MLB Player Props Forecast: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets - 7/28
- Wolfeofbetting
- Jul 28, 2024, 4:05:18 AM
MLB Player Props Forecast: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets - 7/28
Photo Credit: © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The New York Mets will face the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on Sunday, July 28, 2024, at 1:40 p.m. EDT. The Mets lead the series 2-1 and will look to secure a series win at home. The Mets have a 55-49 record overall and are 28-27 at home. Notably, the team has a strong record of 25-10 in games where they did not allow a home run. The Braves, on the other hand, hold a 55-48 record overall and are 25-27 on the road. Atlanta’s pitching staff boasts a collective 3.50 ERA, ranking second in the National League.
The Mets have had the upper hand in their season series against the Braves, leading 5-4. This matchup will be the 10th time these teams face off this season. Key players for the Mets include Pete Alonso, who has 24 doubles, 20 home runs, and 53 RBIs, and Jose Iglesias, who is batting .389 over the last 10 games with a double, a triple, and two home runs. For the Braves, Austin Riley has been a standout with 22 doubles, two triples, 13 home runs, and 40 RBIs, while Marcell Ozuna has four home runs in his last 10 games.
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Player Prop Odds
Matt Olson:
- Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+460)
- Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-175)
- Batter Home Runs: Over 0.5 (+460)
- Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+140)
- Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (-125)
- Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+105)
- Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+150)
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Player Analysis
Matt Olson has been a consistent performer for the Braves this season. He has a batting average of .254 with 22 home runs and 63 RBIs. Additionally, he has accumulated 417.5 MLBRating points, making him one of the top hitters in the Braves lineup. Olson’s power at the plate is evident as he has a high propensity for extra-base hits, including home runs and doubles.
Opposing Analysis
Olson will be facing David Peterson of the Mets, who has a 5-0 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 48.2 innings this season. Peterson has allowed 49 hits and 5 home runs, striking out 36 batters while walking 23. Despite his strong record, Peterson has shown vulnerability, especially against power hitters like Olson. The Mets bullpen also ranks 14th in saves with an ERA of 3.52, providing additional opportunities for Olson to capitalize late in the game.
Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Lopez (ATL) | 7-4 | 2.12 | 1.19 | 101.2 | 85 | 100 | 36 | 7 |
| D. Peterson (NYM) | 5-0 | 3.14 | 1.48 | 48.2 | 49 | 36 | 23 | 5 |
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Team Previews
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have a strong overall record of 55-48, with a 25-27 record on the road. Their hitting ranks 9th in the league with 884 hits and 5th with 504 runs. The Braves’ pitching staff has been formidable, with a collective ERA of 4.15, ranking 21st in the league. Defensively, the Braves have committed 70 errors, placing them 3rd in the league.
New York Mets
The Mets, with a 55-49 overall record and a 28-27 home record, have been solid this season. Offensively, they rank 18th with 825 hits and 21st with 428 runs. The Mets’ pitching staff has been stellar, boasting a 3.52 ERA, ranking 3rd in the league. Defensively, they have committed 45 errors, ranking 27th in the league.
Team Injuries
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | OF | 60-Day IL (hamstring) |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 10-Day IL (wrist) |
| Max Fried | SP | 15-Day IL (forearm) |
| Harrison Bader | CF | Day-to-day (ankle) |
| Kodai Senga | SP | Out for the season (calf) |
Recent Games
Atlanta Braves
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ New York | W 4-0 | W |
| @ New York | L 8-4 | L |
| @ New York | L 3-2 F/10 | L |
| vs Cincinnati | L 9-4 | L |
| vs Cincinnati | L 4-1 | L |
New York Mets
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Atlanta | L 4-0 | L |
| vs Atlanta | W 8-4 | W |
| vs Atlanta | W 3-2 F/10 | W |
| @ New York | W 12-3 | W |
| @ New York | W 3-2 | W |
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Prediction
Pick: Matt Olson to hit Over 0.5 RBIs (+140)
Reasoning: Olson has been in good form recently and has a favorable matchup against David Peterson, who has shown vulnerability against power hitters. Given Olson's ability to drive in runs and the Mets' bullpen's potential weaknesses, this prop bet offers good value.
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