MLB Player Props Odds Analysis: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
- Mr Wager
- Jul 26, 2024, 7:57:10 AM
MLB Player Props Odds Analysis: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
Photo Credit: © Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Atlanta Braves aim to halt their five-game losing streak as they face off against the New York Mets on Friday at 7:10 PM EDT at Citi Field in Queens, New York. The Braves, currently second in the NL East with a 54-47 record, are looking to regain their form on the road where they hold a 24-26 record. On the other hand, the Mets, who sit just behind the Braves with a 54-48 record, boast a solid 27-26 home record and have been performing well when scoring five or more runs, holding a 37-15 record in such games.
In their head-to-head matchups this season, the Mets have a slight edge, leading the series 4-3. The Braves have been powered by Marcell Ozuna, who has 28 home runs and is hitting .305, and Austin Riley, who has been consistent over the last ten games. Francisco Lindor has been a standout performer for the Mets, featuring 27 doubles and 22 home runs. The Mets have outscored their opponents by 12 runs in their last ten games, while the Braves have been outscored by 13 runs in the same span.
Both teams are dealing with significant injuries. The Mets have several key players on the IL, including Ronny Mauricio and Kodai Senga. The Braves' injury list includes stars like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider. This game will be crucial for both teams as they battle for position in the highly competitive NL East.
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Player Prop Odds
Adam Duvall Player Prop Odds:
- Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-135)
- Batter Home Runs: Over 0.5 (+470)
- Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+180)
- Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+125)
- Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+145)
- Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+185)
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Player Analysis
Adam Duvall has been a key figure for the Braves, especially in the power department. Known for his ability to hit home runs, Duvall's prop odds for hitting a home run (+470) offer significant value. In the 2024 season, Duvall has demonstrated his power, and his ability to drive in runs makes the RBIs over 0.5 (+180) an intriguing option as well. He’s also a reliable run scorer, making the runs scored over 0.5 (+125) worth considering.
Opposing Analysis
The New York Mets will be sending Kodai Senga to the mound. Although Senga's stats are not yet available, it’s important to note that the Braves' lineup has been inconsistent recently. The Mets' pitching staff has an ERA of 3.50, ranking third in the league, which could pose a challenge for Duvall and the Braves' hitters. However, the Braves’ offense, which ranks fourth in the NL with 115 home runs, has the potential to break through.
Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 5-5 | 3.92 | 101 |
| Kodai Senga (NYM) | 0-0 | N/A | N/A |
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Team Previews
Atlanta Braves
The Braves are an offensively potent team, ranking fourth in the NL with 115 home runs. They have a .249 team batting average, which is 11th in the league, and have scored 496 runs, ranking sixth. Their pitching staff, however, has struggled as indicated by their 4.15 ERA, ranking 20th in the league. The Braves' fielding has also been an issue, with 70 errors, the third most in the league. Despite their recent slump, the Braves are a dangerous team capable of turning things around quickly.
New York Mets
The Mets have relied heavily on their pitching this season, boasting a team ERA of 3.50, the third best in the league. Their offense has been less consistent, with a .240 team batting average (17th in the league) and 424 runs scored (tied for 20th). Defensively, the Mets have been solid, committing just 43 errors (tied for 28th). The Mets' ability to score in bunches, especially when they reach five or more runs, has been a key factor in their success.
Team Injuries
New York Mets
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Harrison Bader | CF | Day-to-day (ankle) |
| Christian Scott | RP | 15-Day IL (elbow) |
| Reed Garrett | RP | 15-Day IL (elbow) |
| Drew Smith | RP | 60-Day IL (elbow) |
| Brooks Raley | RP | 60-Day IL (elbow) |
| Starling Marte | RF | 10-Day IL (knee) |
| Sean Reid-Foley | RP | 15-Day IL (shoulder) |
| Shintaro Fujinami | RP | 60-Day IL (shoulder) |
| Kodai Senga | SP | 60-Day IL (shoulder) |
| Ronny Mauricio | SS | 60-Day IL (knee) |
Atlanta Braves
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | OF | 60-Day IL (hamstring) |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 10-Day IL (wrist) |
| Max Fried | SP | 15-Day IL (forearm) |
| Raymond Kerr | RP | 60-Day IL (elbow) |
| Spencer Strider | SP | 60-Day IL (elbow) |
| Hurston Waldrep | RP | 15-Day IL (elbow) |
| Huascar Ynoa | RP | 60-Day IL (elbow) |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | OF | 60-Day IL (knee) |
| Jimmy Herget | RP | 15-Day IL (shoulder) |
| Tyler Matzek | RP | 60-Day IL (elbow) |
| Angel Perdomo | RP | 60-Day IL (elbow) |
Recent Games
Atlanta Braves
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs St. Louis | Postponed | - |
| vs St. Louis | W 3-2 (F/10) | W |
| vs St. Louis | L 9-5 | L |
| vs St. Louis | L 6-2 | L |
| vs Cincinnati | L 4-1 | L |
New York Mets
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Miami | L 6-4 | L |
| @ Miami | W 1-0 | W |
| @ Miami | L 4-2 | L |
| @ Miami | W 6-4 | W |
| @ New York | W 3-2 | W |
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Prediction
Given the odds and current form, the best player prop bet for Adam Duvall is to go with Over 0.5 Hits at -135. Duvall has shown consistent hitting ability, and despite the strong Mets pitching, he can still get on base. The odds for a home run at +470 also provide value for those looking for a riskier bet with a higher potential payout.
Pick: Over 0.5 Hits (-135)
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