MLB Picks April 9, 2025 – Best Bets & Top Player Props

Kingpin
Apr 9, 2025, 5:21:25 AM

MLB Picks Today: Best Bets & Player Props for April 9, 2025

We have a full 15-game MLB slate on Wednesday, April 9, 2025, featuring several day games and intriguing matchups. Notably, the New York Mets are heavy favorites at home (-225) against Miami, and the Brewers-Rockies clash at Coors Field carries the highest over/under of the day at 10.5 runs. Meanwhile, a marquee pitching duel in Detroit (Yankees vs. Tigers) has the lowest total on the board at just 6.5. Let’s dive into each game with a brief preview, plus our best bet and top player prop for each.

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Cardinals @ Pirates (12:35 PM ET)

The Cardinals and Pirates wrap up their series at PNC Park with an early afternoon contest. St. Louis is a slight -120 road favorite behind right-hander Erick Fedde, while Pittsburgh sends Mitch Keller to the mound as a home underdog. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, hinting at a moderately low-scoring game.

Fedde is making one of his first starts for St. Louis and will try to carry over the strong form he showed in overseas play last year. Keller has emerged as the Pirates’ ace and is coming off a quality first outing this season. The Cardinals’ lineup, led by Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, has the edge in firepower and will test Keller early. The young Pirates offense (with Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes) hopes to scrape across enough runs in support of their top pitcher.

Best Bet: Cardinals Moneyline (-120). St. Louis has the advantage in lineup depth and overall experience. Fedde should keep the Pirates in check for five-plus innings, and the Cardinals’ bullpen can lock down a close win. Back the Cards to grind out a road victory.
Top Player Prop: Mitch Keller Over 5.5 Strikeouts. Keller averaged about a strikeout per inning last season and fanned 8 batters in his 2025 debut. Even if he doesn’t get the win, he should tally at least 6 Ks against a Cardinals lineup that has its share of swing-and-miss hitters.

Marlins @ Mets (1:10 PM ET)

The Mets are hefty -225 favorites as they host the Marlins in a matinee at Citi Field. New York’s offense has been rolling to start the season, and they’ll look to stay hot against Miami rookie Max Meyer. The Marlins are sizable underdogs, and the total for this game is a low 7.5 runs, indicating confidence in the Mets’ pitching to dominate.

Tylor Megill gets the ball for New York and will try to build on a strong first start where he shut down this Marlins lineup. The Mets have supported their pitchers with plenty of run support lately – Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are already knocking the ball out of the park in the opening week. On the other side, the Marlins have struggled to score (Jazz Chisholm Jr. and company have been relatively quiet), which doesn’t bode well facing an in-form Megill. Miami will need Meyer, who’s making just his second career start after debuting late last season, to keep the Mets’ bats at bay – a tall order.

Best Bet: Mets -1.5 Run Line (-110). With such a heavy moneyline, the value lies in the run line. The Mets’ offense should give Megill an early cushion, and New York’s bullpen can preserve a multi-run win. A 5-2 type victory for the Mets looks very plausible here.
Top Player Prop: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases. Alonso’s power stroke is in midseason form – he’s already homered a few times this year. Against a inexperienced righty, one swing could cover this prop. Look for Alonso to tally at least a couple of bases, whether via a double into the gap or a long ball.

Yankees @ Tigers (1:10 PM ET, Prime Video)

In a game streaming on Prime Video, the Yankees face the Tigers at Comerica Park. New York is a -150 favorite on the road, and the total is a mere 6.5 runs – the lowest of the day – suggesting a pitchers’ duel. Max Fried makes his Yankees debut season (after coming over in the offseason) opposite Jack Flaherty for Detroit.

Fried is an ace-level lefty coming off a strong year in Atlanta, and he bolsters an already formidable Yankees rotation. He looked sharp in his first start, and now he gets a Tigers lineup that ranked near the bottom in scoring last season. Detroit’s offense leans on young bats like Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, but they’ll have a tough task solving Fried’s mix of pinpoint fastballs and curves. On the other side, Flaherty is trying to revive his career in Detroit. He’s had bouts of inconsistency and is coming off a rocky 2024, but he’s still capable of flashes of brilliance. The Yankees’ lineup (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and co.) presents a major challenge – if Flaherty isn’t locating well, New York can put up runs quickly despite the spacious ballpark.

Best Bet: Under 6.5 Runs. With two talented starters on the mound and a pitcher-friendly venue, runs should be at a premium. Fried can easily throw six or seven shutout innings, and the Tigers tend to struggle offensively. Even if the Yankees scratch out a few runs against Flaherty and the bullpen, this feels like a 3-2 or 4-2 type game that stays under the low total.
Top Player Prop: Max Fried Over 6.5 Strikeouts. The Tigers were among the highest strikeout teams last year, and Fried has the arsenal to rack up Ks. He punched out 7 in his first start and should be able to reach 7+ again against Detroit’s swing-happy lineup.

Rangers @ Cubs (2:20 PM ET)

The Rangers and Cubs meet at Wrigley Field for a mid-afternoon matchup. Chicago is favored at -160 with newly-signed Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga on the hill, while Texas counters with right-hander Tyler Mahle. The over/under is 8.5 runs. On a warm afternoon at Wrigley (and potentially with the wind blowing out), we could see a fair share of offense.

Imanaga is an unknown to MLB hitters but comes with a strong track record from NPB. In his MLB debut last week, he showed solid command but did allow a couple of runs early before settling in. The Cubs offense, led by Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ, has been producing timely hits to start the year. For Texas, Mahle is a capable mid-rotation arm though not overpowering; he’s returning from elbow issues that cut short his 2024 season. The Rangers have plenty of firepower in their lineup – Corey Seager and Marcus Semien can change the game with one swing – so they’ll try to feast on a newcomer like Imanaga before he fully adjusts. This has the makings of a back-and-forth game if both offenses capitalize on the relatively average pitching.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 Runs. Both teams feature potent bats, and neither starting pitcher is a sure bet to dominate. Wrigley Field can turn into a hitter’s haven in day games, especially if there’s any breeze out. Expect a 6-4 or 7-3 type of game with plenty of action on the basepaths.
Top Player Prop: Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Total Bases. Semien loves hitting against lefties and should be aggressive against Imanaga. He could notch a couple of singles or drive one into the gap for extra bases. With his combination of power and contact, Semien is a good bet to accumulate at least 2 total bases in this matchup.

Padres @ Athletics (3:35 PM ET)

San Diego visits Oakland in an interleague afternoon tilt. Despite the disparity in team talent on paper, this game is close to a pick’em with Oakland actually a slight -115 favorite at home. Randy Vasquez (Padres) faces Osvaldo Bido(Athletics) on the mound, and oddsmakers have set a high total of 9.5 runs, expecting some offense.

It’s a bit surprising to see the A’s favored, but the Padres are rolling out Vasquez, a young righty likely making a spot start. Vasquez may be on a short leash and San Diego’s bullpen has been taxed recently. Oakland’s starter Bido is a journeyman who can be hit or miss; he had an ERA over 5 last year in limited duty, so San Diego’s bats will view this as an opportunity. The Padres’ lineup (Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado) is far more dangerous than Oakland’s, but the Friars have been inconsistent early on, which explains the tight odds. Oakland’s offense doesn’t scare anyone – they’re near the bottom of the league in runs so far – but they might scratch a few across against an inexperienced pitcher. Still, if the Padres offense wakes up, they could single-handedly push this total high.

Best Bet: Over 9.5 Runs. With two unproven pitchers and a shaky bullpen situation, this game could turn into a slugfest or at least see steady scoring. The Padres have enough firepower to put up a big number on their own, and even Oakland might contribute a few runs. A 7-5 type final wouldn’t surprise us, so we’ll ride with the over.
Top Player Prop: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases. Soto’s patient approach and power make him a constant threat to reach base multiple times. Bido tends to pitch to contact, and that plays into Soto’s ability to drive the ball. Whether it’s a pair of singles or an extra-base hit, look for Soto to accumulate at least two total bases in this matchup.

Orioles @ Diamondbacks (3:40 PM ET)

Two exciting young teams face off in Arizona as the Diamondbacks (-125 favorites) host the Orioles. The pitching matchup features Dean Kremer for Baltimore against Brandon Pfaadt for Arizona. The total is 9.5, suggesting offense could be on the menu at Chase Field.

The Orioles and D-backs both boast lineups full of up-and-coming talent. Baltimore’s offense revolves around Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Anthony Santander, while Arizona counters with Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker. Neither Kremer nor Pfaadt is an ace, and both can be vulnerable. Kremer is a strike-thrower but can give up hard contact, which could be trouble in this hitter-friendly park. Pfaadt, a young righty, had an up-and-down rookie year in 2024; he’s looking to establish consistency but will have to navigate a tough O’s batting order. Arizona won the first game of this series in a shootout, and they’ll aim to secure the series behind their home crowd and an offense that’s been clicking. Baltimore, meanwhile, is trying to avoid a sweep and has the bullpen advantage if they can get a lead late.

Best Bet: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-125). Arizona at home with their offense in a groove gets the nod. Pfaadt doesn’t need to be perfect – if he can deliver a quality start, the D-backs bats should do enough against Kremer and a middling Baltimore pitching staff. In a close matchup, the slight home favorite is the pick.
Top Player Prop: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases. Carroll’s speed and pop make him a constant threat for extra bases. He can leg out a triple or double in the gap with ease. Facing a right-hander like Kremer, the lefty-hitting Carroll should see pitches he can drive. Expect him to reach two or more total bases, whether via a couple of hits or one big one.

Reds @ Giants (3:45 PM ET)

At Oracle Park, the Giants are -155 favorites behind veteran Justin Verlander, who signed with San Francisco in the offseason. The visiting Reds send Nick Martinez to the hill. The over/under is set at 7.5 runs – relatively low, reflecting the presence of Verlander and the pitcher-friendly conditions in San Francisco.

Verlander may be 42 years old, but he’s still capable of high-level pitching. In his first start with the Giants, he looked every bit the savvy ace, working around baserunners and displaying his trademark competitiveness. The Reds’ lineup is young and talented – led by electrifying shortstop Elly De La Cruz – but they’re prone to strikeouts and growing pains. Martinez, on the other hand, is a swingman who the Reds picked up to bolster their rotation. He’s generally reliable for five innings but won’t overpower many hitters. San Francisco’s offense has been middle-of-the-pack; they rely on veterans like Mike Yastrzemski and emerging hitters like Casey Schmitt to scratch out runs. They may not explode for a huge score, but facing Martinez could be a good chance to plate 4-5 runs. With Verlander likely to stifle the Reds, that would be enough.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 Runs. Oracle Park and a matchup featuring Verlander usually spells a low-scoring game. We don’t expect Cincinnati to do much against the future Hall-of-Famer, and the Giants aren’t an offensive juggernaut either. A 4-2 Giants win fits the script, keeping this under the total.
Top Player Prop: Justin Verlander Over 6.5 Strikeouts. The wily veteran still knows how to miss bats. He struck out 7 in his debut in a Giants uniform and gets a Reds team that chases plenty. Don’t be surprised if Verlander racks up 7 or more Ks over six or seven innings of work.

Dodgers @ Nationals (4:05 PM ET)

The Dodgers continue their road trip in Washington as -180 favorites, signaling a significant mismatch. Los Angeles will start Landon Knack, a promising young righty, while the Nationals counter with Jake Irvin. The total is set at 9.5 runs, and most of those are expected to come from the Dodgers’ side of the ledger.

Even with a rookie pitcher on the mound, the Dodgers have a huge advantage because of their lineup. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have been tearing the cover off the ball early this season, and they’re backed by a deep roster of hitters that can punish even solid pitching – let alone a Nats staff that is one of the weakest in the league. Knack will be making one of his first MLB starts; he’s a highly regarded prospect with good strikeout stuff, but Los Angeles likely won’t ask him to go too deep. The Nationals, meanwhile, are rebuilding and their lineup reflects that. Aside from a few bright spots like CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz, Washington struggles to generate consistent offense. They dropped the first two games of this series, and in each, they fell behind early. Irvin is a contact-oriented pitcher who could be in trouble against L.A.’s patience and power.

Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (-110). The Dodgers should win comfortably given the firepower gap. Laying the run and a half is the way to go to avoid the steep moneyline. Los Angeles has won each of the previous games in this set by 3+ runs, and there’s little to suggest this one will be different.
Top Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBI. Hitting in the heart of a potent lineup, Freeman will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. He’s been scorching hot, and with guys like Betts and Will Smith getting on base ahead of him, Freeman just needs one timely hit (or even a productive out) to notch an RBI. We like his chances to push at least one run across in this game.

Astros @ Mariners (4:10 PM ET)

An AL West showdown in Seattle features the Astros as slight -125 favorites on the road. Houston sends young right-hander Hunter Brown to the mound, while the Mariners have their ace Luis Castillo going at T-Mobile Park. The over/under is 7.5, implying a lower-scoring contest given the quality of pitchers.

This game could be the highlight of the day. The Mariners and Astros are division rivals with postseason aspirations, and every matchup counts. Luis Castillo has been dominant at home since joining Seattle – he’s coming off an 8-inning, 1-run gem in his first start of 2025. He’ll face a dangerous Astros lineup headlined by Yordan Alvarez (who has already gone deep a few times this year) and Jose Altuve. Houston’s hitters are never an easy assignment, but Castillo has the swing-and-miss stuff to handle them if he’s on his game. For Houston, Hunter Brown represents the next generation of Astros pitching. He has electric stuff but is still learning consistency; in his season debut, he battled through five innings, giving up a couple of runs but also flashing high strikeout potential. Seattle’s offense, led by Julio Rodríguez and Ty France, has been slow out of the gate in terms of batting average, but they have power that can erupt at any time. They’ll try to be patient with Brown and strike when he makes mistakes.

Best Bet: Mariners Moneyline (+110). In what shapes up as a close duel, taking the slight underdog at home is a smart play. Castillo is the more proven pitcher at this stage and can carry Seattle on his back. If he keeps Houston in check, the Mariners can scratch out a few runs against Brown or the Astros’ middle relief and pull off a tight win.
Top Player Prop: Luis Castillo Over 6.5 Strikeouts. Castillo is in ace form, and when he’s on, he piles up strikeouts. He fanned 10 Angels in his first outing and now faces an Astros lineup that, while strong, will strike out against quality pitching (they fanned a lot in their last series). Expect Castillo to punch out at least seven batters as he goes deep into the game.

White Sox @ Guardians (6:10 PM ET)

The Guardians are -190 favorites at home hosting the White Sox, with the over/under at 7.5 runs. Cleveland will start young lefty Logan Allen, while Chicago gives the nod to Sean Burke, a rookie right-hander. This AL Central matchup could be a low-scoring affair if Cleveland’s pitching dictates the game.

Cleveland thrives on pitching and defense, and they have the clear edge on the mound in this one. Logan Allen had an impressive rookie campaign last year and started 2025 strong, using his crafty mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance. He’ll be facing a White Sox lineup that can be aggressive but is very inconsistent. Chicago’s stars like Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez have power, but the team’s approach often leads to empty innings against pitchers who don’t beat themselves. On the flip side, the Guardians’ offense isn’t explosive, but they manufacture runs with Jose Ramirez anchoring the lineup. Ramirez is off to a hot start (already with multiple extra-base hits this week) and usually feasts on inexperienced pitching. Sean Burke will have to be careful with him and others like Steven Kwan, who excels at getting on base. Burke is making one of his first MLB starts; he has talent but might find trouble if his command isn’t sharp. This feels like a game where Cleveland slowly builds a lead and leans on their bullpen to secure it.

Best Bet: Guardians -1.5 Run Line (+105). The Guardians should win behind a strong outing from Allen, and if they do, it’s likely by a couple of runs. Chicago has struggled to score in this series (they managed just 3 runs total in the first two games). Look for Cleveland to pull away 5-2 or 4-1, covering the run line at plus odds.
Top Player Prop: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases. J-Ram is the engine of Cleveland’s offense and is seeing the ball well right now. He can get to this number with one swing — a double in the gap — or by collecting two singles. Facing a rookie pitcher, Ramirez should get pitches to hit and is a good bet to reach at least two total bases.

Blue Jays @ Red Sox (6:45 PM ET)

AL East rivals meet at Fenway Park as the Red Sox are slight -125 favorites despite the Blue Jays sending Kevin Gausman to the mound against Boston’s Tanner Houck. The total is 8.5 runs. This line suggests the Red Sox’s hot bats might be getting respect over the typically superior Toronto starter.

Boston’s offense has been on a tear to open the season, with Rafael Devers leading the charge. They’re coming off a high-scoring series and will try to keep that momentum against Gausman, who is one of the better pitchers in the league. Gausman is known for his nasty splitter and high strikeout rate; he dominated in his first outing, but Fenway can be tricky, especially with the Sox seeing him frequently in divisional play. Tanner Houck, meanwhile, has transitioned to a starting role full-time. He was sharp in his debut start, but this Blue Jays lineup poses a big challenge — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have both homered already this week, and the Jays are looking to rebound after a tough loss last night. Toronto’s lineup is deep and right-handed heavy, which actually could play well against Houck’s slider if it’s not on point. Boston’s slight favorite status likely reflects home-field advantage and how well their lineup has clicked, but this one feels like a toss-up that could come down to a late-inning swing.

Best Bet: Blue Jays Moneyline (+115). There’s value on Toronto as an underdog with their ace on the mound. Gausman has the ability to silence even a hot lineup, and if he gives the Jays six or seven strong innings, the bullpen can do the rest. The Jays offense should scratch enough off Houck or the Boston bullpen to get the win. Take the plus-money on the better pitcher.
Top Player Prop: Kevin Gausman Over 7.5 Strikeouts. Gausman led the AL in strikeouts last season and picked up where he left off with a 10-K performance in his first start of 2025. The Red Sox have a few free swingers in their lineup, and Gausman’s splitter can induce plenty of whiffs. He might give up a couple of runs, but he should also sit down 8+ batters via the K.

Angels @ Rays (7:05 PM ET)

In an East Coast vs West Coast battle, the Rays are -145 favorites at Tropicana Field against the visiting Angels. Tampa Bay will send Ryan Pepiot to the mound, a right-hander acquired this offseason, while the Angels go with veteran lefty Yusei Kikuchi. The over/under is 7.5, reflecting trust in Tampa’s run prevention and some question marks around the Angels’ offense (especially post-Ohtani).

The Rays have started the season strong, as they often do, with a mix of great pitching and just enough hitting. Ryan Pepiot looked excellent in his first start in a Rays uniform, tossing five scoreless innings. The organization’s pitching magic might be rubbing off on him, as he’s filling in for an injury in the rotation and making the most of it. He’ll face an Angels lineup that still features Mike Trout but is missing the punch of Shohei Ohtani (who departed in free agency over the winter). In Ohtani’s absence, the Halos have added some pieces, but so far Trout has often been a one-man show. Kikuchi, meanwhile, had a rebound year in 2024 with Toronto and now finds himself in Anaheim. He’s been steady but will have to deal with a Rays lineup that’s very balanced. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena are the big names, and both are off to solid starts. Tampa Bay also loves playing the matchup game, so expect them to put pressure on Kikuchi with right-handed bats and their usual aggressive baserunning. In the confines of Tropicana Field, the Rays usually excel at controlling the game’s tempo.

Best Bet: Rays -1.5 Run Line (+140). Tampa’s pitching advantage and tactical edge at home make a multi-run win a realistic outcome. The Angels have lost a few close games recently, and their bullpen has been shaky late. If Pepiot gives the Rays a solid five or six innings, Tampa Bay’s elite bullpen can shut the door, and an offense that grinds out at-bats should create separation. At a nice plus payout, we’ll back the Rays to cover the run line.
Top Player Prop: Wander Franco Over 1.5 Total Bases. Franco is seeing the ball well from both sides of the plate. He’s a threat to shoot the gap or even go deep from the left side against Kikuchi. With his contact skills, he could just as easily compile two singles. Either way, we like Franco to accumulate at least two total bases as he sparks the Rays’ offense.

Phillies @ Braves (7:15 PM ET, MLB Network)

A nationally televised NL East clash on MLB Network features the Braves as -125 favorites at home against the Phillies. Atlanta gives the ball to Grant Holmes, a young righty making a spot start, while Philadelphia starts veteran Taijuan Walker. The over/under is 8.5, and this game has all the ingredients for an offensive showcase given the firepower on both sides.

Any time the Phillies and Braves meet, fireworks could follow. The Braves boast one of MLB’s most potent lineups with Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley all healthy and raking. They’ve been averaging over five runs per game so far. They’ll be licking their chops if indeed Grant Holmes is up from Triple-A – Holmes is relatively untested and will have to navigate a gauntlet of sluggers. Expect Atlanta to have a quick hook and plenty of bullpen arms ready in case Holmes runs into trouble early. On the Philadelphia side, their lineup is equally star-studded: Bryce Harper is back to MVP form after his elbow rehab, Trea Turner is a constant threat, and Kyle Schwarber can leave the yard at any moment. Taijuan Walker will need to be crafty; he had an up-and-down 2024 (his first year with the Phillies) and can be susceptible to the long ball – not ideal against this Braves team in hitter-friendly Truist Park. Both teams are likely to score in bunches, and we could see lead changes throughout. Defense and bullpen execution might ultimately decide it if the starters exit early, but one thing is for sure: the bats will be the story.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 Runs. There’s too much thump in these lineups and not enough reliability on the mound to pass up the over. Unless both teams squander opportunities, this total could be reached by the sixth or seventh inning. Something like a 6-5 or 7-4 game feels right, given the sluggers on each side. Sit back and enjoy the offensive display.
Top Player Prop: Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (Yes, +250). Let’s go bold here. Schwarber has a history of crushing Braves pitching and in a game where we expect offense, he’s a prime candidate to go deep. The matchup with a young pitcher or middle reliever is ideal for his pull power. He’s already left the yard a couple of times this season and could easily launch one in Atlanta’s warm spring air. At attractive odds, we’ll take a shot on Schwarber hitting a bomb.

Twins @ Royals (7:40 PM ET)

The Royals are slight -115 favorites at Kauffman Stadium as they host the Twins. Minnesota ace Joe Ryan opposes Kansas City’s new acquisition Seth Lugo in an intriguing pitching matchup. The total is 7.5 runs, suggesting a moderate scoring game – perhaps a bit low given Kansas City’s favored status against a pitcher of Ryan’s caliber.

Minnesota has had an up-and-down start offensively. When Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are in the lineup and producing, the Twins can put up runs, but consistency has been an issue. They were shut down last night, hence coming in as underdogs here. Joe Ryan, however, gives them a great chance to bounce back. The young right-hander was stellar last season (striking out over 200 batters) and looked sharp in his 2025 debut, featuring a riding fastball that Royals hitters might struggle to catch up to. Kansas City’s offense revolves around Bobby Witt Jr. – the dynamic shortstop who can do it all – and veterans like Salvador Perez. The Royals have been surprisingly competitive early this year, thanks in part to timely hitting from their role players. Seth Lugo, a seasoned swingman turned starter, has been a steady presence; he pitched well in his first outing for KC after signing in the offseason. He doesn’t blow hitters away, but he changes speeds and limits walks. The key for Kansas City will be keeping the Twins in the ballpark and scratching out a couple of runs off Ryan, who can be homer-prone if he misses spots. This game could very well be decided by one or two big hits or a late bullpen tug-of-war.

Best Bet: Twins Moneyline (+100). We’ll take Minnesota at even money or slight plus odds here. Joe Ryan is the best pitcher in this game, and backing the better arm often pays off in matchups this close. The Twins’ lineup has more explosive potential as well. If Ryan keeps the Royals to 2 runs or fewer through his stint, Minnesota should prevail with a few runs of their own against Lugo and the KC bullpen.
Top Player Prop: Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts. Ryan has established himself as a strikeout artist, and the Royals, for all their improvements, still have several free swingers (Witt, Pasquantino, etc.). In his first start, Ryan punched out 9 hitters. Look for him to approach or exceed that range again; we like him to get at least 7 Ks before handing it over to the bullpen.

Brewers @ Rockies (8:40 PM ET)

The nightcap at Coors Field sees the Brewers as -150 favorites on the road against the Rockies. Milwaukee hands the ball to lefty Tyler Alexander, while Colorado returns Antonio Senzatela to the hill. Not surprisingly, the total is the day’s highest at 10.5 runs in the mile-high hitting environment.

Runs are usually on tap in Denver, and this matchup should be no exception. The Brewers come in with a solid lineup featuring Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, and a mix of young talent. They’ve been averaging about 5 runs per game so far and could exceed that against a contact pitcher like Senzatela, who is making his first start after recovering from injury. Senzatela isn’t a strikeout guy, and at Coors that can spell trouble if balls start finding the gaps. Milwaukee’s offense will be aggressive, knowing the altitude can turn fly balls into extra bases. On the flip side, the Rockies have historically hit much better at home. Kris Bryant is back healthy and has been swinging well, and youngster Ezequiel Tovar is showing promise in the early going. They’ll be up against Tyler Alexander, who is typically a swingman and soft-tossing lefty. Alexander’s margin for error is slim, and Colorado’s right-handed bats will try to capitalize on that. Even if Alexander navigates a couple of innings, the Brewers bullpen might be called upon early, and while it’s a decent unit, Coors Field can humble any pitcher. Look for a see-saw affair with plenty of baserunners on both sides.

Best Bet: Over 10.5 Runs. It’s always a bit daunting to take an over this high, but Coors Field is the great equalizer. Both teams could contribute a good number of runs: Milwaukee might tag Senzatela for a big inning or two, and Colorado should find success against Alexander and middle relief. A final score in the ballpark of 7-5 or 8-6 feels very plausible given the conditions and pitching. We’ll ride with the over and expect a fireworks show to close out the night.
Top Player Prop: Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Total Bases. Yelich has been a hitting machine in the early season, consistently getting on base and driving the ball. In the thin air of Colorado, even his line drives have extra carry. He could notch two singles easily or find the gap for a double. Yelich batting leadoff means he’ll get plenty of opportunities, so we’ll bank on him to tally at least two total bases in this one.