Kingpin analysis
MLB Player Props Best Bets: Phillies vs Pirates 7/21

MLB Player Props Best Bets: Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Photo Credit: © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
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Game Summary
The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Philadelphia Phillies at PNC Park on Sunday at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The Pirates, who are on a three-game home winning streak, have been performing well with a 50-48 record overall and a 24-24 record at home. Pittsburgh has hit 101 total home runs, ranking ninth in the NL. The Pirates have a strong batting lineup led by Andrew McCutchen and Oneil Cruz, who have been instrumental in recent games.
The Philadelphia Phillies, sitting first in the NL East with a 62-36 record, have also shown solid performance on the road with a 25-20 record. Phillies hitters have a collective .331 on-base percentage, the third-ranked percentage in the NL. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner have been leading the charge for the Phillies, with Harper boasting a .299 batting average and Turner showing excellent form in the last 10 games.
In the season series between these two teams, the Pirates have a 4-2 lead. Sunday's game will be crucial for both teams as they aim to strengthen their standings in their respective divisions.
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Odds and Betting Lines
- Moneyline: Phillies -143, Pirates +120
- Over/Under: 9 runs
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Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips (PHI) | 1-0 | 4.50 | 12 |
| Marco Gonzales (PIT) | 1-0 | 2.45 | 15 |
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Team Previews
Philadelphia Phillies
Hitting: The Phillies have shown a balanced offensive performance, led by Bryce Harper with a .299 batting average, 21 doubles, and 22 home runs. Alec Bohm has chipped in with 70 RBIs, while Trea Turner has been on fire recently with five home runs and 12 RBIs over the last 10 games.
Relief Pitching: Philadelphia's bullpen has been solid, securing 25 saves, ranking them tied-15th in MLB. However, they have been hit with injuries, notably Zack Wheeler (day-to-day) and Michael Rucker (expected to be out until at least July 21).
Fielding: The Phillies have committed 48 errors, which places them mid-tier in terms of fielding efficiency. This is an area they will need to tighten up to maintain their strong standings.
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Phillips, with a 4.50 ERA and 12 strikeouts, will be looking to improve his performance. The Phillies' starting rotation has been hampered by injuries, including Spencer Turnbull and Taijuan Walker.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Hitting: The Pirates' offense has been a standout, with 101 home runs ranking them ninth in the NL. Andrew McCutchen and Oneil Cruz have been key contributors. In their last 10 games, the Pirates have hit for a .260 average and outscored opponents by 23 runs.
Relief Pitching: Pittsburgh's bullpen has performed admirably, securing 26 saves, tied for 10th in MLB. Injuries to key relievers like Bailey Falter and Dauri Moreta have tested their depth.
Fielding: The Pirates have committed 57 errors, which ranks them tied-10th in the league. Their fielding has been relatively strong, contributing to their success.
Starting Pitchers: Marco Gonzales, with a 2.45 ERA and 15 strikeouts, will be crucial in this matchup. The Pirates have shown good depth in their starting rotation despite injuries to players like Johan Oviedo.
Team Injuries
Philadelphia Phillies
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | SP | Back | Day-to-day |
| Michael Rucker | RP | Hand | Expected to be out until at least Jul 21 |
| Spencer Turnbull | SP | Back | 15-Day IL |
| Taijuan Walker | SP | Index Finger | 15-Day IL |
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | RP | Arm | 15-Day IL |
| Daulton Jefferies | RP | Elbow | 15-Day IL |
| Jared Jones | SP | Lat | 15-Day IL |
| Hunter Stratton | RP | Shoulder | 15-Day IL |
| Ryan Borucki | RP | Tricep | 60-Day IL |
| Dauri Moreta | RP | Elbow | 60-Day IL |
Recent Games
Philadelphia Phillies
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Pittsburgh | L 8-7 | Loss |
| @ Pittsburgh | L 4-1 | Loss |
| @ Minnesota | Upcoming | Upcoming |
| @ Minnesota | Upcoming | Upcoming |
| @ Minnesota | Upcoming | Upcoming |
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia | W 8-7 | Win |
| vs Philadelphia | W 4-1 | Win |
| vs St. Louis | Upcoming | Upcoming |
| vs St. Louis | Upcoming | Upcoming |
| vs St. Louis | Upcoming | Upcoming |
Team Rankings
| Category | Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 22nd | 3rd |
| Starting Pitching | 12th | 3rd |
| Relief Pitching | 15th | 10th |
| Fielding | 20th | 10th |
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Prediction
Pick: Ke'Bryan Hayes to score over 0.5 runs (-115)
Ke'Bryan Hayes has been a consistent performer for the Pirates and has the potential to score runs, especially against a Phillies team struggling with injuries in their pitching department. With the Pirates on a winning streak and Hayes' recent form, the odds of him scoring over 0.5 runs look promising.
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