MLB Player Prop Prediction: Nationals vs Cardinals 7/28

- Big Ben Profits
- Jul 28, 2024, 4:35:03 AM
MLB Player Prop Prediction: Nationals vs Cardinals 7/28
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Photo Credit: © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Washington Nationals (49-56, fourth in the NL East) will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals (53-51, second in the NL Central) on Sunday, July 28, 2024, at 2:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium. The Nationals are coming off a strong performance where James Wood had four hits against the Cardinals on Saturday. Washington has displayed a decent performance on the road with a 26-29 record and has been particularly effective when hitting two or more home runs, boasting a 13-8 record in such games. The Nationals are currently on a two-game winning streak, having taken down the Cardinals with scores of 10-8 and 14-3 in the last two outings.
On the other hand, the St. Louis Cardinals have been solid at home with a 26-24 record and hold a .309 on-base percentage, which is ninth in the National League. However, their recent form has been shaky as they have lost four of their last six games, with a batting average of .254 and an ERA of 5.25 over the past 10 games. Despite these struggles, the Cardinals have shown resilience with players like Nolan Gorman, who leads the team with 19 home runs, and Masyn Winn, who has been hot with two home runs and four RBIs in the last 10 games.
Both teams are evenly matched as the season series is tied 3-3, making this seventh meeting a crucial one for both sides. With the Cardinals looking to regain momentum and the Nationals hoping to continue their winning streak, this matchup promises to be an exciting contest.
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Player Prop Odds
For Pedro Pages, the player prop odds are as follows:
- Batter Doubles: 0.5 (Over: +380, Under: -650)
- Batter Hits: 0.5 (Over: -190, Under: +140)
- Batter RBIs: 0.5 (Over: +185, Under: -260)
- Batter Runs Scored: 0.5 (Over: +165, Under: -225)
- Batter Singles: 0.5 (Over: +110, Under: -150)
- Batter Total Bases: 0.5 (Over: -190, Under: +140)
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Player Analysis: Pedro Pages
Pedro Pages has been a consistent performer for the Cardinals, contributing significantly in their recent games. Despite his team's struggles, Pages has managed to maintain a steady presence at the plate. Looking at his recent performances, Pages has accumulated multiple hits in key situations, making him a crucial player for the Cardinals' offense. With an over/under line set at 0.5 hits, Pages has a realistic chance to exceed this mark given his current form and the Nationals' recent pitching struggles.
Opposing Analysis: Nationals Pitching
The Nationals' pitching staff has been inconsistent, with DJ Herz (1-4, 4.95 ERA) set to start against the Cardinals. Herz has struggled to maintain control, walking 11 batters in 36.1 innings pitched, and has given up 40 hits. The Nationals' bullpen has also had its issues, with an overall ERA of 5.30 over their last 10 games. This presents an opportunity for Pages to capitalize on the Nationals' pitching weaknesses, particularly in the later innings.
Pitching Probables
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Herz (WAS) | 1-4 | 4.95 | 1.40 | 45 |
| Miles Mikolas (STL) | 8-8 | 5.02 | 1.23 | 80 |
Team Previews
Washington Nationals
The Nationals have been average offensively, ranking 14th in batting average (.245) and 22nd in runs scored (426). They have shown some power with 21 doubles, six triples, and 15 home runs from C.J. Abrams. Their bullpen has been a strength, leading the league with 37 saves. However, their fielding has been a concern with 46 errors, ranking 26th.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have had a mixed season with a .237 batting average (19th) and 433 runs scored (20th). Nolan Gorman has been a standout with 19 home runs. The Cardinals' pitching has been inconsistent, with a team ERA of 4.22 (22nd) and 59 errors (9th). Their bullpen has been relatively solid, ranking 8th in saves with 29.
Team Injuries
Washington Nationals
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Weems | RP | 15-Day IL (shin) |
| Cade Cavalli | SP | 60-Day IL (elbow) |
| Joey Gallo | OF | 10-Day IL (hamstring) |
| Trevor Williams | SP | 15-Day IL (shoulder) |
| Mason Thompson | RP | 60-Day IL (elbow) |
St. Louis Cardinals
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | SP | 60-Day IL (back) |
| Keynan Middleton | RP | 60-Day IL (forearm) |
| Nick Robertson | RP | 15-Day IL (elbow) |
| Riley O'Brien | RP | 60-Day IL (forearm) |
| Tommy Edman | INF | 60-Day IL (wrist) |
| Drew Rom | SP | 60-Day IL (biceps) |
Recent Games
Washington Nationals
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Cincinnati | W 8-5 | W |
| vs Cincinnati | W 5-4 | W |
| vs Cincinnati | W 5-2 | W |
| vs San Diego | L 4-0 | L |
| vs San Diego | L 12-3 | L |
St. Louis Cardinals
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Atlanta | Postponed | Postponed |
| @ Atlanta | L 3-2 F/10 | L |
| @ Atlanta | W 9-5 | W |
| @ Atlanta | W 6-2 | W |
| @ Pittsburgh | L 2-1 | L |
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Prediction
Pick: Pedro Pages Over 0.5 Hits (-190)
Pedro Pages has been a reliable contributor for the Cardinals and given the Nationals' recent pitching struggles, he has a favorable matchup to exceed 0.5 hits. The odds of -190 suggest a high probability, and considering Pages' current form and the Nationals' bullpen issues, this prop seems a solid bet.
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