MLB Player Props Advice: Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets 7/29

A Plus Picks
Jul 29, 2024, 4:33:46 PM

Photo Credit: © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

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Game Summary

The Minnesota Twins are set to face off against the New York Mets at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Monday, July 29, 2024, at 7:10 p.m. EDT. This matchup marks the first game of a three-game series between the Twins and the Mets. The Mets come into this game with a record of 55-50, placing them third in the NL East. They have been solid at home with a 28-28 record and have an impressive 43-12 record when out-hitting their opponents.

On the other hand, the Twins carry a 58-46 record, ranking second in the AL Central. They have done well on the road, holding a 29-25 record. The Twins have a notable power-hitting presence, ranking fifth in the AL with 125 total home runs. Recent performances by key players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Santana have been instrumental in their success.

In their last ten games, the Mets have a 6-4 record with a .229 batting average and a 3.84 ERA, outscoring their opponents by three runs. Meanwhile, the Twins have a 5-5 record, a .240 batting average, and a 3.46 ERA, outscoring their opponents by five runs. Injuries could play a role in this series, with key players like Carlos Correa for the Twins and Francisco Alvarez for the Mets potentially missing time due to injuries.

Player Prop Odds

Here are the available player prop odds for Harrison Bader:

Batter Doubles (0.5): Over +440
Batter Hits (0.5): Over -175
Batter RBIs (0.5): Over +210
Batter Runs Scored (0.5): Over +110
Batter Singles (0.5): Over -105
Batter Stolen Bases (0.5): Over +270
Batter Total Bases (1.5): Over +165

Player Analysis

Harrison Bader has been a consistent performer for the Mets this season. Known for his speed and defensive prowess, Bader has also contributed significantly on the offensive side. With a decent batting average and the ability to get on base frequently, Bader is a key player in the Mets' lineup. His speed makes him a threat on the basepaths, evident in his stolen bases prop.

In his recent games, Bader has shown an ability to get hits and score runs. His prop odds for hits and runs scored are worth considering given his current form. Additionally, the +440 odds on doubles present a high-reward option, although it comes with higher risk.

Opposing Analysis

The Twins will be sending Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound. Woods Richardson has been solid this season, with a 3-1 record, a 3.27 ERA, and 76 strikeouts. The Twins' pitching staff has been reliable, and Woods Richardson will look to continue his strong performances against the Mets.

The Twins' bullpen has also been effective, ranking 10th in saves. However, their defense has been a bit shaky, ranking third in errors. This could provide opportunities for aggressive base runners like Bader to exploit any defensive lapses.

Pitching Probables

Pitcher	Team	W-L	ERA	Strikeouts
Simeon Woods Richardson	Minnesota Twins	3-1	3.27	76
Jose Quintana	New York Mets	5-6	4.02	85

Team Previews

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have been a strong offensive team, ranking 6th in runs and 10th in hits in the league. Their batting average of .248 ranks 12th, showing their ability to consistently put the ball in play. The Twins' power-hitting ability is highlighted by their 125 home runs, ranking 5th in the AL. Defensively, however, they have struggled with errors, ranking 3rd in the league.

The Twins' pitching staff has been decent, with a 4.19 ERA ranking 21st. Their relief pitching has been a strength, with 28 saves ranking 10th in the league. Key players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Santana have been pivotal in both offensive and defensive aspects of the game.

New York Mets

The Mets have also been strong offensively, with 505 runs (7th) and 897 hits (9th) in the league. Their batting average of .253 ranks 8th, showing their ability to get on base and produce runs. The Mets' power-hitting and ability to rack up hits have been key factors in their success this season.

On the pitching side, the Mets have a team ERA of 4.09, ranking 20th. Their relief pitching has been effective, with 30 saves ranking 7th. The Mets' defense has been solid, with fewer errors compared to the Twins, ranking 24th in the league.

Team Injuries

Minnesota Twins

Player	Position	Injury	Injury Status
Carlos Correa	SS	Heel	Expected to be out until at least Aug 9
Kyle Farmer	2B	Shoulder	Expected to be out until at least Jul 29

New York Mets

Player	Position	Injury	Injury Status
Francisco Alvarez	C	Shoulder	Expected to be out until at least Jul 30

Recent Games

Minnesota Twins

Opponent	Score	W/L
@ Detroit	W 5-0	W
@ Detroit	L 7-2	L
@ Detroit	W 9-3	W
vs Philadelphia	W 5-4	W
vs Philadelphia	L 3-0	L

New York Mets

Opponent	Score	W/L
vs Atlanta	L 9-2	L
vs Atlanta	L 4-0	L
vs Atlanta	W 8-4	W
vs Atlanta	W 3-2 F/10	W
@ New York	W 12-3	W

Prediction

Given the recent form and the matchup, Harrison Bader's prop for Over 0.5 Hits at -175 seems like a solid pick. He has been consistent in getting on base, and facing a pitcher like Woods Richardson, Bader has a good chance to log at least one hit. Another intriguing option is Over 0.5 Runs Scored at +110, considering his ability to get on base and the Mets' ability to drive in runs.

Pick: Harrison Bader Over 0.5 Hits (-175)

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