MLB Picks April 17, 2025: Best Bets & Player Props Today

Kingpin
Apr 17, 2025, 4:20:43 AM

MLB Picks Today (April 17, 2025): Best Bets & Predictions for Every Game

Looking for MLB picks April 17 2025? We’ve got you covered with the best MLB bets today for all 10 games on the schedule. Below are our confident, no-fluff MLB predictions April 17 for each matchup, including a brief preview with the pitching matchup, betting line context, one best bet, and one prop featuring a key player. From moneylines and run lines to over/unders and MLB player props April 17, here’s a breakdown of every game on Thursday’s slate:

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins

Pitching matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, Diamondbacks) vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP, Marlins). The Diamondbacks send veteran lefty Rodriguez (0-2, 4.15 ERA) to face Cabrera, a young flamethrower with electric stuff but spotty control. The Marlins are slight home favorites (around -110 each) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game (over/under ~7.5 runs). Arizona’s lineup has been steady, while Miami’s offense tends to struggle against left-handed pitching, setting the stage for a tight duel.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs. Both starters have the ability to keep offenses in check. Rodriguez’s experience and Cabrera’s strikeout upside should limit big innings. With the Marlins’ offense inconsistent and the D-backs in a pitcher-friendly park, runs should be at a premium. A 3-2 or 4-3 type game feels likely, making the under the sharp play.
Player Prop: Corbin Carroll over 1.5 total bases. Arizona’s dynamic young star can create offense even in a pitchers’ duel. Carroll has the power-speed combo to notch an extra-base hit or a couple of singles. He’s a threat to grab a double in the gap, so backing him to reach at least two bases is a solid prop in this matchup.

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Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitching matchup: Trevor Williams (RHP, Nationals) vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP, Pirates). Washington gives the ball to Williams (1-1, 4.50 ERA), a contact-oriented righty, against Pittsburgh’s newly acquired lefty Heaney (0-1, 3.68 ERA). The Pirates are favored around -150 at home, as the Nationals’ lineup has been one of the weakest in baseball. The over/under is roughly 8.5 runs, with Pittsburgh expected to do most of the damage if things go as projected.

Best Bet: Pirates -1.5 run line. Pittsburgh’s offense has an edge here and should back up Heaney with enough run support to win by multiple runs. The Nats have struggled to score, especially on the road, and Williams can be hittable. Look for the Pirates to capitalize – a 5-2 victory for Pittsburgh covers the run line. Taking the Buccos -1.5 for plus odds is a smart value play against a rebuilding Nats squad.
Player Prop: Oneil Cruz over 1.5 total bases. The Pirates’ towering shortstop is a key contributor who can rack up bases in a hurry. Cruz’s raw power and improved plate approach mean he’s a threat for extra bases every at-bat. Against a soft-tossing righty like Williams, Cruz could easily smash a double or better. Back the young star to tally at least two bases in this matchup.

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Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds

Pitching matchup: Bryan Woo (RHP, Mariners) vs. Brady Singer (RHP, Reds). Seattle turns to Woo (0-2, 5.40 ERA), a talented second-year arm still finding consistency, while Cincinnati counters with Singer (3-0, 2.89 ERA). Singer, formerly with Kansas City, is thriving in Cincinnati’s rotation early on. The Mariners are slight favorites (-120) thanks to a stronger overall roster, but Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly conditions have the total high around 9.0 runs. Both teams feature young talent and power, suggesting fireworks could be on tap.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs. Expect offense in this one. Cincinnati’s home park is a bandbox, and each pitcher has vulnerabilities. Woo has shown flashes but can give up the long ball, and Singer, despite his hot start, faces a dangerous Seattle lineup. The Mariners bring pop with guys like Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández, while the Reds’ young sluggers can feast on any mistakes. A back-and-forth game that ends something like 6-5 or 7-4 feels very plausible. Hammer the over.
Player Prop: Julio Rodríguez to hit a home run. Seattle’s star center fielder is the centerpiece of their offense and loves hitting in hitter-friendly environments. Rodríguez’s combination of elite bat speed and power makes him a prime candidate to go deep in Cincinnati. One mistake from Singer or the Reds’ bullpen, and Julio could launch one into the seats. It’s a bold prop, but with the expected run environment, betting on a Julio homer is a high-upside play.

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Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox

Pitching matchup: JP Sears (LHP, Athletics) vs. Davis Martin (RHP, White Sox). In this matchup of struggling teams, Oakland starts Sears (1-2, 5.18 ERA), a crafty lefty, against Chicago’s Davis Martin (1-1, 4.50 ERA), a young right-hander filling in the back of the rotation. The White Sox are home favorites (about -140) despite a disappointing start to the season, largely because the A’s have had trouble scoring and their pitching staff is overmatched. The over/under is around 9.0 runs, reflecting mediocre pitching on both sides.

Best Bet: White Sox -1.5 run line. Chicago’s lineup has far more firepower than Oakland’s and should seize this opportunity. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez, and Andrew Vaughn can do damage against Sears, who tends to allow too much hard contact. On the flip side, the A’s offense is one of the weakest in the league and may not take full advantage of Martin’s inexperience. The White Sox can break this open early and coast, so backing them to win by 2+ runs is the pick. A 6-3 win for Chicago sounds about right.
Player Prop: Luis Robert Jr. to hit a home run. The White Sox center fielder is a bona fide star and the biggest bat in this game. Robert’s power has been on display all season, and he feasts on left-handed pitching (.320 with power vs LHP). Facing an A’s staff prone to giving up the long ball, Robert has a great chance to leave the yard. Look for him to attack early in the count – one swing is all it takes for this prop to cash.

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San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies

Pitching matchup: Jordan Hicks (RHP, Giants) vs. Cristopher Sánchez (LHP, Phillies). The Giants have converted fireballer Jordan Hicks (1-1, 3.00 ERA) into a starter, and he’ll duel with Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sánchez (1-0, 2.57 ERA). Philadelphia enters as a solid favorite (-140 range) thanks to a potent lineup and home-field advantage. The total is around 8.0 runs. San Francisco’s offense has been hit-or-miss, while Philly’s bats (Harper, Turner, Schwarber) can explode at any time, especially at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 run line. Philadelphia should have the upper hand here. Hicks, although possessing a 100+ mph sinker, is still adapting to a starting role and might not pitch deep into the game. That could expose a shaky Giants bullpen. Meanwhile, Sánchez has been steady and can neutralize the Giants’ lefty hitters. With Bryce Harper and company likely to put up runs in bunches, the Phillies are poised to win comfortably. Something like a 7-4 Philly victory is on the table, making the run line a worthwhile play.
Player Prop: Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases. Harper looks locked in at the plate and should be the catalyst for Philadelphia’s offense in this game. Whether it’s ripping a double into the gap or collecting a couple of base hits, Harper can eclipse 1.5 bases in a hurry. The Giants’ use of Hicks and a mix of relievers could give Harper multiple looks to find a pitch to drive. Back the former MVP to deliver at least two bases – his aggressive approach at home makes this prop appealing.

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Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles

Pitching matchup: Tanner Bibee (RHP, Guardians) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP, Orioles). This matchup features Cleveland’s rising star Bibee (1-1, 3.32 ERA) against Baltimore’s offseason addition Sugano (1-1, 4.20 ERA), a veteran from Japan making his mark in MLB. The Orioles are slight favorites at Camden Yards (-120), but this one projects to be close. The over/under sits around 8.0 runs. Cleveland’s strength is pitching and defense, while the O’s boast a young, explosive lineup. It’s a classic battle of pitching vs hitting.

Best Bet: Guardians moneyline. This is a spot to back an underdog. Cleveland thrives in tight, low-scoring games, and Tanner Bibee has the stuff to silence Baltimore’s bats. Bibee attacks with mid-90s heat and sharp breaking balls, which could keep Adley Rutschman and the O’s off balance. Sugano has been solid but still adjusting to American lineups; the Guardians can scratch across just enough runs with José Ramírez and Josh Naylor leading the way. In a game that might come down to the bullpens, Cleveland’s edge in pitching depth makes their moneyline a savvy pick. Don’t be surprised if the Guardians sneak out a 4-3 win.
Player Prop: José Ramírez over 1.5 total bases. The Guardians’ All-Star third baseman is the key to their offense and a good bet to make an impact here. Ramírez is a tough out from both sides of the plate, and he’ll be looking to jump on Sugano’s fastball early. Whether it’s a gap double or a pair of singles, J-Ram can accumulate two bases in this contest. He’s the type of player who rises to the occasion in tight games, so bank on him delivering at the dish.

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Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

Pitching matchup: Cole Ragans (LHP, Royals) vs. Jackson Jobe (RHP, Tigers). An intriguing duel between a breakout lefty and a top prospect. Kansas City’s Ragans (1-0, 1.95 ERA) has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, carrying over his late-2024 surge, while Detroit’s Jobe (1-0, 3.00 ERA) is a former first-round pick making just his second big-league start. The Tigers are slight home favorites (-115) mostly due to home field, and the over/under is modest (~8.0) given the question marks on offense for both teams.

Best Bet: Under 8 runs. This profiles as a pitchers’ duel. Ragans has been dominant – he’s missing bats at a high rate and looks every bit like an emerging ace. On the other side, Jobe showed poise and electric stuff in his debut. Neither offense is particularly fearsome: the Royals rely heavily on a couple of young bats and the Tigers have been near the bottom of the league in scoring. With Ragans likely to rack up zeros and Kansas City’s lineup being inconsistent, runs should be scarce. A 3-2 type game could easily unfold, so we’ll ride the under.
Player Prop: Bobby Witt Jr. to steal a base. Witt is the Royals’ most dynamic player and should be eager to make things happen on the basepaths. He already has elite speed and baserunning instincts – if he gets on against Jobe or any Tigers pitcher, look for him to take off. Detroit’s catchers have had trouble containing runners, and Witt has the green light. In a low-scoring contest, one stolen base from Witt could be a game-changer (and a winning prop for us). Bet on the Royals’ young star to swipe a bag in this one.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Pitching matchup: Carlos Rodón (LHP, Yankees) vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP, Rays). A heavyweight AL East clash features Rodón (1-3, 4.75 ERA) looking to find his Cy Young form for New York, opposite Rasmussen (1-0, 2.08 ERA) who has returned strong from last year’s elbow surgery. This game is essentially a toss-up on the moneyline (-110 each side), reflecting two talented teams. Expect a low total around 7.0 runs, as Yankee Stadium this is not – Tropicana Field tends to suppress scoring, and both pitchers are fully capable of dominating.

Best Bet: Under 7 runs. Runs will be hard to come by with these arms on the mound. Rodón, despite a slow start, has the pedigree to shut down the Rays if he locates his high-90s fastball and wipeout slider. Rasmussen has been lights-out and should handle a Yankees lineup that can be boom-or-bust. Both teams also feature strong bullpens to lock down the late innings. Even if a big bat goes deep early, the game should settle into a pitchers’ duel. Something like a 3-3 game heading into the late innings (with a 4-3 final either way) still keeps this under the total. Bank on a classic low-scoring battle.
Player Prop: Aaron Judge to hit a home run. In a game where runs are at a premium, one swing from Aaron Judge could be the difference – and we like his chances to connect. Judge has a good history at Tropicana Field and is adept at hitting even quality pitching. Rasmussen lives in the zone with cutters and sinkers, and if one creeps over the plate, Judge can unload. It might be the only Yankees run of the night, but it still cashes this prop. Back the Bronx Bomber to provide a lone bright spot with a moonshot in this matchup.

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St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets

Pitching matchup: Miles Mikolas (RHP, Cardinals) vs. Kodai Senga (RHP, Mets). St. Louis hands the ball to the veteran Mikolas (0-2, 5.10 ERA), a control specialist who pitches to contact, while New York starts Senga (2-1, 3.25 ERA), their rising ace with a nasty “ghost fork” splitter. The Mets are favorites at home (about -140) thanks to the pitching edge and a more reliable lineup. The over/under is roughly 8.0 runs. The Cardinals’ offense has been inconsistent, leaning on Nolan Arenado and young talents, whereas the Mets feature big boppers and a penchant for grinding out at-bats.

Best Bet: Mets moneyline. New York should get the job done at Citi Field. Senga has been excellent, showing improved command in his second MLB season – he can rack up strikeouts against a Cards lineup that hasn’t seen him much. Mikolas, by contrast, doesn’t overwhelm hitters and could be in trouble against Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and the patient Mets hitters who will make him work. Look for the Mets to plate runs early and let Senga and the bullpen take it from there. Taking the Mets straight up is the safe call; a 5-3 Mets win sounds about right.
Player Prop: Pete Alonso to hit a home run. Few players in the league punish mistakes like Alonso, and Mikolas might give him one. The Polar Bear has prodigious power to all fields and thrives at home, where the crowd energy fuels him. With Mikolas likely to challenge hitters in the zone (he rarely walks anyone), Alonso should get a pitch he can hammer. One swing could send a ball into the left-field bleachers. If you’re looking for a slugger prop, Alonso going deep is always a prime candidate – and tonight is no exception.

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Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Pitching matchup: Jack Kochanowicz (RHP, Angels) vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP, Rangers). The Angels call up Kochanowicz (1-1, 4.50 ERA), a young righty, to take the hill, while the Rangers entrust Rocker (0-2, 5.75 ERA) in this AL West showdown. Rocker, a heralded prospect, is still seeking his first MLB win and has had early growing pains. Texas is a sizeable favorite (-170) given their powerhouse lineup and home field at Globe Life Field. The total is one of the day’s highest (around 9.5 runs) as both pitchers are green and each lineup has firepower – especially the Rangers, who lead the league in runs.

Best Bet: Over 9.5 runs. This game has all the ingredients for a slugfest. The Rangers’ offense is stacked – Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García and company can easily put up a crooked number, especially against an unproven arm like Kochanowicz. On the flip side, the Angels still have Mike Trout anchoring their lineup, and he’s had plenty of success in Texas. With Rocker struggling with command and likely not going deep, Los Angeles should also chip in a few runs. Both bullpens are middle-of-the-pack, so the scoring may continue into the late innings. Don’t overthink it: the over is the play as this one could end up 7-5 or higher.
Player Prop: Mike Trout over 1.5 total bases. In a high-scoring affair, count on the best player in the game to get his. Trout has been seeing the ball well and historically crushes Rangers pitching. He could clear 1.5 bases with one swing via a double or homer, but he might just as easily do it with two singles and a stolen base. With the inexperienced Rocker likely pitching carefully to him, Trout will still find pitches to drive later in the game. Back the three-time MVP to make his presence felt – two or more total bases is a very attainable benchmark for Trout tonight.

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Enjoy the games, and good luck with your wagers! Each of these bets and props has been selected for the value and insight they offer – let’s cash some tickets on this exciting Thursday slate.