MLB Player Props Analysis: Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers
- Mr Wager
- Jul 27, 2024, 9:13:37 AM
MLB Player Props Analysis: Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers
Photo Credit: © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Miami Marlins (38-66, fifth in the NL East) will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers (59-44, first in the NL Central) in the second game of their three-game series on Saturday, July 27, 2024, at American Family Field in Milwaukee. The game is set to start at 7:10 p.m. EDT. The Marlins currently lead the series 1-0 after a convincing 6-2 win in the first game, adding to their 3-1 lead in the season series against the Brewers.
The Brewers have been formidable at home this season with a 29-18 record. They have thrived when their bats are active, boasting a 44-16 record in games where they record eight or more hits. Conversely, the Marlins have struggled on the road with a 16-32 record but have shown they can capitalize when they out-hit their opponents, holding a 28-12 record in such games.
Both teams have shown mixed form in their last 10 games. The Brewers are 5-5 with a .223 batting average and a 3.13 ERA, while the Marlins are 6-4 with a .279 batting average and a 3.70 ERA. As the Marlins look to continue their recent upturn in form, the Brewers will aim to leverage their home advantage to even the series.
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Player Prop Odds
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Jackson Chourio Player Prop Odds:
- Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+450)
- Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-175)
- Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+185), Under 0.5 (-260)
- Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+140), Under 0.5 (-195)
- Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (-117)
- Batter Stolen Bases: Over 0.5 (+400), Under 0.5 (-700)
- Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+160), Under 1.5 (-215)
Player Analysis
Jackson Chourio has been a standout for the Brewers, especially over the last 10 games, where he has gone 13-for-42 with four doubles and a home run. His recent form has been instrumental in the Brewers' performance and has showcased his ability to get on base and drive in runs. Chourio's versatility at the plate makes him a valuable asset, and his current hot streak is a positive indicator for his performance in the upcoming game.
Opposing Analysis
Max Meyer, the Marlins' probable starter, has been impressive in his limited appearances this season. Meyer boasts a 2-0 record with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP over 17 innings pitched. He has struck out 14 batters while allowing just 11 hits and three walks. Meyer's ability to keep hitters off balance and limit base runners will be crucial against a Brewers lineup that has struggled at times this season.
Pitching Probables
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| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 2-0 | 2.12 | 14 |
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 2-7 | 5.00 | 102 |
Team Previews
Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins have had a challenging season, reflected in their 38-66 record. Despite their struggles, the Marlins have shown flashes of potential, particularly with their hitting. They rank 7th in hits (890) and tied-8th in runs (489), with a team batting average of .254 (6th in the league). The Marlins' pitching staff has also been decent, with a team ERA of 3.72 (6th in the league) and ranking 3rd in saves (35).
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have been one of the better teams in the league this season, with a 59-44 record and sitting at the top of the NL Central. The Brewers have been strong at home with a 29-18 record. Offensively, they have struggled at times, ranking 17th in hits (831) and 29th in runs (374). However, their pitching staff has been solid, with a team ERA of 4.48 (25th in the league) and ranking tied-27th in saves (20).
Team Injuries
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | SP | Out for the season (Elbow) |
| Josh Simpson | RP | Expected to be out until at least Aug 8 (Elbow) |
| Rob Zastryzny | RP | Expected to be out until at least Aug 9 (Elbow) |
| Devin Williams | RP | Expected to be out until at least Jul 29 (Back) |
Recent Games
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Miami Marlins
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| New York | 6-4 | W |
| New York | 0-1 | L |
| New York | 4-2 | W |
| New York | 4-6 | L |
| Baltimore | 6-3 | W |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 8-4 | W |
| Minnesota | 8-7 | W |
| Chicago | 1-3 | L |
| Chicago | 1-0 | W |
| Chicago | 3-2 | W |
Prediction
Pick: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Jackson Chourio has been in excellent form recently, and with the favorable odds, picking him to get over 1.5 total bases seems like a smart bet. With his recent performance of 13 hits in 42 at-bats, including four doubles and a home run, Chourio has demonstrated his ability to reach base multiple times in a game. Furthermore, facing a pitcher like Max Meyer, who has been effective but is still relatively inexperienced, provides Chourio with an opportunity to capitalize on any mistakes. Betting on Chourio to have another strong outing and surpass 1.5 total bases is a solid pick.
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