MLB Player Props Expert Picks: Braves vs Mets 7/26
- Big Ben Profits
- Jul 26, 2024, 9:39:29 AM
MLB Player Props Expert Picks: Braves vs Mets 7/26
Photo Credit: © Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Atlanta Braves (54-47, second in the NL East) will face the New York Mets (54-48, third in the NL East) on Friday, July 26, 2024, at Citi Field in New York. The game is set to start at 7:10 p.m. EDT. The Braves are looking to break a five-game losing streak, while the Mets aim to continue their recent success. The Mets have a home record of 27-26 and have won 54 games overall this season. They excel when they score five or more runs, boasting a 37-15 record in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have a slightly losing record on the road at 24-26 but have still managed to hit an impressive 115 home runs this season, ranking fourth in the NL.
The season series between these two teams is tightly contested, with the Mets leading 4-3. Key performers for the Mets include Francisco Lindor, who has accumulated 27 doubles and 22 home runs, and Jose Iglesias, who has been hot over the last 10 games. For the Braves, Marcell Ozuna stands out with 28 home runs, 47 walks, and 80 RBIs, hitting .305. Austin Riley has also been effective recently.
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Player Prop Odds
For Matt Olson, the player prop odds are as follows:
- Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-155)
- Batter Home Runs: Over 0.5 (+440)
- Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+165)
- Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (-110)
- Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+125)
- Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+160)
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Player Analysis
Matt Olson has been an essential player for the Braves this season. He has consistently delivered in the power department, boasting 28 home runs and 80 RBIs. Olson has a knack for getting on base, evident from his .305 batting average and 47 walks. His ability to hit both for power and average makes him a significant threat in the Braves' lineup. The odds for Olson to hit a home run (+440) or record an RBI (+165) offer substantial value given his current form.
Opposing Analysis
The Mets' pitching staff will be crucial in containing Olson. Kodai Senga is scheduled to start for the Mets. While Senga has yet to pitch this season, the Mets' bullpen has been reliable, with an overall team ERA of 3.50, ranking third in the league. However, given Olson's ability to hit against both left and right-handed pitching, he will be a challenging out for Senga and the Mets' relievers.
Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 5-5 | 3.92 | 1.22 | 103.1 | 87 | 101 | 39 | 11 |
| Kodai Senga (NYM) | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
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Team Previews
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have been a strong hitting team this season, ranking 9th in hits (876) and 6th in runs (496). They have an average batting average of .249, placing them 11th in the league. The Braves' bullpen has also been solid, recording 28 saves, which is 9th best in the league. However, their pitching staff has struggled at times, with a team ERA of 4.15, ranking 20th. Defensively, the Braves have committed 70 errors, the 3rd most in the league.
New York Mets
The Mets' offense has been average, ranking 18th in hits (818) and tied for 20th in runs (424). They have a team batting average of .240, placing them 17th. The Mets' pitching staff has been the team's strength, with a team ERA of 3.50, ranking 3rd. The bullpen has also been reliable, with 26 saves, tied for 13th. Defensively, the Mets have committed 43 errors, tied for 28th in the league.
Team Injuries
Atlanta Braves
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | CF | 60-Day IL (hamstring) |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 10-Day IL (wrist) |
| Max Fried | SP | 15-Day IL (forearm) |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | RF | 60-Day IL (knee) |
New York Mets
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Harrison Bader | CF | Day-to-day (ankle) |
| Kodai Senga | SP | 60-Day IL (shoulder) |
| Starling Marte | RF | 10-Day IL (knee) |
Recent Games
Atlanta Braves
| Date | Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | vs St. Louis | Postponed | Postponed |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs St. Louis | W 3-2 F/10 | W |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs St. Louis | L 9-5 | L |
| Sun, Jul 21 | vs St. Louis | L 6-2 | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | vs Cincinnati | L 4-1 | L |
New York Mets
| Date | Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | @ Miami | L 6-4 | L |
| Sat, Jul 20 | @ Miami | W 1-0 | W |
| Sun, Jul 21 | @ Miami | L 4-2 | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | @ Miami | W 6-4 | W |
| Tue, Jul 23 | @ New York | W 3-2 | W |
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Prediction
Considering Matt Olson's current form and the opposing pitching setup, the following props offer good value:
- Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-155)
- Batter Home Runs: Over 0.5 (+440)
- Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+165)
- Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+160)
Olson's power-hitting ability and consistent performance make the Over 1.5 Total Bases prop a strong play. Given the Mets' starting pitcher Kodai Senga's lack of experience this season, Olson has a favorable matchup to exploit.
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