MLB Player Props Betting Analysis: New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies 7/29
- A Plus Picks
- Jul 29, 2024, 4:11:50 PM
MLB Player Props Betting Analysis: New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies
Photo Credit: © Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies kick off a highly anticipated three-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, July 29th, at 6:40 p.m. EDT. The Phillies, who lead the NL East with a 65-40 record, have been dominant at home, boasting a 38-18 record. Meanwhile, the Yankees, sitting second in the AL East with a 62-45 record, have also been strong on the road with a 35-22 record.
Philadelphia comes into this game with an impressive 46-6 record when scoring five or more runs, thanks largely to the contributions of Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. Harper has been a powerhouse, tallying 22 doubles, 24 home runs, and 67 RBI this season. Turner, though in a bit of a slump over the last ten games, is still a critical component of the Phillies' lineup.
On the other side, the Yankees are led by Aaron Judge, who has been nothing short of spectacular. Judge has 37 home runs, 84 walks, and 96 RBI while hitting .314. Juan Soto has also been red-hot, going 15-for-42 with five doubles, a triple, four home runs, and eight RBI in his last ten games.
Both teams have faced challenges recently. The Phillies are 3-7 in their last ten games with a .220 batting average and a 5.12 ERA, getting outscored by 11 runs. The Yankees are 4-6 in their last ten, with a .277 batting average and a 4.94 ERA, getting narrowly outscored by one run.
Scan to Download the iOS App
Player Prop Odds
Aaron Judge Prop Odds:
- Batter Doubles (0.5) - Over: +400.0
- Batter Hits (1.5) - Over: +230.0
- Batter Home Runs (0.5) - Over: +215.0
- Batter RBIs (0.5) - Over: +105.0
- Batter Runs Scored (0.5) - Over: -165.0
- Batter Singles (0.5) - Over: +120.0
- Batter Total Bases (1.5) - Over: -115.0
Player Analysis
Aaron Judge: The Yankees' slugger has been in phenomenal form this season, hitting .314 with 37 home runs and 96 RBIs. His ability to get on base, evidenced by his 84 walks, makes him a constant threat. Judge has been particularly effective against right-handed pitchers, and with Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Phillies, he will need to bring his A-game. Judge's recent performance has been stellar, and he seems poised to continue his hot streak. Given his current form, the odds on Judge hitting over 1.5 total bases (-115) and hitting a home run (+215) look particularly enticing.
Opposing Analysis
Zack Wheeler: The Phillies' ace has been dominant this season with a 10-4 record, a 2.55 ERA, and 133 strikeouts. Wheeler is particularly effective at home, where he has an ERA under 3.00. However, the Yankees' lineup is one of the toughest he will face, with power hitters like Judge, Soto, and Stanton. Wheeler's ability to keep the ball in the park will be crucial, especially against a Yankees team that ranks fifth in home runs this season.
Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | Team | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Gil | Yankees | 10-5 | 3.10 | 124 |
| Zack Wheeler | Phillies | 10-4 | 2.55 | 133 |
Team Previews
New York Yankees: The Yankees have been an offensive juggernaut this season, ranking fifth in hits (916) and runs (512) while maintaining a .256 team batting average. Their pitching staff has also been impressive, with a team ERA of 3.43, second-best in the league. Defensively, the Yankees have committed 59 errors, ranking ninth. The Yankees' bullpen has been solid, with 27 saves, tied for 11th in MLB.
Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies lead the league in runs scored (539) and have a solid team batting average of .250. Their pitching staff, led by Wheeler, has a respectable ERA of 3.67, ranking fifth. However, the Phillies have committed 63 errors, which could be a concern against a disciplined Yankees lineup. The Phillies' bullpen has also recorded 27 saves, tied for 11th in MLB.
Team Injuries
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | C | 10-Day IL (quadricep) |
| Nick Burdi | RP | 60-Day IL (hip) |
| Giancarlo Stanton | DH | 10-Day IL (hamstring) |
| Anthony Rizzo | 1B | 60-Day IL (wrist) |
| Clarke Schmidt | SP | 60-Day IL (lat) |
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | SP | 15-Day IL (back) |
| Luis Ortiz | RP | 60-Day IL (ankle) |
| Spencer Turnbull | SP | 15-Day IL (back) |
| Taijuan Walker | SP | 15-Day IL (index finger) |
| Dylan Covey | RP | 60-Day IL (shoulder) |
Recent Games
New York Yankees
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Tampa Bay | 6-1 | W |
| vs Tampa Bay | 1-9 | L |
| vs Tampa Bay | 4-6 | L |
| vs Tampa Bay | 9-1 | W |
| vs New York | 2-3 | L |
Philadelphia Phillies
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Pittsburgh | 7-8 | L |
| @ Pittsburgh | 1-4 | L |
| @ Pittsburgh | 6-0 | W |
| @ Minnesota | 2-7 | L |
| @ Minnesota | 3-0 | W |
Prediction
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases for Aaron Judge (-115)
Reasoning: Aaron Judge has been in exceptional form this season and has a favorable matchup against Zack Wheeler. Given his power-hitting capabilities and recent performance, we expect Judge to accumulate over 1.5 total bases in this game. The odds of -115 provide good value considering Judge's ability to hit extra-base hits and his overall offensive prowess.
Get more expert picks!
