MLB Player Props Betting Analysis: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros 7/28

- Big Ben Profits
- Jul 28, 2024, 1:46:02 AM
MLB Player Props Betting Analysis: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros 7/28
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Photo Credit: © Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Houston Astros on July 28th at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. The game features two teams with strong offensive capabilities and intriguing pitching matchups. The Dodgers, led by starter Spencer Arrighetti, will look to bounce back after a couple of tough losses against the Astros. Arrighetti, who has a 4-8 record with a 5.65 ERA, has struggled with consistency this season. On the other hand, the Astros will counter with River Ryan, who has shown promise in his limited appearances, boasting a 0.00 ERA over 5.1 innings pitched.
Historically, the Dodgers and Astros have had intense battles, with both teams displaying prowess both on the mound and at the plate. The Dodgers are currently second in the league in hits with 927 and have a solid .262 team batting average. The Astros, not far behind, have 908 hits and a .254 average. This game promises to be a high-stakes matchup with significant playoff implications.
Player Prop Odds
Let's take a look at the player prop odds for Alex Bregman:
- Batter Doubles (0.5): Over +350
- Batter Hits (1.5): Over +240
- Batter RBIs (0.5): Over +180
- Batter Runs Scored (0.5): Over -140
- Batter Singles (0.5): Over -125
- Batter Total Bases (1.5): Over +120
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Player Analysis
Alex Bregman has been a key player for the Houston Astros this season. He has consistently delivered strong performances at the plate, contributing significantly to the team's success. Bregman has a batting average of .318, which is among the best in the league. He also has 32 home runs and 76 RBIs, making him one of the most productive hitters in the lineup. His ability to get on base and drive in runs will be crucial in this matchup against the Dodgers.
Opposing Analysis
For the Dodgers’ pitching, Spencer Arrighetti will need to step up his game. Arrighetti has had a rough season, with an ERA of 5.65 and a WHIP of 1.58 over 86 innings pitched. He has allowed 91 hits and 45 walks, which could be a concern against a potent Astros lineup. The Dodgers' bullpen will also need to be effective, as the Astros have shown they can capitalize on any pitching mistakes.
Pitching Probables
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| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Ryan (HOU) | 0-0 | 0.00 | 1.31 | 5.1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| S. Arrighetti (LAD) | 4-8 | 5.65 | 1.58 | 86.0 | 91 | 96 | 45 | 11 |
Team Previews
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have been strong offensively, ranking 2nd in hits (927) and 2nd in batting average (.262). They have scored 483 runs this season, placing them tied for 10th in the league. Their pitching staff has a collective ERA of 3.98, ranking 15th, which has been a point of concern lately. Defensively, they have committed 43 errors, ranking 29th which shows some vulnerabilities in the field.
Houston Astros
The Astros have been formidable this season, ranking 4th in hits (908) and 5th in batting average (.254). They are 2nd in runs scored (516), showcasing their offensive firepower. Their pitching staff has a collective ERA of 3.77, ranking 10th in the league. They have committed 51 errors, ranking them tied for 19th in fielding.
Team Injuries
| Player | Position | Updated | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | RP | Sat, Jul 27 | Ribs | Expected to be out until at least Jul 28 |
| Brusdar Graterol | RP | Sat, Jul 27 | Shoulder | Expected to be out until at least Aug 5 |
Houston Astros
| Player | Position | Updated | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Sousa | RP | Sat, Jul 27 | Shoulder | Out for the season |
Recent Games
Los Angeles Dodgers
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | W-L | WIN | LOSS | SAVE | ATT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | vs Boston | W4-1 | 57-41 | Yarbrough 4-2 | Bernardino 3-3 | Hudson 5 | 51562 |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs Boston | W7-6 F/11 | 58-41 | Treinen 3-2 | Weissert 2-2 | NaN | 48129 |
| Sun, Jul 21 | vs Boston | W9-6 | 59-41 | Paxton 8-2 | Crawford 6-8 | Hudson 6 | 50824 |
| Mon, Jul 22 | vs San Francisco | W3-2 | 60-41 | Treinen 4-2 | Miller 3-3 | Hudson 7 | 49576 |
| Tue, Jul 23 | vs San Francisco | W5-2 | 61-41 | Knack 2-2 | Hicks 4-7 | Phillips 15 | 52627 |
Houston Astros
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | W-L | WIN | LOSS | SAVE | ATT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | @ Seattle | W3-0 | 51-46 | Brown 8-6 | Castillo 8-10 | Hader 19 | 40948 |
| Sat, Jul 20 | @ Seattle | W4-2 | 52-46 | Scott 7-3 | Stanek 6-3 | Hader 20 | 38017 |
| Sun, Jul 21 | @ Seattle | L6-4 | 52-47 | Woo 4-1 | Blanco 9-5 | Munoz 16 | 35038 |
| Mon, Jul 22 | @ Oakland | L4-0 | 52-48 | Harris 2-3 | Arrighetti 4-8 | NaN | 4517 |
| Tue, Jul 23 | @ Oakland | L8-2 | 52-49 | Bido 2-1 | Bloss 0-1 | NaN | 5896 |
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Prediction
Considering Alex Bregman's form and the weaknesses in Spencer Arrighetti's pitching, betting on Bregman to have a strong game could be profitable. Specifically, the prop bet for Bregman to score over 0.5 runs at -140 seems like a solid pick given his recent performances and consistency. Additionally, Bregman has a good chance to achieve over 1.5 total bases at +120, especially against a struggling Arrighetti.
Pick: Alex Bregman Over 0.5 Runs Scored (-140)
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