MLB Player Props Best Bets: Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox

A Plus Picks
Jul 30, 2024, 4:36:30 AM

Photo Credit: © Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Seattle Mariners travel to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox in a pivotal matchup on July 30, 2024. This game marks the second contest of a three-game series, with the Red Sox currently leading the series 1-0 after their 14-7 victory on July 29. Both teams have been competitive this season; the Mariners hold a record of 56-52, placing them second in the AL West, while the Red Sox sit at 56-49, ranking third in the AL East.

In recent games, the Mariners have struggled slightly, going 4-6 in their last ten outings, with a batting average of just .211. Their pitching staff has been solid, posting a 3.34 ERA. Conversely, the Red Sox have struggled even more, winning just 3 of their last 10 games, with a concerning 6.80 team ERA during that stretch. However, Boston is still one of the top teams in the league when they out-hit their opponents, boasting a 43-6 record in such situations.

This matchup is also intriguing due to the performance of the starting pitchers. Luis Castillo (Mariners) comes in with an 8-10 record and a 3.38 ERA, while James Paxton (Red Sox) boasts an 8-2 record but carries a higher ERA of 4.43. Historically, the teams have faced each other five times this season, with the Red Sox holding a slight edge at 3-2 in the series. The Mariners will look to even the score and gain momentum as they head toward the final stretch of the season.

Player Prop Odds

Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+255)
Batter Hits: Over 1.5 (+210)
Batter Home Runs: Over 0.5 (+360)
Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+105)
Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (-135)
Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+100)
Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (-120)

Player Analysis

Rafael Devers has been a key contributor for the Boston Red Sox this season, boasting a batting average of .297 with 23 home runs and 64 RBIs. He is currently one of the team's most productive hitters and has shown the ability to drive in runs and score, making him a prime candidate for player prop bets. In the last ten games, Devers has been hitting well, and his ability to find gaps and get on base has been critical for the Red Sox's offense.

In the context of this matchup against the Mariners, Devers' power and consistency at the plate could lead to multiple opportunities for him to surpass the player prop odds. Given that Castillo is a right-handed pitcher and Devers performs well against righties, this further enhances the potential for him to deliver in key situations.

Opposing Analysis

Facing Devers is Luis Castillo, a pitcher with a solid ERA of 3.38. Castillo has a strikeout rate of 126 over 130.1 innings pitched, but he has also allowed 15 home runs this season. This could present an opportunity for Devers to capitalize, especially considering his recent form and Castillo's susceptibility to giving up home runs. Additionally, the Mariners' bullpen has been inconsistent, which could lead to more scoring chances for Devers late in the game.

Pitching Probables

Player	W-L	ERA	Strikeouts
Luis Castillo (SEA)	8-10	3.38	126
James Paxton (BOS)	8-2	4.43	64

Team Previews

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have shown resilience throughout the season with a strong record, particularly at home. Their offense has been bolstered by a robust power display, ranking 6th in the AL with 123 home runs. However, they have struggled to maintain consistent production on the road, which has been evident in their recent games. Their pitching staff has performed well, with a collective ERA of 3.91, placing them 13th in the league, but they will need to improve their batting average of .258 to compete with teams like the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have faced challenges this season, particularly with injuries impacting their roster. Currently, they hold a batting average of .218, which ranks them near the bottom of the league. However, their pitching has stood out, with an impressive ERA of 3.35, the best in the league. They will need to leverage their pitching strength and get their hitters, like Devers, in rhythm to improve their chances in this matchup.

Team Injuries

Player	Position	Injury Status
J.P. Crawford	SS	10-Day IL (hand)
Julio Rodriguez	CF	10-Day IL (ankle)
Randy Arozarena	LF	Probable for Jul 30
Triston Casas	1B	60-Day IL (rib)
Vaughn Grissom	2B	10-Day IL (hamstring)

Recent Games

Team	Opponent	Score	W/L
Seattle Mariners	@ Boston	L 7-14	Loss
Boston Red Sox	vs Seattle	W 14-7	Win
Seattle Mariners	@ Chicago	W 6-3	Win
Boston Red Sox	vs New York	L 8-2	Loss
Seattle Mariners	@ Los Angeles	L 1-5	Loss

Prediction

Given Rafael Devers' current form and matchup against Castillo, I predict that he will exceed the player prop odds for total bases at 1.5. With Castillo's tendency to allow hits and Devers' ability to capitalize on favorable matchups, this bet seems promising.

Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)

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