MLB Player Props Analysis Today: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Mr Wager
- Jul 28, 2024, 4:43:32 AM
MLB Player Props Analysis Today: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks
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Game Summary
The Pittsburgh Pirates (52-52, third in the NL Central) will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks (55-50, third in the NL West) at Chase Field in Phoenix on Sunday, July 28, 2024, at 4:10 p.m. EDT. The Diamondbacks come into this game with a 28-24 home record, fresh off a 9-5 win over the Pirates, where Jake McCarthy had an exceptional game with five hits. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 26-26 on the road and are looking to bounce back after two consecutive losses to Arizona.
Historically, both teams have had their ups and downs, but this season's matchups have been particularly close, with Arizona winning the first two games of their series. The Diamondbacks have one of the best team on-base percentages in MLB at .326, while the Pirates excel when they out-hit their opponents, boasting a 38-4 record in such games.
Leading the charge for the Diamondbacks is Ketel Marte, who has 45 extra-base hits this season, including 23 home runs. Corbin Carroll has also been impressive, hitting four home runs and driving in 11 runs over the last 10 games. The Pirates, meanwhile, will be looking to their key players to turn things around and avoid a series sweep.
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Player Prop Odds
For this matchup, let's focus on Rowdy Tellez and his player props:
- Batter Doubles 0.5: Over +390, Under -650
- Batter Hits 0.5: Over -185, Under +135
- Batter RBIs 0.5: Over +175, Under -245
- Batter Runs Scored 0.5: Over +150, Under -210
- Batter Singles 0.5: Over +105, Under -140
- Batter Total Bases 0.5: Over -185, Under +135
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Player Analysis
Rowdy Tellez has been a key player for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season. With a batting average of .252, 16 home runs, and 52 RBIs, Tellez is a consistent threat at the plate. His ability to hit for power and drive in runs makes him a crucial part of the Pirates' lineup. In his last 10 games, Tellez has shown flashes of power, and the Pirates will need him to continue this trend to have a fighting chance against the Diamondbacks.
Opposing Analysis
Yilber Diaz, the starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, has had a rough season so far with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 15 innings pitched. Diaz has struggled with control, walking four batters and allowing two home runs. The Pirates' lineup, featuring Tellez, will look to exploit Diaz's weaknesses and get on the board early.
Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 10-5 | 3.34 | 1.24 | 121.1 | 119 | 108 | 32 | 13 |
| Yilber Diaz (ARI) | 1-1 | 5.40 | 1.40 | 15.0 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
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Team Previews
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates have had a decent season so far, sitting at a .500 record. Their hitting has been a strong point, ranking 8th in hits with 888 and 3rd in runs with 513. The team batting average stands at .253, which is also 8th in the league. However, their pitching has been less impressive, with a team ERA of 4.49 (26th) and WHIP of 1.38. Defensively, they have committed 42 errors, which ranks 30th.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks are slightly ahead of the Pirates in the standings, thanks to a solid overall performance. They have a team ERA of 3.78, ranking 11th, and their WHIP is at 1.24. Offensively, they are lower in the rankings with 807 hits (26th) and 425 runs (23rd). Their batting average is .232, placing them 25th. Defensively, they have committed 50 errors, ranking them 21st in the league.
Team Injuries
| Player | Position | Updated | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | SP | 15-Day IL | Arm | Out |
| Daulton Jefferies | SP | 15-Day IL | Elbow | Out |
| Jared Jones | SP | 15-Day IL | Lat | Out |
| Blake Walston | SP | 15-Day IL | Elbow | Out |
| Merrill Kelly | SP | 60-Day IL | Shoulder | Out |
| Kyle Nelson | RP | 60-Day IL | Shoulder | Out |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | SP | 60-Day IL | Shoulder | Out |
| Drey Jameson | SP | 60-Day IL | Elbow | Out |
Recent Games
Pittsburgh Pirates
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia | 8-7 | W |
| vs Philadelphia | 4-1 | W |
| vs Philadelphia | 0-6 | L |
| vs St. Louis | 2-1 | W |
| vs St. Louis | 1-2 | L |
| vs St. Louis | 5-0 | W |
| @ Arizona | 3-4 | L |
| @ Arizona | 5-9 | L |
Arizona Diamondbacks
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Chicago | 5-2 | W |
| @ Chicago | 3-0 | W |
| @ Chicago | 1-2 F/10 | L |
| @ Kansas City | 4-10 | L |
| @ Kansas City | 6-2 | W |
| @ Kansas City | 8-6 | W |
| vs Pittsburgh | 4-3 | W |
| vs Pittsburgh | 9-5 | W |
Prediction
Pick: Over 0.5 Hits for Rowdy Tellez (-185)
Given Tellez's recent performance and Yilber Diaz's struggles on the mound, there is a strong likelihood that Tellez will get at least one hit in this game. Diaz's high ERA and WHIP suggest that he is prone to giving up hits, and Tellez's batting prowess makes the Over 0.5 Hits prop a favorable bet.
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