MLB Player Props Best Bets: Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles (7/30)

MLB Player Props Best Bets: Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles (7/30)

Photo Credit: © Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Toronto Blue Jays (50-57) are set to face the Baltimore Orioles (63-44) on July 30, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. This matchup comes after a competitive series between these two teams, with the season series currently tied at 4-4. The Blue Jays are looking to capitalize on their recent momentum, having secured a win against the Orioles the previous night, a game in which Vladimir Guerrero Jr. showcased his skills with a remarkable four-hit performance.

The Orioles have experienced a mixed bag of results recently, going 4-6 in their last ten games, with a .260 batting average and a 5.11 ERA. Conversely, the Blue Jays are also 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting at a .279 average but struggling with a 5.66 ERA. The Orioles currently rank third in the American League with a collective batting average of .254, while the Blue Jays rank fourth with a .252 average.

This matchup features a notable pitching duel between Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays and Corbin Burnes of the Orioles. Burnes has been particularly effective this season, boasting a 10-4 record with a stellar 2.45 ERA, while Bassitt comes in with an 8-9 record and a 3.78 ERA. With the Orioles holding a strong home record of 32-25, they look to assert their dominance in this crucial AL East matchup.

Player Prop Odds

Corbin Burnes:
Win Record: Yes +105.0
Win Record: No -140.0

Player Analysis

Corbin Burnes has been a standout performer for the Orioles this season. His 10-4 record and 2.45 ERA demonstrate his ability to keep opposing hitters at bay. Over 132 innings pitched, he has accumulated 121 strikeouts, showcasing his strikeout prowess with a WHIP of just 1.04. Burnes excels at limiting hard contact, allowing only 107 hits and 15 home runs this season.

In his last few starts, Burnes has continued to impress, maintaining his effectiveness against both left-handed and right-handed hitters. His ability to generate swings and misses, combined with his high strikeout rate, makes him a formidable challenge for the Blue Jays' lineup.

Opposing Analysis

The Blue Jays' offense, while potent, has shown vulnerability against high-caliber pitching. Their lineup features standout players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ernie Clement, but they have struggled at times against elite pitchers. With Burnes on the mound, the Blue Jays will need to adapt their approach and find ways to make contact and create scoring opportunities.

The Blue Jays have a collective batting average of .252, with Guerrero leading the team with a .311 average and 21 home runs. However, they are likely to face challenges in this game, particularly given Burnes’ ability to neutralize power hitters.

Pitching Probables

Player	W-L	ERA	WHIP	IP	H	K	BB	HR
Chris Bassitt (TOR)	8-9	3.78	1.41	119.0	121	112	47	11
Corbin Burnes (BAL)	10-4	2.45	1.04	132.0	107	121	30	15

Team Previews

The Baltimore Orioles are currently leading the AL East, showcasing a strong overall performance this season. Their batting average of .254 ranks them third in the American League, while their pitching staff has a collective ERA of 4.51. Despite a few injuries in their bullpen, the Orioles have managed to maintain their competitiveness, largely due to their strong home record.

The Toronto Blue Jays, on the other hand, find themselves in fifth place in the AL East with a record of 50-57. They have demonstrated offensive firepower, ranking fourth in the AL with 522 runs scored. However, their pitching has been inconsistent, with a team ERA of 3.79. Injuries to key players like Jordan Romano and Bo Bichette have impacted their performance, but they have shown resilience in their recent games.

Team Injuries

Baltimore Orioles

Player	Position	Injury Status
Jorge Mateo	SS	10-Day IL (elbow)
Felix Bautista	RP	60-Day IL (elbow)

Toronto Blue Jays

Player	Position	Injury Status
Jordan Romano	RP	60-Day IL (elbow)
Bo Bichette	SS	10-Day IL (calf)

Recent Games

Baltimore Orioles

Opponent	Score	W/L
vs Toronto	W 11-5	W
vs Toronto	L 8-4	L
vs San Diego	W 8-6	W
vs San Diego	L 9-4	L
vs San Diego	L 6-4	L

Toronto Blue Jays

Opponent	Score	W/L
vs Texas	W 7-3	W
vs Texas	W 6-3	W
vs Tampa Bay	L 4-2	L
vs Tampa Bay	L 13-0	L
vs Tampa Bay	W 5-4	W

Prediction

Considering the current form of both pitchers and the overall team dynamics, the value lies in betting on Corbin Burnes to record a win against the Blue Jays. His ability to limit runs and strikeouts positions him well to capitalize on the Blue Jays' struggles against elite pitching. Moreover, with the Orioles fighting for AL East supremacy and Burnes having home-field advantage, this prop holds a strong appeal.

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