MLB Betting Picks – Friday, April 18, 2025

Below are sharp, no-nonsense betting previews for every game on the Friday slate. Each matchup includes the key details, a recommended bet, and a targeted player prop.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM ET)

Pitching: Corbin Burnes (ARI) vs. Colin Rea (CHC)
Line: ARI -125, Total 11.5

Pick: Diamondbacks -125. Arizona has a clear edge on the mound with former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes facing journeyman Colin Rea. Burnes should stifle the Cubs lineup, and the D-backs’ offense is poised to tee off against Rea’s mediocre offerings. Back Arizona at a short price to capitalize on the pitching mismatch.

Prop: Corbin Burnes over 8.5 strikeouts. The Cubs are prone to strikeouts, and Burnes’ swing-and-miss stuff is elite. Look for Burnes to rack up Ks and cruise past this strikeout total in a dominant outing.

Cleveland Guardians @ Pittsburgh Pirates (6:40 PM ET)

Pitching: Luis Ortiz (CLE) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT)
Line: CLE -135, Total 8.5

Pick: Guardians -135. Both young right-handers have struggled early (each carrying an ERA over 6), but Cleveland has the superior supporting cast. The Guardians’ contact-heavy lineup and strong bullpen give them the edge to outlast Pittsburgh. Lay the moderate juice on Cleveland to take care of business on the road.

Prop: José Ramírez over 1.5 total bases. Ramírez is the Guardians’ best hitter and should feast on Mlodzinski’s rookie mistakes. Whether it’s a pair of singles or an extra-base hit, expect J-Ram to tally at least two bases in this matchup.

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (6:40 PM ET)

Pitching: Cole Ragans (KC) vs. Jackson Jobe (DET)
Line: KC -150, Total 7.5

Pick: Under 7.5 runs. This has the makings of a low-scoring duel. Royals southpaw Cole Ragans emerged as an ace last season and misses plenty of bats, while Tigers prospect Jackson Jobe has the talent to keep Kansas City’s modest offense in check. With two electric arms and two below-average offenses, runs will be at a premium.

Prop: Cole Ragans over 6.5 strikeouts. Ragans has been piling up strikeouts since his breakout, and Detroit’s lineup skews young and free-swinging. He should be able to punch out at least seven Tigers as he works deep into the game.

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (6:45 PM ET)

Pitching: Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs. Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Line: PHI -225, Total 7.5

Pick: Under 7.5 runs. Two ace-level pitchers face off here, making the under an enticing play despite the low total. Former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and Phillies workhorse Zack Wheeler can both go seven strong innings. Neither lineup will find runs easy to come by in what projects as a pitchers’ duel.

Prop: Zack Wheeler over 7.5 strikeouts. Wheeler is in peak form and draws a Miami lineup that often struggles against high-octane fastballs. Expect him to rack up eight or more Ks as he exploits the Marlins’ swing tendencies.

Cincinnati Reds @ Baltimore Orioles (7:05 PM ET)

Pitching: Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs. Cade Povich (BAL)
Line: BAL -160, Total 9.5

Pick: Over 9.5 runs. This game features plenty of young talent at the plate and unproven arms on the hill. Reds lefty Andrew Abbott is solid but faces a dangerous Orioles lineup in a hitter-friendly park, and Baltimore’s rookie starter Cade Povich could struggle with Cincinnati’s power bats. Both bullpens are middle-of-the-pack. All signs point to a high-scoring slugfest that sails over the total.

Prop: Ryan Mountcastle to hit a home run. Mountcastle crushes left-handed pitching, and he’ll get to see plenty of Abbott’s offerings. In a game primed for offense, bet on Mountcastle to drive one deep into the Baltimore night.

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 PM ET)

Pitching: Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs. Drew Rasmussen (TB)
Line: TB -110, Total 8.5

Pick: Rays -110. In a virtual pick ’em, side with Tampa Bay at home. Drew Rasmussen is back healthy and has been sharp, and the Rays’ deep bullpen can cover any shortfall. Yankees lefty Carlos Rodón is high-octane but erratic, and the disciplined Rays offense can grind out at-bats against him. Tampa Bay’s home-field advantage in the Trop tips this evenly matched contest in their favor.

Prop: Randy Arozarena over 1.5 total bases. Arozarena loves facing lefties, and he should see some fat pitches from Rodón. Whether it’s a gap double or a couple of line-drive singles, Randy’s mix of power and contact gives him a great chance to reach two bases or more.

Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 PM ET)

Pitching: Bryan Woo (SEA) vs. Bowden Francis (TOR)
Line: TOR -110, Total 7.5

Pick: Under 7.5 runs. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair north of the border. Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo has electric stuff and can neutralize Toronto’s lineup, while the Jays counter with Bowden Francis and a strong bullpen behind him. Seattle’s offense is inconsistent, and Toronto’s bats will have their hands full with Woo’s movement. This has 3-2 written all over it, so ride the under.

Prop: Bryan Woo over 5.5 strikeouts. Woo’s strikeout ability is the real deal. The Blue Jays have a few free swingers in the lineup, and Woo can capitalize with his high-spin fastball and slider. Six or more punchouts from the Mariners’ youngster is a solid prop play.

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox (7:10 PM ET)

Pitching: Martin Perez (CHW) vs. Hunter Dobbins (BOS)
Line: BOS -190, Total 9.5

Pick: Over 9.5 runs. Fenway Park should see plenty of fireworks in this matchup. Veteran lefty Martin Perez is a pitch-to-contact arm prone to giving up hits, and Boston’s rookie Hunter Dobbins has a lofty WHIP, indicating lots of traffic on the bases. Both teams can capitalize: the Red Sox have right-handed pop to attack Perez, and the White Sox will get their hacks against an inexperienced pitcher. Look for a high-scoring game that clears double digits.

Prop: Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases. Devers in Fenway is always a threat, and facing a soft-tossing lefty like Perez could actually work to his advantage after a couple looks. The Red Sox slugger can easily notch two or more bases via a deep gap shot or a pair of hits in what should be a big night for Boston’s offense.

St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets (7:10 PM ET)

Pitching: Miles Mikolas (STL) vs. David Peterson (NYM)
Line: NYM -175, Total 7.5

Pick: Under 7.5 runs. This matchup profiles as a sneaky pitchers’ duel. Soft-tossing Miles Mikolas thrives on weak contact and should navigate a Mets lineup that has been uneven. New York’s lefty David Peterson can frustrate the Cardinals – St. Louis traditionally struggles against southpaws and Citi Field suppresses offense. With neither club likely to light up the scoreboard, expect a low-scoring contest that stays under.

Prop: David Peterson over 5.5 strikeouts. Peterson’s slider can generate plenty of whiffs, especially against a Cardinals lineup that isn’t familiar with him. If he works into the middle innings, six strikeouts is an attainable mark for the Mets hurler in this favorable spot.

Minnesota Twins @ Atlanta Braves (7:15 PM ET)

Pitching: Chris Paddack (MIN) vs. Bryce Elder (ATL)
Line: ATL -135, Total 8.5

Pick: Braves -135. The Braves at a reasonable home price are hard to pass up. Atlanta’s explosive lineup can pounce on Chris Paddack, who is still finding his groove after returning from injury. Steady Bryce Elder keeps the ball on the ground and should contain Minnesota’s offense enough for the Braves’ bats to do their job. Atlanta has the firepower and bullpen to secure a comfortable win, making -135 a solid value.

Prop: Matt Olson to hit a home run. Olson’s left-handed power plays anywhere, and Paddack’s tendency to live in the zone could be punished. In a game where Atlanta should score, bet on Olson to launch one into the seats to help lead the Braves to victory.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Texas Rangers (8:05 PM ET)

Pitching: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs. Jacob deGrom (TEX)
Line: LAD -155, Total 7.5

Pick: Rangers +130 (underdog). This is a marquee pitching duel, but the value lies with the home underdog. Jacob deGrom, when healthy, is arguably the best pitcher on the planet – and he’s in top form to start the season. While Japan’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto has electric stuff, he’s still adjusting to MLB hitters, and the Rangers’ potent lineup can manufacture a couple of runs off him. In a toss-up duel of aces, grab Texas at plus money with their proven superstar on the mound.

Prop: Jacob deGrom over 9.5 strikeouts. DeGrom’s dominance is unquestioned, and the Dodgers, as good as they are, have a few high-strikeout hitters in their order. Under the Friday night lights in Arlington, expect deGrom to amass double-digit Ks as he tries to outshine the Dodgers’ prized rookie.

Oakland Athletics @ Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 PM ET)

Pitching: J.T. Ginn (OAK) vs. Freddy Peralta (MIL)
Line: MIL -150, Total 7.5

Pick: Brewers -150. Milwaukee has the decisive edge here. Freddy Peralta is a battle-tested starter with high strikeout ability, and he should dominate an anemic A’s lineup that struggles mightily on the road. On the other side, Oakland’s rookie J.T. Ginn is likely to be in over his head against a patient Brewers offense. Milwaukee’s home crowd and talent advantage point to a relatively straightforward Brewers win – lay the -150.

Prop: Freddy Peralta over 7.5 strikeouts. The Athletics are notorious for their high strikeout rate, and Peralta possesses a wipeout slider that can put them away. He’s a good bet to fan eight or more tonight, padding his stats against a weak Oakland batting order.

San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros (8:10 PM ET)

Pitching: Taylor Hart (SD) vs. Juan Gusto (HOU)
Line: HOU -145, Total 8.5

Pick: Over 8.5 runs. Two relatively unknown pitchers and two stacked lineups make the over attractive. The Padres send out Taylor Hart, who has been serviceable but isn’t immune to trouble, especially against Houston’s championship-caliber offense. The Astros are starting rookie Juan “Gusto,” and while debut pitchers can surprise, the talent in San Diego’s order (Tatis, Soto, Machado) will likely find ways to score. Add in two bullpens that can be hit in the late innings, and this game should push past nine runs.

Prop: Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run. Houston’s lefty slugger is always a threat, and facing a righty like Hart with middling stuff is a recipe for a moonshot. Alvarez’s raw power and elite hitting skills give him a great chance to deposit one in the seats – bank on the big man to go deep in this matchup.

Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies (8:40 PM ET)

Pitching: MacKenzie Gore (WSH) vs. Chase Dollander (COL)
Line: WSH -135, Total 8.5

Pick: Over 8.5 runs. It’s not often you see a total this low at Coors Field, and it’s a number worth jumping on. Yes, MacKenzie Gore is a talented lefty and Rockies rookie Chase Dollander comes with hype, but Coors’ thin air tends to humble even good pitchers. The Nationals have some young bats that can exploit Colorado’s shaky bullpen, and the Rockies always hit better at home. A 5-4 game is enough to cash this over, and the conditions in Denver should produce even more offense than that.

Prop: CJ Abrams over 1.5 total bases. The Nats’ speedy shortstop can burn you in multiple ways – a line-drive gapper, a bunt single and a steal, even a long triple in Coors’ expansive outfield. Abrams has been seeing the ball well and his skill set plays perfectly in Denver; look for him to accumulate at least two bases by the end of the night.

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Angels (9:38 PM ET)

Pitching: Logan Webb (SF) vs. Tyler Anderson (LAA)
Line: SF -160, Total 8.5

Pick: Giants -160. San Francisco is a sizable favorite and rightly so. Logan Webb is a groundball machine who excels at keeping hitters off-balance, and he should handle an Angels lineup that is much less fearsome now (especially if Mike Trout doesn’t have much protection around him). Tyler Anderson, meanwhile, has been hittable for Anaheim – the Giants’ mix of veteran bats and disciplined approach will grind out runs. Trust Webb to deliver a quality start and back the better team to win, even at the chalky price.

Prop: Logan Webb under 2.5 earned runs allowed. Webb’s consistency is his hallmark – he rarely gets blown up. The Angels’ offense is top-heavy and Webb can navigate it by inducing weak contact. He’s a good bet to hold Los Angeles to 2 or fewer runs over his outing, making this prop a fitting complement to a Giants wager.

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Happy betting! Stay sharp and enjoy the games – let’s cash those tickets.