MLB Picks May 13, 2025: Best Bets, Predictions & Player Props for Every Game - Part 2

Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres

Probable Pitchers: LAA: Patrick Sandoval (LHP) vs. SD: Joe Musgrove (RHP)
Odds: San Diego -155, Los Angeles +135; Over/Under 7.5 runs

Prediction: Southern California bragging rights are on the line as the Angels visit the Padres. The Padres have underperformed relative to their star-studded roster, but they remain a dangerous team capable of exploding offensively at any time. The Angels, meanwhile, are fighting to stay around .500, but have had their own consistency issues. On the mound, Joe Musgrove goes for San Diego. Musgrove is a steady right-hander with a diverse pitch arsenal – he’s typically very reliable at home, posting an ERA in the low-3s in his starts at Petco Park. After a brief injured-list stint earlier, he’s back to form and has been giving the Padres quality outings (think 6+ innings, 2 or 3 runs). Patrick Sandoval starts for Los Angeles. The lefty Sandoval is something of an unsung talent; he has good stuff (a strong changeup and slider) and can frustrate lineups when he’s commanding. However, his season so far has been marred by some inconsistency and lack of run support, leaving him with an ERA around mid-4.00s. Sandoval will face a potent Padres lineup that, at least on paper, should be much better than it has shown. Manny Machado is the anchor (though he has had a slow start, he’s always a threat), and Juan Soto has been heating up at the plate after a sluggish April. Fernando Tatis Jr. is back in action and adds a dynamic power-speed element atop the lineup. Xander Bogaerts gives San Diego another All-Star bat, though he’s been dealing with some minor injury issues (assuming he’s in the lineup, he’s a tough out). If anything has held the Padres back, it’s been hitting with runners in scoring position – they’ve left a lot of guys on base. The Angels offense, on the other hand, revolves almost entirely around Mike Trout now. Shohei Ohtani, their other superstar, is currently not pitching (recovering from elbow surgery), and by 2025 it’s possible Ohtani isn’t on the Angels at all (depending on offseason moves). For this scenario, we’ll assume Ohtani is not in the lineup. That leaves Trout as the primary threat, and while he’s still one of the best hitters in baseball, teams have been able to pitch around him at times because the Angels’ supporting cast isn’t particularly fearsome. Guys like Anthony Rendon (if healthy) or young Mickey Moniak can contribute, but it’s not a deep lineup by any stretch. Facing Musgrove and the Padres’ solid bullpen, the Angels might scuffle to put up runs. Petco Park is also a pitcher-friendly venue, especially at night when marine air can knock down fly balls. This game sets up as a lower-scoring contest, something like a 4-2 Padres win. San Diego’s offense might scratch out a few runs against Sandoval via patience and timely hits, while the Angels could be mostly held in check aside from maybe Trout. The edge clearly goes to the Padres due to more lineup weapons and a bit more consistency on the mound.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs – With two quality pitchers and an underachieving Angels offense, the under looks appealing. The Padres’ bats have name value, but many of their games have actually been on the lower scoring side, especially at Petco. Musgrove should be able to navigate the Angels without too much trouble, as San Diego can deploy strategies to avoid letting Mike Trout beat them (e.g., pitching around him in big spots). Meanwhile, Sandoval can hold his own against the Padres – San Diego hasn’t hit lefties exceptionally well and can at times be stymied by good off-speed stuff (which is Sandoval’s specialty). Unless the bullpens falter late, this feels like a 3-2 or 4-3 type game. There’s always risk with the star power present (one big inning could sink an under), but statistically, both teams have leaned towards the under in similar matchups. Play the under 7.5 and expect a pitchers’ duel into the late innings.

Top Player Prop: Mike Trout over 1.5 total bases – Even in a game where runs may be scarce, Mike Trout is the kind of talent you can back for individual performance. Trout remains an elite hitter, and he’s been one of the few consistent forces in the Angels’ lineup. Whether it’s Musgrove or a reliever, Trout can adjust – he’s historically hit well at Petco Park too, perhaps owing to familiarity from interleague play and the ballpark’s sightlines. To get over 1.5 total bases, Trout could rope a double in one of his at-bats or even leg out a couple of singles. He has a knack for rising to the occasion against good competition, and facing a high-profile team like the Padres might bring out a big swing or two. While San Diego will be careful with him, Trout should still see some pitches to hit, especially if the Angels manage to get a runner on ahead of him. Betting on a multi-base game from the future Hall of Famer is rarely a bad idea – he could very well be the one Angel who figures out Musgrove with an extra-base knock.

New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners

Probable Pitchers: NYY: Gerrit Cole (RHP) vs. SEA: Luis Castillo (RHP)
Odds: Seattle -115, New York -105; Over/Under 6.5 runs

Prediction: This might be the game of the night, featuring a showdown of ace pitchers and playoff hopefuls. Gerrit Cole and Luis Castillo have both been lights-out and sit among the AL’s ERA leaders. Cole, the Yankees’ workhorse, has been dominant – armed with an upper-90s fastball, nasty slider, and renewed confidence in his changeup, he’s been mowing down hitters and often giving the Yankees 7+ innings of one-run (or no-run) ball. Castillo, the Mariners’ ace, is equally capable of brilliance – he possesses a deadly changeup and mid-90s heater and has particularly excelled at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, where he feeds off the energy of the home crowd. With pitching this strong, offense will be tough to come by for both sides. The Yankees rely heavily on Aaron Judge to spark their scoring, and he’s been doing his part with an impressive homer total and OPS to match. However, Judge can’t hit every night, and when he’s contained (or if Seattle opts to pitch around him in key spots), New York has had issues scoring. Giancarlo Stanton’s health is always a question mark, but if he’s playing, he adds a power threat (albeit one that Castillo might neutralize with off-speed pitches). Beyond those two, the Yankees’ lineup has some uncertainties – younger players and role guys who are inconsistent. The Mariners offense revolves around Julio Rodríguez, their star center fielder. Julio is a dynamic player who can change a game with a big hit or a daring play on the bases. He’s supported by the likes of Ty France (a steady contact hitter) and Cal Raleigh (power-hitting catcher), as well as Teoscar Hernández (who brings pop but also a lot of strikeouts). Seattle’s lineup overall has been middle-of-the-pack; they have occasional outbursts but also go cold for stretches, particularly against high-end pitching. Given both teams’ strengths align with pitching and their offenses have been just average by comparison, this game has all the makings of a pitcher’s duel. We might see something like 1-1 into the late innings, with perhaps a clutch homer or a bullpen slip deciding the outcome. It’s genuinely hard to pick a winner – Cole and Castillo could both throw gems. If pressed, giving a slight nod to the Mariners at home isn’t unreasonable, since they have the home-field advantage and their bullpen has been one of the league’s best (while the Yankees’ pen is also strong, Seattle’s has a slight statistical edge). But the margin is razor thin. This one could easily require the bullpens in the 8th or 9th to settle things, or even go to extra innings tied low. Fans of pitching will love this matchup.

Best Bet: Yankees moneyline (-105) – In essentially a coin-flip game, taking the Yankees at nearly even odds is a viable play because of Gerrit Cole. Whenever Cole is on the mound, New York has a chance to win, no matter the opponent or venue. He’s the kind of competitor who rises to these big moments. The Mariners being slight favorites is mostly due to being at home, but the Yankees have plenty of experience in hostile environments. One swing from Judge could be all it takes if Cole shuts down Seattle for seven innings. There’s also the factor of familiarity: the Yankees faced Castillo multiple times (including in last year’s matchups) and might have a slightly better game plan now. With how low the total is and how tight this figures to be, a single break (like a defensive error or a solo homer) could tilt it. Taking the slight underdog value on New York is reasonable in what amounts to a true toss-up. You’re effectively betting on Gerrit Cole to out-duel Luis Castillo, and given Cole’s consistency this season, it’s a bet worth making.

Top Player Prop: Gerrit Cole over 8.5 strikeouts – Cole has been a strikeout machine, and in a matchup like this, he’ll likely be amped up to bring his best. The Mariners’ lineup, while dangerous, also has a propensity to strike out, especially against high-velocity pitching. Players like Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández have relatively high strikeout rates; they can be enticed by Cole’s slider and blown away by the high fastball. In recent outings, Cole has routinely hit double-digit strikeouts or come close, as he’s leaned on his four-seamer and breaking balls to great success. Seattle’s home crowd can be raucous, but Cole has shown he can handle the pressure and actually uses it to dial up his intensity. Expect him to work deep – perhaps seven innings – and in doing so, accumulate plenty of Ks. Notching nine or more strikeouts is within his reach; in a game where every out matters, Cole will be going for the punch-out when he has two strikes. Back the over on his strikeouts and watch him try to shoulder the load for the Yankees.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants

Probable Pitchers: ARI: Zac Gallen (RHP) vs. SF: Logan Webb (RHP)
Odds: San Francisco -120, Arizona +100; Over/Under 7.0 runs

Prediction: An NL West clash in San Francisco pairs two staff aces in Zac Gallen and Logan Webb. Zac Gallen has risen to become one of the National League’s premier pitchers – at times looking unhittable with his mix of pinpoint fastballs and big curveballs. He’s a true ace for the Diamondbacks, often working deep into games and compiling strikeouts while keeping walks low. Logan Webb is the homegrown ace for the Giants, and he’s perfectly suited for Oracle Park. Webb is a groundball specialist with an excellent sinker/changeup combination; he thrives in his home stadium where the dense air and spacious outfield further suppress offense. Both pitchers enter this matchup in fine form, each sporting ERAs in the low-to-mid 3’s. Given their consistency, this has the makings of another pitcher’s duel. The Diamondbacks offense has been one of the surprises of the season – they play with speed and aggression. NL Rookie of the Year candidate (and likely winner) Corbin Carroll is the catalyst, leading the team in average and stolen bases while providing surprising pop for a player of his size. He’s the kind of player who can manufacture runs almost on his own. Arizona also gets contributions from Ketel Marte (having a bounce-back year power-wise) and Christian Walker (a steady power bat in the middle). They don’t have the huge names, but the D-backs offense has been clutch and opportunistic. However, facing Logan Webb in San Francisco at night is a tough task – balls that might be homers in Phoenix can die on the warning track in Oracle’s cool evenings. For the Giants, their offense isn’t flashy but they grind out at-bats. They rely on a platoon system and depth; one night it could be Mike Yastrzemski or Michael Conforto delivering a key hit, another night Thairo Estrada or J.D. Davis might step up. They’re middle of the road in terms of scoring, but they do have a knack for late-inning rallies and capitalizing on mistakes. Still, against a pitcher like Gallen, the Giants will likely be held in check for much of this game. The bullpens could come into play if one of the starters exits early due to pitch count, but both Arizona and San Francisco have capable relievers (the Giants’ pen in particular has been a strength, with guys like Camilo Doval locking down the ninth). In a close, low-scoring battle, one or two key moments will decide it – perhaps a defensive miscue or a big two-out hit. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if this game is 2-2 going into the late innings. The slight lean goes to the Giants thanks to home field and their comfort playing tight games at Oracle Park. A final like 3-2 in favor of San Francisco is a reasonable guess, but it truly could go either way depending on which ace makes the fewest mistakes.

Best Bet: Under 7.0 runs – With Gallen and Webb squaring off, runs figure to be at a premium. Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums, and both these starters know how to take advantage of it. Arizona and San Francisco have already played several low-scoring games against each other this season, and this one should follow suit. The total of 7 is low, but it’s justified – neither team is likely to put up a crooked number easily. Even if one starter gets nicked for 3 runs, the other might give up 1 or 2, and we still stay under. The key will be avoiding a late bullpen blowup or extra innings that could lead to additional runs, but given the teams involved, a clean 9-inning game in the range of 4-2 or 3-3 going to extras is very plausible. Trust the aces and the conditions and take the under.

Top Player Prop: Corbin Carroll over 1.5 total bases – Carroll has been a revelation for the D-backs and is arguably their most exciting player since prime Paul Goldschmidt. He can beat you in so many ways. Against Logan Webb, he’ll have to be selective, but Carroll has shown a veteran-like approach in hitting even tough pitchers. He could notch two total bases via a double (using his speed to stretch what might be a single for others) or a couple of singles, or even by walking, stealing a base (though steals don’t count as total bases, his ability to get into scoring position is noteworthy for run scoring). He’s also been known to deliver clutch hits late in games – once the Giants go to the bullpen, Carroll might feast on a reliever matchup. Also consider that Carroll loves to go opposite field, which is advantageous in Oracle Park for a lefty; the triple alley in right-center is a perfect target for his line-drive swing and speed, so a ball in the gap could easily get him 2 or 3 bases. Given his all-around ability, betting on Carroll to find his way to 2+ bases is a solid prop. He’s the engine of Arizona’s offense and usually rises to the challenge, even against quality arms like Webb.

Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Probable Pitchers: OAK: Mason Miller (RHP) vs. LAD: Walker Buehler (RHP)
Odds: Los Angeles -300, Oakland +250; Over/Under 8.5 runs

Prediction: The Dodgers hosting the Athletics sets up as a complete mismatch, pitting one of baseball’s best against one of its worst. The Dodgers are rolling again this year, sitting atop the NL West with a balanced attack and strong pitching depth. The Athletics, conversely, are enduring a rough season with a roster full of young players and journeymen as they rebuild (and with eyes possibly on a future move to a new city). On the hill, Los Angeles sends Walker Buehler, who is making his way back to ace form after missing 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. Buehler has looked sharp since rejoining the rotation – his velocity is building back up, his command is improving each outing, and he’s posted a respectable ERA in the mid-3’s in the early going. Given his trajectory, he could be even better by now, using this matchup to really stretch out and dominate. Mason Miller is an interesting starter for the A’s. He’s a young flamethrower who made headlines with his 100+ mph fastball and high strikeout potential. However, Miller has very limited big league experience and has been on a strict pitch count in many of his appearances (health and consistency are concerns; he spent time on the IL earlier in the year). When he’s in, Miller can overwhelm hitters with heat, but the Dodgers excel at making pitchers work and waiting out young arms. It’s likely Miller won’t last more than 4 or 5 innings even if he’s pitching well, and then Oakland’s league-worst bullpen would take over. That spells trouble. Offensively, the A’s are near the bottom in most categories. They have a few players showing promise – perhaps Shea Langeliers (catcher with pop) or Esteury Ruiz (speedy outfielder) – but overall, this lineup struggles to score more than a couple of runs most nights. Facing Buehler and the Dodgers’ quality bullpen is not a recipe for a breakout. The Dodgers lineup, by contrast, is an All-Star ensemble. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are both performing at MVP-caliber levels; Freeman is hitting well over .300 and Betts is doing a little bit of everything (power, leadoff homers, Gold Glove defense). Throw in Max Muncy’s power (leading the team in homers, though also with a low average) and Will Smith’s steady production at catcher, plus contributions from J.D. Martinez and others, and L.A. just has endless weapons. They are especially lethal at Dodger Stadium, where they’ve been putting up big run totals regularly. In this contest, Los Angeles should dominate. The Dodgers are known for not taking lesser teams lightly – they often jump out early against weaker pitching. If Miller is wild or nervous, L.A. will capitalize with walks and timely hits. Even if Miller impresses for a few innings, the moment the A’s go to the bullpen, the floodgates could open. Meanwhile, the A’s likely won’t get much going against Buehler; maybe a solo homer or a couple of hits strung together for a run, but not much more. The expectation is a lopsided Dodgers win, something in the range of 7-2 or 8-1.

Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 run line – It’s hard to find value when a team is a -300 favorite, but the run line at -1.5 (or even an alternate -2.5 for plus money) is the way to go. The Dodgers have a habit of blowing out inferior opponents, and the A’s unfortunately fall in that category. Los Angeles has the pitching and hitting advantage, and they’re also motivated to keep piling up wins given a tight division race. In terms of trends, the Dodgers have covered the -1.5 spread in a large majority of their home wins this season. Meanwhile, the Athletics frequently lose by wide margins (their run differential is one of the worst in decades). Los Angeles should be up by a handful of runs by the mid-game, and with their bullpen arms like Brusdar Graterol or Evan Phillips able to shut the door, the A’s aren’t likely to do backdoor covers. Take the Dodgers on the run line confidently.

Top Player Prop: Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases – Freeman is an extra-base hit machine and one of the most consistent hitters in baseball. Matchup-wise, he’ll be facing a fireballer in Mason Miller for perhaps two at-bats – Freeman handles velocity as well as anyone due to his quick swing and all-field approach. If Miller makes a mistake, Freddie can easily drive it into the gap or over the fence. Even if Miller is effective, Freeman can knock a single or two off him or certainly off the A’s relievers later. Freeman’s been hitting doubles at an impressive clip this year (leading the league in that category). The A’s pitching staff, including their bullpen, allows a lot of hard contact, so Freeman should get pitches to barrel up. Considering he often goes 2-for-4 or has a double and a walk in games, the over on 1.5 total bases is a strong bet. In a game where the Dodgers are expected to score plenty, backing their most reliable hitter to contribute multiple bases is a smart play.

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FAQ

Q: What do the moneyline odds like “-120” or “+110” mean?
A: Moneyline odds indicate how much you need to bet or can win on a given team. A negative number (e.g. -120) means that team is favored – you would need to bet $120 to win $100 (plus get your $120 back) on a -120 favorite. A positive number (e.g. +110) means that team is an underdog – a $100 bet would win you $110 (plus your $100 stake returned) if the underdog prevails. In short, “-” odds show the favorite and how much to risk for $100 profit, while “+” odds show the underdog and how much profit you get from a $100 bet.

Q: What is the run line in MLB betting, and how is it different from the spread in other sports?
A: The run line is baseball’s version of a point spread. It’s almost always set at 1.5 runs. If you bet a favorite on the run line (-1.5), that team must win by 2 or more runs for the bet to cash. If you bet an underdog on the run line (+1.5), that team can lose by 1 run or win the game outright and you still win the bet. The run line gives or takes away a run and a half to even out the matchup. It’s different from spreads in sports like football or basketball (where spreads can vary widely) – in MLB the standard is 1.5 because baseball games are generally decided by a couple of runs. Betting the run line can offer better odds on big favorites or a cushion on underdogs, but remember that roughly one-third of MLB games are decided by exactly one run, so those half-run margins matter a lot.

Q: How do you decide on the “best bet” for each game?
A: Our best bets are chosen by analyzing a combination of factors – pitching matchups, team form, statistical trends, and line value. We look at how each team has been performing (e.g., offensive output in recent games, bullpen reliability, home/away splits) and how the styles of the two teams contrast. For example, if two strong pitchers are facing off and both offenses are underperforming, the under (total runs) might be the best bet. If one team has a clear matchup advantage (say a significantly better starting pitcher or a lineup that’s red-hot), we might favor them on the moneyline or run line. We also consider the betting odds: a best bet should not only be likely to win but also offer reasonable value. Sometimes that means backing a slight underdog with upside or a favorite on the run line to reduce the juice. In essence, it’s a blend of on-field matchup insight and smart sports betting principles. Each game is unique, so we tailor the best bet to what we believe the most advantageous angle is for that particular matchup.