MLB Best Bets and Picks for Every Game on May 7, 2025

The Wednesday, May 7, 2025 MLB schedule features a full slate of games, including a few doubleheaders and some intriguing interleague matchups. Below we break down each game with the probable pitchers, betting odds (moneyline and run total), ticket price context, and our prediction with the best bet. We also highlight a top player prop for many matchups. Finally, we summarize the day’s top picks and answer common questions in the FAQ section.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Washington Nationals (12:05 PM ET, Nationals Park)

• Probable Pitchers: Guardians: Logan Allen (LHP, 1–2, 4.02 ERA) vs. Nationals: Michael Soroka (RHP, 0–1, 7.20 ERA)

• Odds: Guardians -135 (favorites), Nationals +115; Run Total: 9.5 runs

• Tickets: Starting around $9–$11 for upper-level seats at Nationals Park (affordable midday game)

Game Overview: This matchup is the first game of a doubleheader between Cleveland and Washington. The Guardians send young lefty Logan Allen to the mound, who has been solid if unspectacular so far. Opposing him is Michael Soroka, recently added to the Nats’ rotation, looking to shake off a rough start (7.20 ERA). Cleveland’s lineup has been steady, and they enter with a better record (21–15) than the rebuilding Nationals (17–20). The Guardians are favored at -135, reflecting their edge in both pitching and overall team performance. The run total is set fairly high at 9.5, indicating bookmakers expect some scoring – likely due to Washington’s vulnerable pitching and a warm afternoon in D.C.

Prediction & Best Bet: The Guardians moneyline at -135 is a reasonable play here. Cleveland has the advantage in starting pitching and a more reliable bullpen. Allen can limit the Nationals’ offense, while the Guardians should scratch runs off Soroka, who is still regaining form. For a better payout, consider Guardians -1.5 on the runline, but the safer pick is Cleveland to win outright. As for the total, we lean Under 9.5 runs – doubleheader games often see managers saving bullpen arms, and if Allen pitches deep, this could end up a 5–3 type game.

Top Player Prop: José Ramírez Over 1.5 Total Bases. Ramírez is the engine of Cleveland’s offense. Facing a right-hander who’s struggled, Ramírez has a good chance to collect a couple of hits or an extra-base knock in this early game.

Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers (1:10 PM ET, American Family Field)

• Probable Pitchers: Astros: Framber Valdez (LHP, 1–4, 4.39 ERA) vs. Brewers: Quinn Priester (RHP, 1–0, 5.79 ERA)

• Odds: Astros -130 (slight favorites), Brewers +110; Run Total: 7.5 runs (low)

• Tickets: Starting around $5 at American Family Field (plenty of seats for this weekday afternoon game)

Game Overview: Houston and Milwaukee continue their interleague series with a matinee tilt. Framber Valdez hasn’t had much run support (hence the 1–4 record), but his underlying stats are solid and he’s capable of ace-level outings. Milwaukee counters with rookie Quinn Priester, who earned his first win despite a lofty ERA. The Astros (17–18) and Brewers (19–18) have similar records, and this game projects as a tight battle – reflected by a narrow moneyline. The over/under is just 7.5, the lowest of the day, which speaks to Valdez’s reputation and the Brewers’ often inconsistent offense. In Milwaukee’s pitcher-friendly park, runs could be at a premium.

Prediction & Best Bet: The Astros moneyline -130 is the pick. Houston’s lineup, led by Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, should do enough against Priester and a Brewers bullpen that can be shaky. Valdez is a groundball machine and matches up well against Milwaukee’s lefty-heavy power hitters. A 4–2 or 5–3 win for Houston seems plausible. If you’re looking for value, the Under 7.5 runs is tempting given the pitching matchup – but be aware a couple of early homers could spoil an under. Overall, backing the Astros to win is our best bet here, trusting Valdez to outduel the inexperienced Priester.

Top Player Prop: Framber Valdez Over 6.5 Strikeouts. The Brewers have a tendency to strike out against left-handed pitching, and Valdez can miss bats when he’s on. In a game where he may work deep, he could clear 7+ Ks.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (1:15 PM ET, Busch Stadium)

• Probable Pitchers: Pirates: Mitch Keller (RHP, 1–3, 4.38 ERA) vs. Cardinals: Sonny Gray (RHP, 3–1, 4.12 ERA)

• Odds: Cardinals -175 (favorites), Pirates +145; Run Total: 8.5 runs

• Tickets: Starting around $5 at Busch Stadium (good deals for a Wednesday day game)

Game Overview: This is a NL Central showdown with the Cardinals looking to climb back to .500. St. Louis is a healthy favorite at home, which isn’t surprising given the teams’ trajectories – the Cards are 18–19 and the Pirates just 12–25 to start the year. Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray goes for St. Louis, bringing a solid track record despite a mid-4s ERA so far. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller can be a strikeout artist but has been inconsistent, and he’ll have to navigate a tough heart of the Cardinals’ order featuring Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. The Cardinals also typically hit well at home (Busch Stadium’s spacious outfield gaps can turn hits into runs with their team speed). The total is around 8.5, indicating moderate scoring; St. Louis’s offense could put up a decent number against a struggling Pirates pitching staff.

Prediction & Best Bet: The Cardinals -1.5 runline is an attractive play for a better payout. At -175, the straight moneyline on St. Louis is quite steep, so taking them to win by 2 or more runs provides value. The Pirates have been slumping offensively, and Keller could struggle with command against the patient St. Louis hitters. We predict a Cardinals win, 6–3, covering the runline. St. Louis has a bullpen advantage as well, so they can hold a late lead. If runline isn’t your style, consider pairing the Cards moneyline in a parlay. The over 8.5 runs is slightly in play if Pittsburgh chips in a few runs, but we prefer the side here.

Top Player Prop: Paul Goldschmidt to Record 2+ Hits. Goldschmidt has a strong history against Pittsburgh pitching and is heating up at the plate. In a favorable matchup at home, he could lead the charge with multiple hits.

San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM ET, Wrigley Field)

• Probable Pitchers: Giants: Robbie Ray (LHP, 4–0, 3.05 ERA) vs. Cubs: Ben Brown (RHP, 3–2, 4.88 ERA)

• Odds: Cubs -135 (favorites), Giants +125; Run Total: 7.5–8.0 runs (wind factor at Wrigley)

• Tickets: Starting around $5 at Wrigley Field (popular afternoon game with cheap bleacher seats available)

Game Overview: The Cubs and Giants square off in what could be the first of two games today (check if this is a doubleheader). Chicago is a slight favorite, owing in part to home-field advantage at the Friendly Confines. Weather often dictates scoring at Wrigley Field; a low total (around 7.5) suggests the wind might be blowing in or cross-field, and that runs could be scarce. The pitching matchup is intriguing: San Francisco’s offseason addition, Robbie Ray, has been excellent (4–0, 3.05) and brings swing-and-miss stuff from the left side. The Cubs counter with young Ben Brown, who has shown flashes but can be hittable. The Giants (23–14) and Cubs (22–15) have nearly identical records, so this game is a toss-up talent-wise. Key will be whether the Cubs’ bats (led by Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson) can crack Ray, and conversely if the Giants can pounce on Brown early.

Prediction & Best Bet: There’s underdog value on the Giants +125 here. Robbie Ray’s experience in big games and current form give San Francisco a chance to steal this one on the road. The Cubs being favored is mostly respect for their home field, but we’ll grab the plus money on the Giants moneyline in a minor upset. We anticipate a tight, low-scoring contest – perhaps Giants 4, Cubs 3 – making the Under 7.5 runs a viable play as well, especially if the wind indeed suppresses fly balls. If you want to play it safer, Giants +1.5 on the runline at around -180 could be used in parlays. But our best bet is taking the shot on San Francisco straight up as a value pick.

Top Player Prop: Robbie Ray Over 7.5 Strikeouts. The Cubs have a few free-swingers in the lineup, and Ray has been racking up strikeouts. If he pitches deep into the game, he could easily clear eight punchouts on the afternoon.

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics (Game at Sutter Health Park, Sacramento – 3:35 PM ET)

• Probable Pitchers: Mariners: Bryan Woo (RHP, 4–1, 2.58 ERA) vs. Athletics: Gunnar Hoglund (RHP, 1–0, 1.50 ERA)

• Odds: Mariners -155 (favorites), Athletics +130; Run Total: 8.5 runs

• Tickets: Starting around $9 at Sutter Health Park (special series in a minor-league park, drawing local interest)

Game Overview: This game is unique – it’s being played at a neutral site (Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento) as the A’s experiment with a venue change for a series. The Mariners (20–14) and Athletics (20–16) have the second game of a doubleheader here (with Game 1 earlier in the day). Seattle is favored with good reason: Bryan Woo has been fantastic, posting a 2.58 ERA and showing great command. The A’s send rookie Gunnar Hoglund, who impressed in his debut (1.50 ERA) but is still very green. In a unfamiliar ballpark, sometimes pitching can dominate as hitters haven’t seen backgrounds/lighting – or we could see offense if the park plays small. The total at 8.5 is mid-range, hinting that oddsmakers expect a balanced game. Seattle’s lineup, featuring Julio Rodríguez and Ty France, has more firepower than Oakland’s young squad. That, plus the starting pitching edge, gives the Mariners a notable advantage.

Prediction & Best Bet: Mariners -155 on the moneyline is our pick. It’s a bit juicy, but Seattle’s overall team strength (and the A’s tendency to struggle against quality pitching) makes it justified. If looking for more value, Mariners -1.5 runline at around +110 could cash if Seattle’s bats jump on Hoglund or a tired A’s bullpen (remember, this is the second game of the day). We predict Seattle wins 5–3. Woo should handle an Oakland lineup that is among the weaker in the AL, and the Mariners’ offense can do enough damage late. The neutral site factor introduces some unpredictability, but that mostly affects the total – we’d lean Under 8.5 if the dimensions play fair and pitchers stay comfortable. Best bet remains backing Seattle to take care of business.

Top Player Prop: Julio Rodríguez to Hit a Home Run (+HR Prop). This is a bit of a long shot fun prop, but J-Rod’s power is undeniable and a smaller ballpark in Sacramento could favor a slugger of his caliber. He’s the type of star who thrives in unique environments and could put on a show for the West Coast crowd.

New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40 PM ET, Chase Field)

• Probable Pitchers: Mets: Kodai Senga (RHP, 3–2, 1.38 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (RHP, 3–1, 4.06 ERA)

• Odds: Mets -125 (favorites), Diamondbacks +105; Run Total: 8.5 runs

• Tickets: Starting around $12–$15 at Chase Field (mid-week game, moderate demand)

Game Overview: The Mets (23–14) wrap up a road series in the desert against the Diamondbacks (19–17). New York is sending Kodai Senga, who has been an early-season revelation with a stingy 1.38 ERA. Arizona counters with their veteran Merrill Kelly, who’s been reliable and is capable of matching zeros. The Mets’ lineup has been productive, with Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor leading the way, but they’ll be tested by Kelly’s finesse pitching. Arizona’s offense, featuring Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll, has speed and pop and will try to manufacture runs against Senga’s mix of forkballs and mid-90s heat. The odds suggest a close game – essentially a pick’em with a slight lean to New York, likely due to Senga’s brilliance so far. The run total of 8.5 is standard, reflecting the balance of a good pitcher (Senga) and a hitter-friendly ballpark (Chase Field can yield homers, especially with the roof open).

Prediction & Best Bet: Mets -125 moneyline is the pick. It’s hard to go against Senga in his current form; opponents have not figured him out yet, and the D-backs offense can be neutralized by pitchers they haven’t seen before (this will be their first look at the Japanese rookie). We expect a Mets victory, perhaps 5–4, after a tight contest. Kelly might keep it close through five or six innings, but the Mets have a bullpen edge and more experienced bats for clutch situations. If you’re looking for a plus payoff, consider the Mets -1.5 runline at around +135 – although many of Arizona’s losses have been close, a late burst by New York could cover it. In terms of the total, we have a slight lean to Under 8.5. Senga might dominate, and if so, even a 5–3 game stays under. The best bet remains the Mets to win, as a modest favorite with a big pitching edge.

Top Player Prop: Kodai Senga Over 18.5 Outs Recorded. In other words, Senga to pitch at least 6.1 innings. He’s been efficient and the Mets are letting him stretch out as he adapts to MLB. Against a free-swinging D-backs lineup, he could pitch into the seventh inning, making this outs prop a solid play.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (4:40 PM ET, loanDepot Park)

• Probable Pitchers: Dodgers: Landon Knack (RHP, 1–0, 7.27 ERA) vs. Marlins: Valente Bellozo (RHP, 0–2, 4.97 ERA)

• Odds: Dodgers -200 (heavy favorites), Marlins +170; Run Total: 9.5 runs

• Tickets: Starting around $10 at loanDepot Park (plenty available for late afternoon start)

Game Overview: The Dodgers (24–12) have been the class of the NL so far, whereas the Marlins (14–21) continue to struggle despite some young talent. Los Angeles is a big favorite traveling to Miami. Interestingly, neither team has their top starters going; the Dodgers give the ball to rookie Landon Knack, who has only a few big-league innings under his belt and a bloated ERA (7.27). The Marlins start Valente Bellozo, also a newcomer who’s winless with an ERA near 5.0. This could turn into a bullpen game or a slugfest given the unproven pitching on both sides. The total of 9.5 reflects that potential for offense. Even so, the Dodgers’ lineup is significantly more potent – Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and company should feast on Miami pitching. The Marlins’ offense, anchored by Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jorge Soler, has been inconsistent and may have a hard time keeping up in a shootout. Los Angeles also boasts a much stronger bullpen, which could be the difference if both starters exit early.

Prediction & Best Bet: Expect the Dodgers to win this game, but at -200 there’s not much value on the moneyline. Instead, consider the Dodgers -1.5 runline, which should be around +110. When Los Angeles wins, they often win big thanks to their high-scoring offense. We’re predicting a Dodgers victory in the realm of 7–4 or 8–3, covering the runline. The Over 9.5 runs is also a viable bet given the pitching matchup – it might only take one of these teams having a big inning or two to reach double-digit total runs. Our recommended play is Dodgers -1.5, trusting the huge gap in lineup quality. Miami has a chance if Knack struggles mightily, but even then the Dodgers can turn to a better bullpen to secure the game.

Top Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases. Freeman is a hitting machine and against a lesser-known righty like Bellozo (and the Marlins’ bullpen), he’s likely to tally at least a couple of singles or a double. This prop cashes if Freeman gets two or more bases via hits, which is a strong possibility given his form and the matchup.

Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox (7:05 PM ET, Fenway Park)

• Probable Pitchers: Rangers: Tyler Mahle (RHP, 3–1, 1.19 ERA) vs. Red Sox: Tanner Houck (RHP, 0–2, 6.38 ERA)

• Odds: Red Sox -120 (favorites), Rangers EVEN (+100); Run Total: 9.5 runs

• Tickets: Starting around $12 at Fenway Park (good crowd expected for this evening game)

Game Overview: In one of the more intriguing matchups, the Rangers (18–18) visit the Red Sox (18–19) at Fenway. Boston is a slight favorite despite the disparity in starting pitcher ERAs. Tyler Mahle has been outstanding for Texas, sporting an eye-popping 1.19 ERA and showing ace-like command. Tanner Houck for Boston has struggled mightily (6.38 ERA), particularly with control and giving up the long ball. So why are the Red Sox favored? One reason could be Fenway Park’s offensive environment and Boston’s strong home offense – Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, and company can explode for runs, and perhaps oddsmakers expect Mahle to regress (he won’t sustain a sub-1.5 ERA forever). The Rangers’ offense has been inconsistent on the road, though Adolis García and Corey Seager (if healthy) are threats. The total is a high 9.5, reflecting the chance that Boston’s bats do damage or that Houck’s struggles continue, or both. This could end up being a high-scoring affair unless Mahle truly shuts Boston down.

Prediction & Best Bet: There’s value on the Rangers at EVEN money (+100). Texas has the superior starting pitcher on the mound; if Mahle continues anywhere near his current form, he can quiet the Red Sox lineup for 6+ innings. Meanwhile, the Rangers should be able to score on Houck – who hasn’t shown he can get through a lineup cleanly. We’ll call for an Rangers upset win, 6–4, on the road. That would cover the underdog moneyline and also come under the total (9.5) if Mahle’s pitching dictates the pace. However, given the bullpens and Fenway’s tendencies, we are staying away from the run total and focusing on the side. Texas +1.5 runline is another safe route (it gives a cushion in case of a one-run game), but the odds there will be heavily juiced since the spread is small. We prefer the straight Rangers moneylineas the best bet in this game.

Top Player Prop: Adolis García Over 0.5 Home Runs (to hit a HR). Fenway is kind to right-handed power when they pull the ball, and García has as much pull power as anyone. Facing a struggling Houck, he could get a pitch to drive. This is a higher-risk prop, but the payout is big and the matchup is favorable for Adolis to go deep.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 PM ET, Steinbrenner Field – Tampa)

• Probable Pitchers: Phillies: Cristopher Sánchez (LHP, 3–1, 3.45 ERA) vs. Rays: Shane Baz (RHP, 3–1, 3.86 ERA)

• Odds: Phillies -135 (favorites), Rays +115; Run Total: 8.5 runs

• Tickets: Starting around $7–$9 at George M. Steinbrenner Field (Rays’ temporary home game in Tampa)

Game Overview: Another unusual venue alert: the Rays are playing this series at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa (the Yankees’ spring training park) rather than Tropicana Field. The Phillies (20–15) have been hot, and they come in as favorites against the Rays (16–19) despite Tampa nominally being the home team. Shane Baz takes the mound for the Rays, a young flamethrower with a decent start to the year (3.86 ERA, 3–1 record). He’ll face a Phillies lineup loaded with talent – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber – which has started to produce consistently. Philadelphia counters with lefty Cristopher Sánchez, who has been a pleasant surprise at 3.45 ERA. Tampa Bay’s offense hasn’t been as fearsome as in years past; they’ve been around league average, though Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco are always threats. The neutral site could slightly favor hitters (Steinbrenner Field is smaller than the Trop and unfamiliar to pitchers). The total is set at 8.5, indicating a balanced expectation for scoring. This game might come down to bullpen execution, where the Phillies have the edge with closer José Alvarado in great form.

Prediction & Best Bet: We like the Phillies -135 moneyline to continue their winning ways. Philadelphia’s offense is deeper and more trustworthy right now than Tampa’s. Plus, the Rays are in a bit of flux playing away from their normal home, which could disrupt routine. Baz is talented but can struggle with command at times; the Phillies’ patient hitters will make him work. On the flip side, Sánchez being a lefty could neutralize some of Tampa’s top bats (Arozarena and Franco both hit lefties fine, but others in the lineup do not). Our call is Phillies 5, Rays 4, in a close one. The best bet is Philly to win, but also consider Over 8.5 runs if you expect one of these starters to falter early due to the odd conditions – a couple of big innings could push the score over. Ultimately, the Phillies’ momentum and lineup give them the nod for the betting pick.

Top Player Prop: Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases. Turner’s speed and gap power are a great fit for Steinbrenner Field, where a line drive can easily turn into a double. He’s also a threat to bunt for a hit. Two total bases could be achieved with a single and a steal or a lone extra-base hit, both of which are within Turner’s skillset.

San Diego Padres vs. New York Yankees (7:05 PM ET, Yankee Stadium)

• Probable Pitchers: Padres: Dylan Cease (RHP, 1–2, 5.61 ERA) vs. Yankees: Max Fried (LHP, 6–0, 1.01 ERA)

• Odds: Yankees -180 (favorites), Padres +150; Run Total: 7.5 runs (low)

• Tickets: Starting around $7 at Yankee Stadium (big-name matchup drawing interest, though tickets available)

Game Overview: This interleague clash is marquee-worthy. The Yankees (20–16) host the Padres (23–12) in a game featuring star power on both sides. New York’s ace Max Fried has been virtually untouchable, sporting a minuscule 1.01 ERA and an unblemished 6–0 record – he’s quickly becoming an early Cy Young frontrunner. The Padres counter with Dylan Cease, a high-octane arm who was a Cy Young contender in the AL last year with Chicago, but who has yet to find his groove in San Diego (5.61 ERA). The Bronx Bombers have been getting just enough offense lately, with Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Gleyber Torres providing pop. The Padres’ lineup is as star-studded as any, featuring Manny Machado, Juan Soto, and Xander Bogaerts, but they have to contend with a tough lefty in Fried. The Yankees are significant -180 favorites due to Fried’s dominance and Cease’s struggles. The run total is only 7.5, indicating an expected pitcher’s duel. However, if Cease pitches to his potential, this could indeed be a tight, low-scoring game.

Prediction & Best Bet: This game sets up well for an Under 7.5 runs play. With Max Fried dealing and a shaky Dylan Cease potentially rising to the occasion under the big lights, we might see a classic 3–2 type of ballgame. The Yankees should win – Fried has given no reason to bet against him – but the value on a -180 moneyline is not great. Instead, Under 7.5 is our best bet, as both teams could be held in check (the Yankees have struggled at times against quality pitching, and Fried can silence the Padres’ bats). If one insists on a side, Yankees -1.5 runline (+120) offers a plus payout and could hit if New York scrapes a few runs and Fried goes deep into the game. Yet, our confidence lies in a pitching showcase. We’ll say Yankees win 4–2, barely covering the runline and keeping the total under. Watch the first few innings: if Cease is wild and giving up runs, the in-game over might be a play, but pre-game we stick with the under.

Top Player Prop: Max Fried Over 6.5 Strikeouts. Fried isn’t known as a pure strikeout artist, but he’s been so dominant that he’s racking up Ks by pitching deep. The Padres are patient but can be punched out by elite pitching (they haven’t seen much of Fried). Look for Fried to fan 7 or more as he tries to go 7+ innings once again.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves (7:15 PM ET, Truist Park)

• Probable Pitchers: Reds: Hunter Greene (RHP, 4–2, 2.53 ERA) vs. Braves: Grant Holmes (RHP, 2–2, 4.24 ERA)

• Odds: Braves -120 (favorites), Reds +100 (even odds); Run Total: 8.0 runs (approx.)

• Tickets: Starting around $5 at Truist Park (plenty of affordable seats on weeknight)

Game Overview: The Braves and Reds meet in Atlanta in what could be a sneaky-good matchup. Atlanta (17–18) hasn’t hit its stride yet this season, while Cincinnati (18–19) is hovering around .500 as well. The Braves are slight favorites at home, largely due to their potent lineup and home park advantage. Hunter Greene goes for Cincinnati, and he’s the type of pitcher who can dominate any lineup – his triple-digit fastball and improving command have yielded a 2.53 ERA and lots of strikeouts. Atlanta will counter with Grant Holmes, a young righty who has been serviceable (4.24 ERA). On paper, the Reds have the starting pitching edge, but the Braves’ offense (Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley) on home turf is the equalizer. The run total around 8 suggests a moderate score; if Greene is on, he could keep it lower, but if he makes mistakes, the Braves can certainly make him pay with the long ball. Both teams’ bullpens have been middle-of-the-pack, which could make the late innings interesting if it’s close.

Prediction & Best Bet: This one has upset potential. Reds at even money (+100) is a worthwhile pick given Hunter Greene’s ability to miss bats and shut down even elite hitters. Cincinnati’s offense is not as scary as Atlanta’s, but they have some scrappy players (Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson) who can manufacture runs. If Greene can out-duel Holmes, the Reds can steal this game 4–3 or 3–2. Our best bet is Reds moneyline to capitalize on the value of Greene’s dominance. An alternative play is Reds +1.5 runline (likely around -170), if you want a cushion – Greene should at least keep it close even if they fall short. Braves bettors might prefer the first five innings moneyline on Atlanta, banking on their bats to get to Greene early before he settles, but we’re siding with the electric arm in this one. It’s a bold call, but Cincinnati has been pesky. Expect a tight game; the Under 8 runs is also in play given both starters’ potential, but we’ll stick with the Reds as a live underdog.

Top Player Prop: Hunter Greene Over 7.5 Strikeouts. The Braves are a powerful lineup but do strike out, especially against high-velocity pitching. Greene regularly hits double-digit K’s in his best outings – even if he gives up a couple of runs, he should pile up strikeouts along the way.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins (7:40 PM ET, Target Field)

• Probable Pitchers: Orioles: Charlie Morton (RHP, 0–6, 9.76 ERA) vs. Twins: Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP, 2–2, 4.03 ERA)

• Odds: Twins -150 (favorites), Orioles +130; Run Total: 9.5 runs

• Tickets: Starting around $3 at Target Field (bargain pricing to boost attendance)

Game Overview: The Twins (16–20) host the Orioles (13–21) in a matchup that, on paper, heavily favors Minnesota. Baltimore has had a rough start to the season, and their veteran starter Charlie Morton has shockingly struggled (0–6 record, 9.76 ERA). Morton appears to be a shell of his former self at the moment, possibly dealing with decline or an injury that hasn’t been disclosed. The Twins send young Simeon Woods Richardson, who’s been solid in his outings and gives Minnesota a dependable chance to win. Minnesota’s lineup isn’t overpowering, but guys like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton can certainly feast on struggling pitching – this could be a “get-right” game for the Twins’ bats. The Orioles offense has been inconsistent; they have some pop with Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle, but Target Field is a pitcher-friendly park and the Twins’ pitching staff has been decent. At -150, the Twins are favored for good reason. The high total of 9.5 is mostly because of Morton’s ERA – if he’s pitching, oddsmakers expect the Twins to put up a big number.

Prediction & Best Bet: This is a spot to back the home favorite on the runline. Twins -1.5 (+130) is a great value, considering they just need to win by 2 and they’re facing a pitcher who’s been getting hit hard all year. We predict Twins win 7–4, with Minnesota jumping out early and never looking back. If Morton’s woes continue, the Orioles will likely be in a hole by the middle innings. Even if Baltimore finds some offense of their own, Woods Richardson should limit damage enough for a multi-run win. The Twins’ bullpen is also stronger than Baltimore’s, which helps protect a lead. The over 9.5 is a bit high; it could hit if Baltimore contributes a few runs, but our confidence is higher in Minnesota’s side. Best bet: Twins -1.5 runline to capitalize on Morton’s struggles and the Twins’ advantage. If you prefer less risk, Twins moneyline in a parlay or as a straight bet is fine, but the -150 price is not too steep on its own either for those who just want to bet the win.

Top Player Prop: Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run. Buxton’s power at home against a veteran like Morton who has been leaving pitches over the plate is a recipe for a long ball. It’s always an aggressive prop bet with Buxton given his streakiness, but the matchup is prime for a deep shot to the left-field seats.

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (7:40 PM ET, Kauffman Stadium)

• Probable Pitchers: White Sox: Jonathan Cannon (RHP, 2–3, 4.26 ERA) vs. Royals: Michael Wacha (RHP, 1–4, 3.52 ERA)

• Odds: Royals -225 (favorites), White Sox +185; Run Total: 8.5 runs

• Tickets: Starting around $4 at Kauffman Stadium (low price for this divisional matchup)

Game Overview: The Royals have been one of the early surprises at 21–16, while the White Sox have the league’s worst record at 10–26. This AL Central contest features a lopsided moneyline: Kansas City is a -225 favorite, a testament to how poorly Chicago has played on the road (7–11 away) and overall. Michael Wacha takes the hill for KC; his record is just 1–4, but with a 3.52 ERA, he’s pitched better than the record indicates. Wacha has been a steady presence and should enjoy facing a struggling White Sox lineup that has been inconsistent and prone to slumps. Chicago starts Jonathan Cannon, a rookie still finding his way. His 4.26 ERA is respectable, but he doesn’t usually pitch deep into games, and the White Sox bullpen is a trouble spot that the Royals can exploit. Offensively, the Royals have gotten contributions from Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and MJ Melendez. They’re not a juggernaut lineup, but against Chicago’s pitching they should produce. The White Sox, meanwhile, have talent (Luis Robert Jr., Tim Anderson) that hasn’t translated into runs. Kauffman Stadium’s large dimensions can suppress homers, which might hurt the White Sox more than the Royals (Kansas City often manufactures runs with singles and steals). The total at 8.5 suggests a moderate game; if the Royals get to Cannon early, we might see some scoring.

Prediction & Best Bet: Given the mismatch in form, Royals -1.5 runline (-110) is the bet. Laying -225 to win straight up is too expensive, so the runline offers a near even-money proposition. Kansas City winning by 2+ runs is quite plausible – they’ve been playing fundamentally sound baseball and should outpitch and outhit Chicago in this spot. Royals 5, White Sox 2 is our predicted outcome. Wacha’s experience will likely keep the White Sox at bay through six innings, and Kansas City’s bullpen, anchored by closer Scott Barlow, can seal the deal. Chicago has been one of the least reliable teams, so betting on them even as a big underdog isn’t appealing. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, the Under 8.5could hit if the White Sox offense remains quiet (which it often has). But our focus is on Royals -1.5 as the best bet, expecting a fairly routine win for Kansas City.

Top Player Prop: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Stolen Bases. Witt’s speed is elite, and he’s not shy about running. The White Sox have been poor at controlling the run game. If Witt reaches base, look for him to take off. This prop usually offers a nice plus-odds payout and is worth a sprinkle given the matchup.

Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies (Postponed – Coors Field)

(This game was postponed due to inclement weather and rescheduled for May 8. No betting lines or action on May 7.)

Even though this Tigers-Rockies game was on the original schedule, it won’t be played on May 7. Bettors should ignore any previously listed odds for this matchup and focus on the rescheduled date. Both teams get a rest day here, which could affect their performances in games later in the week.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels (9:38 PM ET, Angel Stadium)

• Probable Pitchers: Blue Jays: José Berríos (RHP, 1–1, 3.98 ERA) vs. Angels: Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, 0–4, 4.21 ERA)

• Odds: Blue Jays -120 (favorites), Angels EVEN (+100); Run Total: 8.5 runs

• Tickets: Starting around $3 at Angel Stadium (weeknight West Coast game with low entry price)

Game Overview: The final game of the evening features the Blue Jays (16–19) visiting the Angels (14–20) in Anaheim. Toronto is a slight favorite on the road, as they send José Berríos to the mound. Berríos has been decent in the early going, rebounding from a tough 2024 season with an ERA just under 4.00. The Angels turn to Yusei Kikuchi, whom they signed in the offseason. Interestingly, Kikuchi pitched for Toronto last year; now he’ll face his former team while seeking his first win in an Angels uniform. He’s 0–4 but his ERA (4.21) isn’t awful – it suggests he’s had some bad luck or low run support. Offensively, the Blue Jays have firepower with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer. However, they’ve underperformed a bit, hence their sub-.500 record. The Halos, of course, feature Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani – two of the game’s best, capable of carrying the team on any given night. The matchup to watch is how Toronto’s right-handed sluggers handle Kikuchi, a lefty who can be homer-prone. Meanwhile, Berríos must navigate Ohtani and Trout; if he can keep them in the yard, the rest of the Angels lineup hasn’t proven it can win games consistently. The -120 line for Toronto indicates a modest confidence in the Jays. The total of 8.5 looks about right for a game at pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium with two middling pitchers.

Prediction & Best Bet: We side with the Toronto Blue Jays -120 to win. The key factor is the pitching matchup – Berríos has a higher ceiling than Kikuchi and has shown better command recently. The Blue Jays also have a stronger bullpen than the Angels, which could be crucial if this game is tight late. Our projection is Blue Jays 5, Angels 4, with Toronto’s lineup doing just enough and the bullpen (led by closer Jordan Romano) shutting the door. It’s essentially a coin flip game, but the slight edge goes to Toronto’s overall roster depth. If you like plus money, the Angels at even odds aren’t a bad gamble given Trout and Ohtani can turn a game by themselves; however, Ohtani is likely just hitting, and he could be intentionally walked in key spots. We prefer the balance of the Jays. As for the over/under, Over 8.5 could hit if both lineups get to the starters – there’s a scenario where this becomes a 6–5 kind of shootout especially if the bullpens falter. But since both teams have been inconsistent offensively, we’re not making the total a best bet. Stick with Blue Jays -120in a game they need to win to keep pace in a tough AL East.

Top Player Prop: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases. Vlad Jr. has been somewhat quiet by his standards, but facing a familiar pitcher in Kikuchi could wake him up. He can cover this with one well-struck double or a couple of singles. Look for Guerrero to seize the RBI opportunities if Bichette or Springer get on base ahead of him.

Summary of Top Picks & Value Bets (May 7, 2025)

After evaluating all the games, here’s a quick rundown of the day’s best bets and value plays:

• Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-155) – The Mariners have a strong matchup advantage in the doubleheader nightcap against Oakland. Bryan Woo on the mound and a better lineup make this a solid pick despite the neutral venue.

• Minnesota Twins -1.5 Runline (+130) – Fading a struggling Charlie Morton has been profitable. The Twins should win by multiple runs at home, offering a nice plus-money return.