impressive this season, ranking 6th in hits (915) and 4th in runs (522). Their batting average of .252 places them 9th in the league, and they have a strong bullpen with 33 saves, ranking 5th. Defensively, they have committed 51 errors, positioning them in the middle of the pack.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles, on the other hand, have struggled with hitting, ranking 24th in hits (824) and 25th in runs (430). Their batting average of .238 is below average, and their pitching staff has an ERA of 4.51, ranking 27th. The Orioles have also committed 58 errors, indicating defensive struggles.

Team Injuries

Toronto Blue Jays

Player	Position	Updated	Injury	Injury Status
Kevin Kiermaier	CF	Sun, Jul 28	Hip	Probable for Jul 29

Baltimore Orioles

Player	Position	Updated	Injury	Injury Status
John Means	SP	Sat, Jul 27	Elbow	Out for the season

Recent Games

Toronto Blue Jays

Opponent	Score	W/L
vs Detroit	L 5-4	L
vs Detroit	L 7-3	L
vs Detroit	W 5-4	W
vs Tampa Bay	L 4-2	L
vs Tampa Bay	W 6-3	W

Baltimore Orioles

Opponent	Score	W/L
@ Texas	W 9-1	W
@ Texas	W 8-4	W
@ Texas	L 3-2	L
@ Miami	L 6-3	L
@ Miami	L 6-3	L

Prediction

Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)

Based on Ryan Mountcastle's current form and the pitching struggles of Bowden Francis, the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop at -110 offers good value. Mountcastle has the ability to get multiple hits in a game, and with Francis's higher ERA and WHIP, Mountcastle should have opportunities to rack up total bases.

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