MLB Moneyline Picks Tonight: New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies 7/29
- Lm Tipster
- Jul 29, 2024, 4:30:49 PM
MLB Moneyline Picks Tonight: New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies 7/29
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Game Summary
The New York Yankees will face the Philadelphia Phillies in the first game of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, July 29, 2024. The game is set to start at 6:40 PM EDT. The Phillies, currently leading the NL East with a record of 65-40, will host the Yankees, who are second in the AL East with a 62-45 record.
Philadelphia has been dominant at home with a 38-18 record, and they excel when they score five or more runs, boasting a 46-6 record in such games. Conversely, the Yankees have been strong on the road, posting a 35-22 record away from Yankee Stadium. When they out-hit their opponents, they hold an impressive 49-9 record.
This matchup will be the first meeting between these two teams this season. The Phillies have been led offensively by Bryce Harper, who has 22 doubles, 24 home runs, and 67 RBIs. Trea Turner has also been productive recently, going 9-for-40 with three home runs and five RBIs over the last 10 games. For the Yankees, Aaron Judge has been a powerhouse, hitting .314 with 37 home runs and 96 RBIs. Juan Soto has been on a tear, going 15-for-42 with five doubles, a triple, four home runs, and eight RBIs in his last 10 games.
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Player Prop Odds
Giancarlo Stanton Props:
- Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-135)
- Batter Home Runs: Over 0.5 (+370)
- Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+175)
- Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+105)
- Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+170)
- Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+165)
Player Analysis
Giancarlo Stanton has been a key figure in the Yankees' lineup this season. Known for his immense power, Stanton has hit 18 home runs and driven in 45 runs over 260 at-bats. His batting average stands at .246, and he has been a consistent threat, especially in clutch situations. Over his last 10 games, he has shown flashes of his peak form, making him a valuable asset for prop bets.
Opposing Analysis
Stanton will be facing off against Zack Wheeler, one of the premier pitchers in the league. Wheeler has a stellar 10-4 record, a 2.55 ERA, and a 0.98 WHIP. He has struck out 133 batters over 123 innings, showcasing his dominance on the mound. The Phillies' bullpen has been reliable as well, adding to the challenge Stanton will face. However, Stanton has had success against elite pitchers in the past, and his power can change the game with one swing.
Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | Team | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | 10-4 | 2.55 | 133 |
| Luis Gil | NYY | 10-5 | 3.10 | 124 |
Team Previews
New York Yankees
The Yankees have been a formidable team this season, ranking 4th in batting average (.256) and 5th in runs (512). Their pitching staff has been outstanding, with a 3.43 ERA, ranking 2nd in the MLB. Defensively, they have committed 59 errors, tied for 9th in the league.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have been exceptional offensively, leading the league in runs (539) and ranking 10th in hits (895). Their pitching staff holds a 3.67 ERA, 5th best in the league. However, their defense has been a bit shaky, committing 63 errors, which is 7th most in the league.
Team Injuries
New York Yankees Injuries
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | C | 10-Day IL (quadricep) |
| Nick Burdi | RP | 60-Day IL (hip) |
| Giancarlo Stanton | OF | 10-Day IL (hamstring) |
| Anthony Rizzo | 1B | 60-Day IL (wrist) |
| Clarke Schmidt | SP | 60-Day IL (lat) |
Philadelphia Phillies Injuries
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | SP | 15-Day IL (back) |
| Luis Ortiz | RP | 60-Day IL (ankle) |
| Spencer Turnbull | SP | 15-Day IL (back) |
| Taijuan Walker | SP | 15-Day IL (index finger) |
| Dylan Covey | RP | 60-Day IL (shoulder) |
Recent Games
New York Yankees
| Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|
| vs Tampa Bay | W 6-1 | W |
| vs Tampa Bay | L 9-1 | L |
| vs Tampa Bay | L 6-4 | L |
| vs Tampa Bay | W 9-1 | W |
| vs New York | L 3-2 | L |
Philadelphia Phillies
| Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|
| @ Pittsburgh | L 8-7 | L |
| @ Pittsburgh | L 4-1 | L |
| @ Pittsburgh | W 6-0 | W |
| @ Minnesota | L 7-2 | L |
| @ Minnesota | W 3-0 | W |
Prediction
Given the prop odds for Giancarlo Stanton, the best value bet appears to be the Over 0.5 Home Runs at +370. Stanton has the power to go deep in any at-bat, and despite facing a tough opponent in Zack Wheeler, the high payoff makes this bet worth the risk. Another solid choice is Over 1.5 Total Bases at +165, as Stanton could easily reach this mark with a couple of hits or one extra-base hit.
Pick: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+370)
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