MLB Player Props Bet Advice: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets 7/27

- A Plus Picks
- Jul 27, 2024, 12:26:30 PM
MLB Player Props Bet Advice: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets 7/27
Game Summary
The Atlanta Braves (54-48) will be clashing with the New York Mets (55-48) at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Saturday, July 27th, 2024. The game is set to start at 4:10 p.m. EDT. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they are jostling for position in the NL East standings. The Mets currently sit second, just a game ahead of the Braves, who are third.
New York comes into this game with a home record of 28-26 and an overall record of 55-48. They have been particularly dominant in games where they have managed to score five or more runs, boasting a 38-15 record in such scenarios. Atlanta, on the other hand, has a similar overall record of 54-48 but has struggled on the road with a 24-27 record. The Braves have a stellar 40-8 record in games where they out-hit their opponents.
In the current season series, the Mets have a 5-3 advantage over the Braves. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance, but consistency has been a challenge. The Mets have been on a roll in their last 10 games with a 7-3 record, a .243 batting average, and a 3.64 ERA. Conversely, the Braves have struggled, going 3-7 with a .223 batting average and a 4.54 ERA over the same span.
Some standout performers to watch include Francisco Lindor for the Mets, who leads the team with 22 home runs and a .480 slugging percentage, and Marcell Ozuna for the Braves, who has a .308 batting average, 20 doubles, 29 home runs, and 81 RBIs.
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Player Prop Odds
Pitcher Tylor Megill to record a win: Yes +215, No -325
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Player Analysis
Tylor Megill has had a roller-coaster season so far. Sporting a 2-4 record with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP across 39 innings, Megill has shown flashes of potential mixed with bouts of inconsistency. He has struck out 49 batters, demonstrating his ability to generate swings and misses. However, his high walk rate (19 walks in 39 innings) has often led to trouble.
Megill's last outing against the Braves was a mixed bag, where he allowed 4 earned runs over 5 innings but managed to strike out 6 batters. The Braves' lineup is potent, and Megill will need to focus on limiting baserunners to navigate through it successfully.
Opposing Analysis
The Atlanta Braves' lineup is loaded with firepower, led by Marcell Ozuna, who has been a consistent offensive force. The team ranks 5th in runs scored (504) and 9th in hits (884), indicating their ability to generate offense. However, their recent form has been shaky, with a .223 batting average over the last 10 games.
The Braves will be looking to bounce back from their recent struggles and put pressure on Megill early. Key hitters like Ozuna and Travis d'Arnaud, who is 11-for-31 with two home runs in the last 10 games, will be crucial in this effort.
Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Schwellenbach | 3-5 | 4.62 | 1.16 | 50.2 | 49 | 49 | 10 | 7 |
| T. Megill | 2-4 | 5.08 | 1.44 | 39.0 | 37 | 49 | 19 | 3 |
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Team Previews
Atlanta Braves
The Braves have had a solid season offensively, ranking 5th in runs scored (504) and 9th in hits (884). Led by Marcell Ozuna, who is batting .308 with 29 home runs and 81 RBIs, the Braves are a formidable offensive unit. However, their recent form has been concerning, with a .223 team batting average over the last 10 games.
Pitching has been a mixed bag for the Braves. Spencer Schwellenbach, the probable starter for this game, has a 3-5 record with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. The bullpen has been decent, ranking 9th in saves (28), but the team's overall ERA of 4.15 is only good for 21st in the league. Injuries have also played a part in their recent struggles, with key players like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Max Fried on the IL.
New York Mets
The Mets have been solid both offensively and defensively. They rank 3rd in team ERA (3.52) and have managed to stay competitive despite some key injuries. Francisco Lindor leads the team with 22 home runs, and Jose Iglesias has been hot recently, going 17-for-37 with two home runs in the last 10 games.
Tylor Megill will be looking to improve on his 5.08 ERA and 2-4 record. The bullpen has been reliable, with 26 saves, ranking tied for 14th in the league. The Mets' defense has also been solid, committing only 45 errors, which is one of the best in the league.
Team Injuries
Atlanta Braves
| Player | Position | Updated | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | OF | Fri, Jul 26 | Hamstring | 60-Day IL |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | Fri, Jul 26 | Wrist | 10-Day IL |
New York Mets
| Player | Position | Updated | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | SP | Fri, Jul 26 | Calf | Expected to be out until at least Aug 2 |
| Harrison Bader | CF | Fri, Jul 26 | Ankle | Probable for Jul 27 |
Recent Games
Atlanta Braves
| Date | Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | vs St. Louis | Postponed | Postponed |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs St. Louis | W 3-2 | W |
| Sun, Jul 21 | vs St. Louis | L 6-2 | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | vs Cincinnati | L 4-1 | L |
| Wed, Jul 24 | vs Cincinnati | L 9-4 | L |
New York Mets
| Date | Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | @ Miami | L 6-4 | L |
| Sat, Jul 20 | @ Miami | W 1-0 | W |
| Sun, Jul 21 | @ Miami | L 4-2 | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | @ Miami | W 6-4 | W |
| Tue, Jul 23 | @ New York | W 3-2 | W |
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Prediction
Given the recent form of both teams and the pitching matchup, betting on Tylor Megill to record a win at +215 offers substantial value. Despite his struggles, the Mets have been in better form and have a potent lineup that can provide run support. The Braves' recent struggles also play into this prediction.
Pick: Tylor Megill to record a win (+215)
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