MLB Player Props Betting Analysis: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets - 7/25

- Lm Tipster
- Jul 25, 2024, 9:42:54 AM
MLB Player Props Betting Analysis: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets - 7/25
Photo Credit: © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Atlanta Braves, currently holding a 54-46 record, are set to face the New York Mets, who stand at 53-48, in a pivotal NL East showdown at Citi Field on Thursday, July 25th at 7:10 PM EDT. The Braves, struggling with a four-game losing streak, will be looking to turn their fortunes around against a Mets team that has shown resilience, especially at home where they hold a balanced 26-26 record. Atlanta's road performance has been slightly better with a 27-22 record.
In their last 10 games, the Mets have been in better form with a 7-3 record, boasting a .265 batting average and a solid 3.68 ERA, outscoring their opponents by 18 runs. Conversely, the Braves have struggled, going 3-7 with a .221 batting average and a 4.60 ERA, being outscored by 14 runs.
Historically, these teams have been evenly matched this season, with the series tied 3-3. Both teams have key players leading their offensive charge. For the Mets, Francisco Lindor has been a standout with a .259 batting average, 27 doubles, 21 home runs, and 60 RBIs. For the Braves, Marcell Ozuna has emerged as a power hitter with 28 home runs and 80 RBIs, while Travis d'Arnaud has been consistent with 10 hits in his last 27 at-bats.
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Player Prop Odds
- Marcell Ozuna Doubles: Over 0.5 (+400)
- Marcell Ozuna Hits: Over 1.5 (+280)
- Marcell Ozuna Home Runs: Over 0.5 (+330)
- Marcell Ozuna RBIs: Over 0.5 (+140)
- Marcell Ozuna Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (-135)
- Marcell Ozuna Singles: Over 0.5 (+100)
- Marcell Ozuna Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+115)
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Player Analysis
Marcell Ozuna has been a bright spot in the Braves' lineup, boasting an impressive .306 batting average with 28 home runs and 80 RBIs. His slugging percentage has been a force to reckon with, and he's been particularly effective against right-handed pitchers, making him a key player to watch in this matchup against Mets' starter Luis Severino.
Ozuna's recent form has been stellar, having recorded multiple hits in several of his recent games and consistently driving in runs. His ability to perform in clutch situations makes him a valuable asset for the Braves, and with the team looking to break their losing streak, Ozuna's performance will be crucial.
Opposing Analysis
The Mets will counter with Luis Severino, who has a 7-3 record with a 3.58 ERA and 88 strikeouts over 115.2 innings. Severino has been effective but has shown vulnerability to power hitters, having given up 12 home runs this season. The Braves' power hitters, including Ozuna, will look to exploit this aspect of Severino's game.
The Mets' bullpen has been solid, but they have struggled with consistency at times. If Severino gets into trouble early, the Mets' relievers will need to step up to contain the Braves' potent lineup.
Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 13-3 | 2.70 | 0.95 | 110.0 | 81 | 140 | 24 | 7 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 7-3 | 3.58 | 1.18 | 115.2 | 96 | 88 | 40 | 12 |
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Team Previews
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have a collective batting average of .241, ranking them 10th in the NL. They have accumulated 873 hits and 493 runs, showcasing their ability to produce offense. However, their pitching has been a mixed bag with a team ERA of 4.18, ranking 20th in the league. Their defense has committed 70 errors, ranking them 3rd in the league for most errors.
New York Mets
The Mets have been solid both offensively and defensively. They have a batting average of .241, tied for 17th in the league, with 811 hits and 422 runs. Their pitching staff has been a strength with a team ERA of 3.52, ranking 3rd in the league. Defensively, they have committed 42 errors, tied for 29th in the league.
Team Injuries
Atlanta Braves
| Player | Position | Updated | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | CF | Wed, Jul 24 | Hamstring | Expected to be out until at least Aug 14 |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | Wed, Jul 24 | Finger | Probable for Jul 25 |
New York Mets
| Player | Position | Updated | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Bader | CF | Thu, Jul 25 | Ankle | Expected to be out until at least Jul 26 |
Recent Games
Atlanta Braves
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | W-L | WIN | LOSS | SAVE | ATT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jul 24 | vs Cincinnati | L9-4 | 54-46 | Moll 2-1 | Winans 0-2 | NaN | 34407 |
| Mon, Jul 22 | vs Cincinnati | L4-1 | 54-45 | Greene 7-4 | Lopez 7-4 | NaN | 38779 |
| Sun, Jul 21 | vs St. Louis | L6-2 | 54-44 | Mikolas 8-8 | Schwellenbach 3-5 | NaN | 36348 |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs St. Louis | L9-5 | 54-43 | Gray 10-6 | Elder 1-4 | Leahy 1 | 42168 |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs St. Louis | W3-2 F/10 | 54-42 | Johnson 3-1 | Roycroft 1-2 | NaN | 37042 |
New York Mets
| DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT | W-L | WIN | LOSS | SAVE | ATT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jul 24 | @ Miami | W12-3 | 53-48 | Ottavino 2-2 | Cole 3-2 | NaN | 48760 |
| Tue, Jul 23 | @ Miami | W3-2 | 52-48 | Quintana 5-6 | Tonkin 3-4 | Diekman 4 | 47453 |
| Mon, Jul 22 | @ Miami | W6-4 | 51-48 | Peterson 5-0 | Chirinos 0-2 | Diaz 12 | 13068 |
| Sun, Jul 21 | @ Miami | L4-2 | 50-48 | Cronin 2-2 | Scott 0-3 | Scott 16 | 19418 |
| Sat, Jul 20 | @ Miami | W1-0 | 50-47 | Severino 7-3 | Munoz 1-5 | Diaz 11 | 21902 |
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Prediction
Considering Marcell Ozuna's recent form and his matchup against Luis Severino, the prop bet for Ozuna hitting Over 0.5 Home Runs at +330 provides excellent value. Severino has been susceptible to power hitters, and Ozuna's slugging ability puts him in a prime position to go deep in this game.
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