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MLB Player Prop Analysis: Ranger Suarez Over 3.5 Hits Allowed vs. New York Mets - October 9, 2024

The Philadelphia Phillies face the New York Mets in Game 4 of the NLDS, with the Mets leading the series 2-1. As Ranger Suarez takes the mound for the Phillies, the player prop in focus is Suarez allowing over or under 3.5 hits.  

 

Game Odds

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)	-120	-1.5 (+150)	Over 7.5 (EVEN)
New York Mets (89-73)	-105	+1.5 (-180)	Under 7.5 (-120)

 

Team Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies enjoyed a successful regular season, but Ranger Suarez has faced issues with consistency. With a 3.46 ERA and 140 hits allowed over 150.2 innings, Suarez has been vulnerable, especially in recent outings. Philadelphia’s offense, led by Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner, will need to step up, but Suarez’s ability to limit the Mets' hitters will be a key factor in keeping their postseason alive.

New York Mets

The Mets have been a solid offensive team all season, led by Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. They’ve already proven they can make contact against Suarez, and with their home-field advantage in Game 4, expect the Mets' hitters to be aggressive early. The Mets’ ability to generate base hits has been key to their success, and with Suarez’s recent form, New York should be able to exceed the 3.5 hits line.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Ranger Suarez (Philadelphia Phillies)

Ranger Suarez finished the 2024 season with a 3.46 ERA and 145 strikeouts over 150.2 innings. However, he has been inconsistent in September, allowing 31 hits over just 22.1 innings in his last five starts. This includes a particularly rough outing against the Washington Nationals on September 27, where Suarez allowed seven hits in only two innings.

Suarez's recent track record of allowing multiple hits, combined with the Mets’ offense, suggests he will struggle to keep their hitters in check. Given the Mets' contact-heavy approach, it’s highly likely that Suarez will give up at least four hits in this game.

Jose Quintana (New York Mets)

Quintana has been effective in the postseason, allowing just four hits in six innings in his last start. While the focus of this analysis is on Suarez’s hits allowed, Quintana’s ability to limit damage will also put pressure on Suarez to perform at his best.

Recent Performance

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been 2-3 in their last five games, including a 7-6 victory over the Mets in Game 2 of this series. However, Suarez’s recent form has been concerning. In his last five starts, he has allowed 31 hits in just 22.1 innings, including two starts where he allowed five or more hits.

New York Mets

The Mets have been 3-2 in their last five games, including a 6-2 victory in Game 1 of this series. They have consistently found ways to make contact and get on base, which bodes well for this prop bet. With Alonso and Lindor leading the offense, the Mets will likely continue to apply pressure on Suarez throughout the game.

Head-to-Head Comparison

Suarez has faced the Mets multiple times this season, with mixed results. In his last start against the Mets on September 21, he allowed five hits over five innings. The Mets’ lineup has proven they can make contact against Suarez, and with the stakes high in Game 4, expect the Mets to maintain that approach.

In three starts against the Mets this season, Suarez has allowed an average of 4.6 hits per game. Given his recent struggles and the Mets’ ability to generate base hits, this prop line of 3.5 hits allowed offers a strong betting opportunity.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are 86-76 against the spread (ATS) this season, but their ATS performance has been inconsistent when Suarez is on the mound. Despite a solid regular season, Suarez’s struggles in September have made it difficult for the Phillies to cover spreads.

New York Mets

The Mets are 88-74 ATS this season, and they’ve been strong at home, covering the spread in 56% of their games at Citi Field. With their offense in good form and Suarez’s vulnerability to hits, the Mets are well-positioned to exceed expectations in this matchup.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Ranger Suarez hits allowed: Suarez has allowed four or more hits in four of his last five starts, with an average of 6.2 hits allowed per game in September.
• Mets' offense: New York ranks highly in team contact rate and batting average, making them a strong candidate to hit this prop against Suarez.
• Phillies' defense: Philadelphia has been solid defensively, but Suarez’s struggles with command have led to an increased number of hits allowed.
• Mets at home: The Mets have been particularly effective at home this season, with a 46-35 record at Citi Field.

 

Prediction