MLB Player Props Best Bets: Cubs vs Reds 7/29

MLB Player Props Best Bets: Cubs vs Reds 7/29

Photo Credit: © Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago Cubs to kick off a three-game series at Great American Ball Park on Monday, July 29, 2024, at 7:10 PM EDT. This matchup features both teams vying for positioning in the NL Central, with the Reds currently sitting in fifth place with a 50-55 record and the Cubs just ahead in fourth place at 51-56.

Recent performances indicate that both teams have had their struggles. The Reds have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games, batting a meager .202 and posting a 3.98 ERA. Conversely, the Cubs have managed to go 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a slightly better batting average of .219 and a solid ERA of 3.00. Historically, the Reds have had the upper hand in the season series, leading 5-2.

One key factor to note is the Reds' ability to score runs in bunches, boasting a 35-8 record when scoring at least five runs. The Cubs, on the other hand, have a strong 20-6 record when they hit at least two home runs in a game. This clash of styles will make for an intriguing matchup as both teams look to gain momentum.

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Player Prop Odds

Will Benson Props:

• Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+480), Under 0.5 (-954)
• Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-108), Under 0.5 (-127)
• Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+213), Under 0.5 (-314)
• Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+139), Under 0.5 (-194)
• Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+208), Under 0.5 (-304)
• Batter Stolen Bases: Over 0.5 (+425), Under 0.5 (-900)
• Batter Total Bases: Over 0.5 (-108), Under 0.5 (-127)

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Player Analysis: Will Benson

Will Benson of the Cincinnati Reds has been a solid contributor to the team's offense this season. With a batting average of .237, Benson has accumulated 24 doubles, 15 home runs, and 64 RBIs. Over his last 10 games, Benson has shown a hot bat, going 13-for-39 with two doubles, a triple, and three home runs, making him a crucial player in the Reds' lineup.

Benson's recent form suggests he is seeing the ball well, making him a prime candidate to exceed his player prop odds, particularly in the categories of hits and total bases. His ability to hit for power and average makes the over 0.5 hits (-108) and over 0.5 total bases (-108) enticing bets.

Opposing Analysis: Chicago Cubs Pitching

The Cubs will send Jameson Taillon to the mound. Taillon has been the Cubs' most reliable starter this season, boasting a 7-5 record with a stellar 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Over 100.1 innings pitched, Taillon has allowed 94 hits, struck out 78 batters, and walked just 21.

Despite Taillon's impressive numbers, the Cubs' bullpen has been less consistent, which could provide opportunities for Benson to capitalize later in the game. The Cubs' relievers have struggled with maintaining leads and preventing runs, making Benson's props more attractive.

Pitching Probables

Player	W-L	ERA	Strikeouts
Jameson Taillon (CHC)	7-5	2.96	78
Carson Spiers (CIN)	3-2	3.83	41

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Team Previews

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have struggled offensively this season, ranking 28th in hits (785) and batting average (.228). However, they have shown power, ranking 15th in runs scored (460). Their pitching staff has been a bright spot, with a team ERA of 3.83, ranking 11th in the league. The bullpen, though, has been shaky, ranking 24th in saves (22).

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have been slightly better offensively, ranking 22nd in hits (830) and 22nd in runs scored (440). Their team batting average is .233, ranking 24th. The Reds' pitching staff has been solid, with a team ERA of 3.72, ranking 6th in the league. The bullpen has been more reliable, ranking 22nd in saves (23).

Team Injuries

Player	Position	Injury Status
Brent Suter	RP	15-Day IL (teres major)
Carson Spiers	SP	15-Day IL (shoulder)
Nick Martini	OF	60-Day IL (thumb)
Graham Ashcraft	SP	15-Day IL (elbow)
Luke Maile	C	10-Day IL (back)

Cubs Injuries

Player	Position	Injury Status
Tomas Nido	C	10-Day IL (knee)
Ben Brown	RP	60-Day IL (neck)
Luke Little	SP	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Hayden Wesneski	SP	15-Day IL (forearm)
Jordan Wicks	SP	60-Day IL (oblique)

Recent Games

Reds

Opponent	Score	W/L
@ Washington	L 8-5	L
@ Washington	L 5-4	L
@ Washington	L 5-2	L
@ Atlanta	W 4-1	W
@ Atlanta	W 9-4	W

Cubs

Opponent	Score	W/L
@ Kansas City	L 6-0	L
@ Kansas City	W 9-4	W
@ Kansas City	W 7-3	W
vs Milwaukee	L 3-2	L
vs Milwaukee	L 1-0	L

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Prediction

Based on the analysis, Will Benson is in excellent form, and the Cubs bullpen has shown vulnerability. This combination makes the over 0.5 hits (-108) and over 0.5 total bases (-108) attractive bets. Given Benson's recent performance and the likelihood of opportunities against the Cubs' relievers, these props offer good value.

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