MLB Player Props Expert Advice: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks 7/28

MLB Player Props Expert Advice: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks 7/28

Photo Credit: © Owen Ziliak/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Game Summary

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks are set to clash at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, on July 28. Both teams have shown mixed performances lately, with the Pirates holding a 55-50 record and the Diamondbacks at 52-52. The Pirates have been particularly strong at home with a 28-24 record, while their road performance stands at 27-26. Similarly, the Diamondbacks exhibit balanced home (26-26) and away (26-26) records.

Historically, the matchups between these two teams have been competitive. The Pirates have a slight edge in runs scored this season, ranking 3rd in the league with 513 runs, while the Diamondbacks rank 23rd with 425 runs. However, pitching stats favor the Diamondbacks, with an ERA of 3.78 compared to the Pirates' 4.49.

The Diamondbacks are coming off a series of strong performances, winning four of their last five games, whereas the Pirates have split their last five games, showing inconsistency. In terms of injuries, the Pirates have a few key players like Nick Gonzales and Rowdy Tellez listed as probable, while the Diamondbacks will miss Merrill Kelly due to a shoulder injury.

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Player Prop Odds

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Corbin Carroll

• Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+330), Under 0.5 (-525)
• Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+215), Under 0.5 (-310)
• Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (-105), Under 0.5 (-135)
• Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (-105), Under 0.5 (-125)
• Batter Stolen Bases: Over 0.5 (+320), Under 0.5 (-525)
• Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+130), Under 1.5 (-175)

Player Analysis

Corbin Carroll has been a significant contributor for the Diamondbacks this season. With a batting average of .252, he has accumulated 16 home runs and 52 RBIs. Carroll has impressed with his ability to get on base and create scoring opportunities, evidenced by his rate of runs scored and total bases.

Carroll's versatility at the plate makes him a threat in multiple categories. He has a knack for hitting doubles, and his speed on the base paths makes him a stolen base threat. Given his recent performances, Carroll's prop odds for over 1.5 total bases (+130) and over 0.5 runs scored (-105) are particularly enticing.

Opposing Analysis

The Pirates' pitching staff has had its struggles this season, with an ERA of 4.49. Yilber Diaz, the probable starter, has a 5.40 ERA and has allowed 17 hits over 15 innings pitched. His WHIP of 1.40 suggests that he allows a fair number of base runners, which could play into Carroll's strengths.

Diaz has shown vulnerability against both left-handed and right-handed hitters, making him susceptible to Carroll's hitting prowess. The Pirates' bullpen, with a moderate save rate of 24 (tied for 19th), also indicates that late-game opportunities for runs and hits are possible.

Pitching Probables

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Player	W-L	ERA	Strikeouts
Mitch Keller (ARI)	10-5	3.34	108
Yilber Diaz (PIT)	1-1	5.40	7

Team Previews

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates' hitting has been a strong suit this season, ranking 8th in hits (888) and 3rd in runs (513). Their team batting average stands at .253, placing them 8th in the league. However, their pitching has been less reliable, with a team ERA of 4.49, ranking 26th. The bullpen has shown potential but remains inconsistent.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have struggled offensively, ranking 26th in hits (807) and 23rd in runs (425). Their team batting average of .232 ranks 25th. However, they have performed better on the mound, with a team ERA of 3.78, ranking 11th. Their bullpen has been relatively more stable, holding a tied 14th position in saves (26).

Team Injuries

Player	Position	Injury	Status
Nick Gonzales	2B	Groin	Probable for Jul 28
Rowdy Tellez	1B	Back	Probable for Jul 28
Jared Jones	SP	Lat	Expected to be out until at least Aug 8
Merrill Kelly	SP	Shoulder	Expected to be out until at least Aug 16

Recent Games

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Date	Opponent	Score	W/L
Fri, Jul 19	vs Philadelphia	W 8-7	W
Sat, Jul 20	vs Philadelphia	W 4-1	W
Sun, Jul 21	vs Philadelphia	L 6-0	L
Mon, Jul 22	vs St. Louis	W 2-1	W
Tue, Jul 23	vs St. Louis	L 2-1	L

Arizona Diamondbacks

Date	Opponent	Score	W/L
Fri, Jul 19	@ Chicago	W 5-2	W
Sat, Jul 20	@ Chicago	W 3-0	W
Sun, Jul 21	@ Chicago	L 2-1 (10)	L
Mon, Jul 22	@ Kansas City	L 10-4	L
Tue, Jul 23	@ Kansas City	W 6-2	W

Prediction

Based on the analysis, Corbin Carroll is poised for a strong performance against the Pirates. Given Yilber Diaz's struggles on the mound, Carroll's ability to get on base, and his recent form, the prop bet for Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) offers good value.

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