MLB Player Prop Predictions: Guardians vs Tigers 7/29

- A Plus Picks
- Jul 29, 2024, 4:06:33 AM
MLB Player Prop Predictions: Guardians vs Tigers 7/29
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Photo Credit: © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Detroit Tigers are set to host the Cleveland Guardians to kick off a two-game series on Monday, July 29th, 2024, at Comerica Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. This matchup features two teams from the American League Central Division, with the Guardians currently holding the top spot with a 63-42 record, while the Tigers are in fourth place with a 52-55 record.
Detroit's home record stands at 25-26, and they have shown a propensity to win games when they hit at least two home runs, boasting an impressive 24-4 record in such games. Conversely, Cleveland has a solid road record of 30-27 and is known for their seventh-ranked team batting average in the AL at .240.
In their previous 11 meetings this season, the Tigers have a slight edge with a 6-5 advantage over the Guardians. Both teams have had mixed results in their last ten games, with Detroit going 5-5 while batting .207 with a 3.62 ERA, and Cleveland also going 5-5 but with a .214 batting average and a 3.24 ERA.
Key performers for the Tigers include Matt Vierling, who has 18 doubles, five triples, and 13 home runs, and Riley Greene, who has been on fire, going 12-for-37 with four doubles in his last ten games. For the Guardians, Steven Kwan leads with a .342 batting average, 14 doubles, two triples, and 11 home runs, while José Ramírez has been productive with 10 hits, one home run, and five RBIs in his last ten games.
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Player Prop Odds
For Justyn-Henry Malloy:
- Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+450), Under 0.5 (-800)
- Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-150), Under 0.5 (+110)
- Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+240), Under 0.5 (-350)
- Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+175), Under 0.5 (-245)
- Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+125), Under 0.5 (-175)
- Batter Total Bases: Over 0.5 (-150), Under 0.5 (+110)
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Player Analysis
Justyn-Henry Malloy has been a consistent performer for the Tigers this season. While his stats may not be eye-popping, he has shown the ability to get on base and contribute in key situations. With a batting average hovering around .250 and his ability to hit for power and average, he is a crucial part of the Tigers' lineup.
In his last ten games, Malloy has shown flashes of brilliance, making him a potential sleeper for prop bets. Given the odds for his various props, there is value to be found, particularly in his total bases and hits markets.
Opposing Analysis
The Guardians' probable starter, Tanner Bibee, has been effective this season with an 8-4 record, a 3.50 ERA, and 130 strikeouts over 115.2 innings. However, he has shown vulnerability against right-handed hitters, which could play into Malloy's strengths.
Bibee's success has been built on his ability to limit walks and keep the ball in the park, but with Malloy's knack for hitting and getting on base, there's a good chance he could make an impact in this game.
Pitching Probables
For the Cleveland Guardians:
- Tanner Bibee: 8-4, 3.50 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 130 strikeouts
For the Detroit Tigers:
- Jack Flaherty: 7-5, 2.95 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 133 strikeouts
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Team Previews
Cleveland Guardians:
- Batting Average: .231 (26th)
- Runs: 455 (16th)
- Hits: 830 (22nd)
- ERA: 3.92 (14th)
- Fielding Errors: 60 (8th)
Detroit Tigers:
- Batting Average: .240 (16th)
- Runs: 478 (13th)
- Hits: 832 (21st)
- ERA: 3.67 (4th)
- Fielding Errors: 56 (15th)
Team Injuries
Cleveland Guardians:
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Hentges | RP | 15-Day IL (Shoulder) |
| Shane Bieber | SP | 60-Day IL (Elbow) |
| Trevor Stephan | RP | 60-Day IL (Elbow) |
| James Karinchak | RP | 60-Day IL (Shoulder) |
Detroit Tigers:
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene | LF | 10-Day IL (Hamstring) |
| Kerry Carpenter | RF | 60-Day IL (Spine) |
| Reese Olson | SP | 15-Day IL (Shoulder) |
| Parker Meadows | CF | 10-Day IL (Hamstring) |
| Casey Mize | SP | 15-Day IL (Hamstring) |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long | SP | 60-Day IL (Groin) |
Recent Games
Cleveland Guardians:
| Date | Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | vs San Diego | W 7-0 | W |
| Sat, Jul 20 | vs San Diego | L 7-0 | L |
| Sun, Jul 21 | vs San Diego | L 2-1 | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | vs Detroit | L 8-2 | L |
| Tue, Jul 23 | vs Detroit | W 5-4 | W |
Detroit Tigers:
| Date | Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Jul 19 | @ Toronto | W 5-4 | W |
| Sat, Jul 20 | @ Toronto | W 7-3 | W |
| Sun, Jul 21 | @ Toronto | L 5-4 | L |
| Mon, Jul 22 | @ Cleveland | W 8-2 | W |
| Tue, Jul 23 | @ Cleveland | L 5-4 | L |
Prediction
Given the analysis of Justyn-Henry Malloy's recent performances and the opposing pitcher Tanner Bibee's potential vulnerabilities, there is value in the following prop bet:
Pick: Justyn-Henry Malloy Over 0.5 Total Bases (-150)
Malloy's ability to get on base and Bibee's susceptibility to right-handed hitters make this a favorable bet.
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