MLB Player Props Expert Picks: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets - 7/27
- A Plus Picks
- Jul 27, 2024, 9:04:22 AM
MLB Player Props Expert Picks: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets - 7/27
Photo Credit: © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Atlanta Braves are set to face off against the New York Mets on Saturday, July 27th at 4:10 PM EDT at Citi Field in Queens, New York. The Braves, currently holding a 54-48 record and sitting third in the NL East, are looking to halt their six-game losing streak. Their opponents, the Mets, have a slightly better record at 55-48 and are second in the division. The Mets have been solid at home with a 28-26 record at Citi Field and have shown strength by winning 38 out of 53 games where they've scored at least five runs.
This game marks the ninth meeting between these division rivals this season, with the Mets leading the series 5-3. Recent history favors the Mets, as they have won seven of their last ten games while outscoring opponents by 15 runs. Conversely, the Braves have struggled, going 3-7 in their last ten games and being outscored by 16 runs. Top performers for the Mets include Francisco Lindor, who leads the team with 22 home runs, and Jose Iglesias, who has been on fire with a .459 batting average over the last ten games. For the Braves, Marcell Ozuna has been a standout with a .308 batting average and 29 homers.
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Player Prop Odds
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Here are the player prop odds for Francisco Lindor:
- Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+320)
- Batter Hits: Over 1.5 (+230)
- Batter Home Runs: Over 0.5 (+450)
- Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+160)
- Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (-140)
- Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (-125)
- Batter Stolen Bases: Over 0.5 (+300)
- Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+105)
Player Analysis
Francisco Lindor has been a cornerstone for the Mets' offense this season. With 22 home runs and a slugging percentage of .480, Lindor is a constant threat at the plate. Over the last ten games, he has continued to show his value, contributing significantly to the Mets' 7-3 record in that span. Lindor's consistency and power make him a strong candidate for player prop bets, especially given his ability to come through in clutch situations.
Opposing Analysis
On the mound for the Braves is Spencer Schwellenbach, who has had a rocky season with a 3-5 record and a 4.62 ERA. Schwellenbach has allowed 49 hits in 50.2 innings pitched, which could spell trouble against a potent Mets lineup. The Mets have shown the ability to capitalize on shaky pitching, as evidenced by their impressive run over their last ten games. Schwellenbach will need to be at his best to contain the likes of Lindor and the rest of the Mets' hitters.
Pitching Probables
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| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 3-5 | 4.62 | 1.16 | 50.2 | 49 | 49 | 10 | 7 |
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 2-4 | 5.08 | 1.44 | 39.0 | 37 | 49 | 19 | 3 |
Team Previews
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have been a mixed bag this season. Offensively, they rank 5th in runs scored (504) and 9th in hits (884). However, their pitching has been less reliable, with a team ERA of 4.15, ranking 21st in the league. Their defense has also been shaky, committing 70 errors, the 3rd most in MLB.
New York Mets
The Mets have been more balanced, ranking 3rd in team ERA at 3.52. Their offense, led by Francisco Lindor, has been solid but not spectacular, ranking 21st in runs scored (428) and 18th in hits (825). Defensively, they are among the better teams, committing just 45 errors, which ranks 27th in the league.
Team Injuries
New York Mets
| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | SP | Calf | Day-to-day |
| Shintaro Fujinami | RP | Shoulder | 60-Day IL |
| Harrison Bader | CF | Ankle | Day-to-day |
Atlanta Braves
| Player | Position | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | OF | Hamstring | 60-Day IL |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | Wrist | 10-Day IL |
| Max Fried | SP | Forearm | 15-Day IL |
Recent Games
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Atlanta Braves
| Date | Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | vs St. Louis | Postponed | Postponed |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs St. Louis | W 3-2 F/10 | W |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs St. Louis | L 9-5 | L |
| Sun, Jul 21 | vs St. Louis | L 6-2 | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | vs Cincinnati | L 4-1 | L |
New York Mets
| Date | Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | @ Miami | L 6-4 | L |
| Sat, Jul 20 | @ Miami | W 1-0 | W |
| Sun, Jul 21 | @ Miami | L 4-2 | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | @ Miami | W 6-4 | W |
| Tue, Jul 23 | @ New York | W 3-2 | W |
Prediction
Given Francisco Lindor's recent form and the struggles of Atlanta's pitching staff, we predict that he will surpass 1.5 total bases in this game. With the odds at +105, this prop bet offers good value.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases for Francisco Lindor (+105)
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