MLB Player Prop Prediction: Tyler Stephenson - Reds vs Rays 7/28

MLB Player Prop Prediction: Tyler Stephenson - Reds vs Rays 7/28

Photo Credit: © Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Cincinnati Reds and Tampa Bay Rays face off in the decisive game of their three-game series on Sunday, July 28, 2024, at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. The game is scheduled to start at 11:35 a.m. EDT. Both teams are aiming for a series win, making this matchup crucial for their playoff aspirations.

The Reds enter the game with a 50-54 record overall and a 25-26 record on the road. They have shown some offensive power, ranking 10th in the NL with a collective .392 slugging percentage. Their recent form has been a mixed bag, going 5-5 in their last ten games with a .216 batting average and a 4.14 ERA.

The Rays, on the other hand, have a 53-52 overall record and a 28-28 record at home. They have been particularly effective when scoring at least five runs, boasting a 32-6 record in such games. The Rays have also gone 6-4 in their last ten games, with a .219 batting average and a stellar 2.76 ERA.

This will be the third meeting between these teams this season, with each team having won one game apiece. Key players for the Reds include Spencer Steer, who has 24 doubles, two triples, 15 home runs, and 64 RBIs, and Elly De La Cruz, who is 13-for-40 with three doubles, a triple, and three home runs over the last ten games. For the Rays, Isaac Paredes stands out with 16 home runs, 51 walks, and 55 RBIs while hitting .247, and Amed Rosario is 13-for-31 with four doubles and an RBI over the past ten games.

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Player Prop Odds

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Tyler Stephenson Player Props:

• Doubles: Over 0.5 (+350), Under 0.5 (-575)
• RBIs: Over 0.5 (+185), Under 0.5 (-260)
• Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+145), Under 0.5 (-200)
• Singles: Over 0.5 (-110), Under 0.5 (-125)
• Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+130), Under 1.5 (-180)

Player Analysis: Tyler Stephenson

Tyler Stephenson has been a consistent performer for the Reds this season. He is hitting .266 with a .341 OBP, contributing significantly to the team's offensive output. While his power numbers aren't overwhelming, Stephenson has a knack for getting on base and driving in runs when it matters most.

In his recent games, Stephenson has shown a solid form. He has multiple multi-hit games and has been reliable in clutch situations. His ability to find gaps and hit for average makes him a valuable asset, especially against pitchers who may struggle with command.

Opposing Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays Pitching

The Rays will start Shawn Armstrong, who has had a challenging season so far. Armstrong has a 2-2 record with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP over 44.2 innings. His strikeout numbers are decent, with 49 Ks, but he has also struggled with control, walking 19 batters and allowing 53 hits.

Given Armstrong's struggles, especially with command, Stephenson has a good opportunity to capitalize. The Rays' bullpen, though generally reliable, has shown vulnerabilities, making the matchup favorable for Reds hitters.

Pitching Probables

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Player	W-L	ERA	WHIP	IP	H	K	BB	HR
H. Greene (CIN)	7-4	3.14	1.09	117.1	80	133	48	10
S. Armstrong (TB)	2-2	5.64	1.61	44.2	53	49	19	5

Team Previews

The Reds have struggled with consistency this season, hitting .234 as a team, which ranks 23rd in the league. However, they have shown flashes of power and have some key contributors like Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz. Their pitching staff has a collective ERA of 4.15, with Hunter Greene being a standout performer.

The Rays, while also inconsistent, have a slightly better team ERA of 3.83, ranking 12th in the league. Their offense has been middle-of-the-pack, with a .230 batting average and 459 runs scored, ranking 15th in the league. Isaac Paredes and Amed Rosario have been key contributors, and their bullpen has generally been a strength.

Team Injuries

Player	Position	Injury Status
Ryan Pepiot	RP	15-Day IL (knee)
Richard Lovelady	RP	15-Day IL (forearm)
Jacob Waguespack	RP	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Jeffrey Springs	SP	60-Day IL (elbow)
Drew Rasmussen	SP	60-Day IL (elbow)
Shane McClanahan	SP	60-Day IL (forearm)
Brent Suter	RP	15-Day IL (teres major)
Carson Spiers	SP	15-Day IL (shoulder)
Nick Martini	OF	60-Day IL (thumb)
Graham Ashcraft	SP	15-Day IL (elbow)
Luke Maile	C	10-Day IL (back)
Emilio Pagan	RP	60-Day IL (lat)
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	IF	60-Day IL (hand)
Brandon Williamson	SP	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Ian Gibaut	RP	60-Day IL (forearm)
Tejay Antone	RP	60-Day IL (elbow)
Matt McLain	IF	60-Day IL (shoulder)

Recent Games

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DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	W-L	WIN	LOSS	SAVE	ATT
Fri, Jul 19	@ Washington	L8-5	47-51	Corbin 2-9	Montas 4-8	Finnegan 26	38402
Sat, Jul 20	@ Washington	L5-4	47-52	Law 6-2	Wilson 1-2	Finnegan 27	32734
Sun, Jul 21	@ Washington	L5-2	47-53	Garcia 2-3	Sims 1-4	Finnegan 28	23967
Mon, Jul 22	@ Atlanta	W4-1	48-53	Greene 7-4	Lopez 7-4	NaN	38779
Wed, Jul 24	@ Atlanta	W9-4	49-53	Moll 2-1	Winans 0-2	NaN	34407
Fri, Jul 26	@ Tampa Bay	W3-2 F/10	50-53	Martinez 4-5	Rodriguez 1-2	Diaz 20	20441
Sat, Jul 27	@ Tampa Bay	L4-0	50-54	Littell 4-7	Abbott 9-7	NaN	23464

Prediction

Given Tyler Stephenson's recent form and the favorable matchup against struggling pitcher Shawn Armstrong, we like the value in the Over 0.5 Runs Scored prop at +145. Stephenson has a good chance to get on base and be driven in by his teammates against a Rays pitching staff that has shown vulnerabilities.

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