MLB Picks & Predictions for May 23, 2025 – Best Bets and Player Props for Every Game

The Friday, May 23, 2025 MLB schedule features a full slate of matchups across the league, offering value opportunities for both game picks and player props. From pitching duels at Fenway to slugfests at Coors Field, we've broken down each game with a game prediction, best bet, and top player prop to consider. Whether you're looking to back a favorite on the run line or find value in an underdog's ace, this guide has your betting card covered. Let's dive into today's MLB slate.

 

Yankees vs. Rockies

Probable Pitchers: C. Schmidt (1-1, 4.41 ERA) vs. T. Gordon (0-1, 5.68 ERA)
Location: Coors Field, Denver, CO

Best Bet: Yankees -1.5

Top Player Prop: Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases

Orioles vs. Red Sox (Game 1)

Probable Pitchers: C. Povich (1-3, 5.23 ERA) vs. B. Bello (2-1, 4.02 ERA)
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Best Bet: Red Sox ML

Top Player Prop: Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases

Cubs vs. Reds

Probable Pitchers: M. Boyd (4-2, 2.98 ERA) vs. H. Greene (4-2, 2.36 ERA)
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH

Best Bet: Under 8.5 Runs

Top Player Prop: Hunter Greene over 7.5 strikeouts

Brewers vs. Pirates

Probable Pitchers: F. Peralta (5-3, 2.59 ERA) vs. P. Skenes (3-5, 2.44 ERA)
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Best Bet: Brewers ML

Top Player Prop: Christian Yelich to hit a home run

Giants vs. Nationals

Probable Pitchers: L. Roupp (2-3, 4.11 ERA) vs. M. Gore (2-4, 3.67 ERA)
Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.

Best Bet: Under 9.0 Runs

Top Player Prop: CJ Abrams over 0.5 stolen bases

Blue Jays vs. Rays

Probable Pitchers: E. Lauer (1-0, 2.25 ERA) vs. D. Rasmussen (2-4, 2.93 ERA)
Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL

Best Bet: Under 8.0 Runs

Top Player Prop: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 total bases

Orioles vs. Red Sox (Game 2)

Probable Pitchers: Undecided vs. L. Giolito (1-1, 7.08 ERA)
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Best Bet: Over 9.5 Runs

Top Player Prop: Adley Rutschman over 1.5 total bases

Guardians vs. Tigers

Probable Pitchers: S. Cecconi (0-1, 5.40 ERA) vs. J. Jobe (4-0, 4.12 ERA)
Location: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI

Best Bet: Tigers ML

Top Player Prop: Riley Greene to hit a home run

Dodgers vs. Mets

Probable Pitchers: C. Kershaw (0-0, 11.25 ERA) vs. G. Canning (5-1, 2.47 ERA)
Location: Citi Field, New York, NY

Best Bet: Dodgers ML

Top Player Prop: Pete Alonso over 0.5 home runs

 

FAQ

Q: What do the moneyline odds like “-120” or “+110” mean?
A: Moneyline odds indicate how much you need to bet or can win on a given team. A negative number (e.g. -120) means that team is favored – you would need to bet $120 to win $100 (plus get your $120 back) on a -120 favorite. A positive number (e.g. +110) means that team is an underdog – a $100 bet would win you $110 (plus your $100 stake returned) if the underdog prevails. In short, “-” odds show the favorite and how much to risk for $100 profit, while “+” odds show the underdog and how much profit you get from a $100 bet.

Q: What is the run line in MLB betting, and how is it different from the spread in other sports?
A: The run line is baseball’s version of a point spread. It’s almost always set at 1.5 runs. If you bet a favorite on the run line (-1.5), that team must win by 2 or more runs for the bet to cash. If you bet an underdog on the run line (+1.5), that team can lose by 1 run or win the game outright and you still win the bet. The run line gives or takes away a run and a half to even out the matchup. It’s different from spreads in sports like football or basketball (where spreads can vary widely) – in MLB the standard is 1.5 because baseball games are generally decided by a couple of runs. Betting the run line can offer better odds on big favorites or a cushion on underdogs, but remember that roughly one-third of MLB games are decided by exactly one run, so those half-run margins matter a lot.

Q: How do you decide on the “best bet” for each game?
A: Our best bets are chosen by analyzing a combination of factors – pitching matchups, team form, statistical trends, and line value. We look at how each team has been performing (e.g., offensive output in recent games, bullpen reliability, home/away splits) and how the styles of the two teams contrast. For example, if two strong pitchers are facing off and both offenses are underperforming, the under (total runs) might be the best bet. If one team has a clear matchup advantage (say a significantly better starting pitcher or a lineup that’s red-hot), we might favor them on the moneyline or run line. We also consider the betting odds: a best bet should not only be likely to win but also offer reasonable value. Sometimes that means backing a slight underdog with upside or a favorite on the run line to reduce the juice. In essence, it’s a blend of on-field matchup insight and smart sports betting principles. Each game is unique, so we tailor the best bet to what we believe the most advantageous angle is for that particular matchup.