MLB Player Props Expert Picks: Pirates vs Diamondbacks 7/28

MLB Player Props Expert Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks 7/28

Photo Credit: © Owen Ziliak/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

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Game Summary

The Pittsburgh Pirates (52-52) are set to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (55-50) at Chase Field in Phoenix on Sunday, July 28, 2024. The game is scheduled to begin at 4:10 p.m. EDT. The Pirates are currently third in the NL Central, while the Diamondbacks hold the same position in the NL West.

Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance recently. The Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 games, showcasing a solid .258 batting average and a commendable 3.38 ERA. They have outscored their opponents by seven runs over this stretch. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have been even more impressive, boasting a 7-3 record in their last 10 games with a .271 batting average and a 3.74 ERA, outscoring their opponents by 20 runs.

Historically, the Pirates and Diamondbacks have played close games. In their last meeting, on Saturday, the Diamondbacks came out on top with a 9-5 victory, largely thanks to Jake McCarthy's five-hit performance. Arizona's offense has been strong, with Ketel Marte leading the charge with 45 extra-base hits, including 23 home runs. Corbin Carroll has also been in great form, hitting four home runs and driving in 11 runs in his last 10 games.

For the Pirates, Oneil Cruz has been a standout performer, leading the team with a .252 batting average, 16 home runs, and 52 RBIs. He will be a key player to watch in this matchup.

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Player Prop Odds

For Oneil Cruz:

• Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+330), Under 0.5 (-525)
• Batter Home Runs: Over 0.5 (+350), Under 0.5 (-575)
• Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+155), Under 0.5 (-215)
• Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (-110), Under 0.5 (-125)
• Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+110), Under 0.5 (-150)
• Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+110), Under 1.5 (-145)

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Player Analysis

Oneil Cruz has been a key player for the Pirates this season. He leads the team with a .252 batting average, 16 home runs, and 52 RBIs. Cruz's consistency at the plate has been vital for Pittsburgh, and he has shown the ability to come through in clutch situations. Over his last 10 games, Cruz has continued to produce, and his power numbers suggest he is always a threat to go deep.

Given his recent form and overall performance this season, the odds for Cruz hitting a home run at +350 could provide significant value, especially against a Diamondbacks pitching staff that has struggled at times.

Opposing Analysis

The Diamondbacks will be sending Yilber Diaz to the mound. Diaz has a 1-1 record with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 15 innings pitched this season. He has struggled to keep runners off base, giving up 17 hits and 4 walks in those innings. Diaz's high ERA and WHIP indicate that he is prone to giving up runs, which bodes well for Cruz and the Pirates' offense.

Arizona's bullpen has been solid but not spectacular, with a team ERA of 3.78, which ranks 11th in MLB. However, the Pirates' hitters have shown they can get to opposing pitchers, especially when they manage to get more hits than their opponents, boasting a 38-4 record in such games.

Pitching Probables

Pitcher	Team	W-L	ERA	Strikeouts
Mitch Keller	PIT	10-5	3.34	108
Yilber Diaz	ARI	1-1	5.40	7

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Team Previews

Pittsburgh Pirates

Hitting: The Pirates have a solid offense, ranking 8th in MLB with 888 hits and 3rd in runs scored with 513. They have a team batting average of .253, also ranking 8th.

Relief Pitching: Their bullpen has been middle-of-the-pack, with 24 saves (tied for 19th). The team's overall ERA of 4.49 ranks 26th, showing they have room for improvement in pitching.

Fielding: The Pirates have committed 42 errors, which ranks 30th, indicating a need for better defensive play.

Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller has been their standout starter with a 10-5 record and a 3.34 ERA, along with 108 strikeouts.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Hitting: The Diamondbacks rank 26th in MLB with 807 hits and 23rd in runs scored with 425. Their team batting average is .232, which ranks 25th.

Relief Pitching: They have 26 saves (tied for 14th) and a team ERA of 3.78, ranking 11th, which is a relative strength.

Fielding: The Diamondbacks have committed 50 errors, which ties them for 21st in MLB.

Starting Pitchers: Yilber Diaz has struggled with a 5.40 ERA, and the team will need a solid outing from him to compete.

Team Injuries

Player	Position	Injury Status
Bailey Falter	SP	15-Day IL (arm)
Daulton Jefferies	SP	15-Day IL (elbow)
Jared Jones	SP	15-Day IL (lat)
Ryan Borucki	RP	60-Day IL (tricep)
Dauri Moreta	RP	60-Day IL (elbow)
Endy Rodriguez	RP	60-Day IL (elbow)
Johan Oviedo	SP	60-Day IL (elbow)

Player	Position	Injury Status
Blake Walston	SP	15-Day IL (elbow)
Merrill Kelly	SP	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Kyle Nelson	RP	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Drey Jameson	RP	60-Day IL (elbow)

Recent Games

Pittsburgh Pirates

Opponent	Score	W/L
Philadelphia	W 8-7	W
Philadelphia	W 4-1	W
Philadelphia	L 6-0	L
St. Louis	W 2-1	W
St. Louis	L 2-1	L

Arizona Diamondbacks

Opponent	Score	W/L
Chicago	W 5-2	W
Chicago	W 3-0	W
Chicago	L 2-1 (10)	L
Kansas City	L 10-4	L
Kansas City	W 6-2	W

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Prediction

Given the current form of Oneil Cruz and the struggling Diamondbacks pitching staff, the player prop for Cruz to hit a home run offers great value at +350. Yilber Diaz’s high ERA and WHIP, combined with Cruz's power, make this a favorable bet. Additionally, considering Cruz's overall impact, another good value pick is for Cruz to have over 1.5 total bases at +110.

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