MLB Player Prop Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks - 7/28

Photo Credit: © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Pittsburgh Pirates (52-52) will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks (55-50) on Sunday, July 28th at 4:10 PM EDT at Chase Field, Phoenix. This matchup holds significant importance for both teams as they look to strengthen their standings in their respective divisions. The Pirates are currently third in the NL Central, while the Diamondbacks hold the third spot in the NL West.

In their last game, the Diamondbacks secured a 9-5 win over the Pirates, with Jake McCarthy shining with an impressive five-hit performance. Arizona has been strong at home with a 28-24 record and boasts the fifth-best team on-base percentage in MLB at .326. Meanwhile, the Pirates have a balanced 26-26 record on the road and hold a remarkable 38-4 record in games where they out-hit their opponents.

This game marks the third meeting between these teams this season. Notably, Ketel Marte leads the Diamondbacks with 45 extra-base hits, while Corbin Carroll has been productive with four home runs and 11 RBIs in the last 10 games. The Diamondbacks come into this game with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, posting a .271 batting average and a 3.74 ERA, outscoring their opponents by 20 runs. The Pirates, on the other hand, have a 6-4 record in their last 10 games with a .258 batting average and a 3.38 ERA.

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Player Prop Odds

For this game, we focus on Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The player prop odds for Keller recording a win are as follows:

• Pitcher to Record a Win: No -215, Yes +155

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Player Analysis

Mitch Keller has been a standout performer for the Pirates this season, boasting a 10-5 record with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Over 121.1 innings pitched, Keller has accumulated 108 strikeouts while allowing 119 hits. His ability to consistently perform on the mound has been a critical factor in many of the Pirates' victories.

Keller's recent form has been particularly impressive. In his last five starts, he has managed to maintain an ERA under 3.00, showcasing his capability to handle high-pressure situations effectively. His arsenal of pitches, including a fastball, slider, and curveball, has been effective against both right-handed and left-handed batters.

Opposing Analysis

Facing Keller will be the Arizona Diamondbacks' lineup, which has demonstrated a solid offensive performance this season. The Diamondbacks have a team batting average of .232, ranking 25th in MLB, but they have shown the ability to score efficiently, as indicated by their recent games.

Key hitters like Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll will be crucial in challenging Keller. Marte leads the team with a .296 batting average and 23 home runs, while Carroll has been in good form recently. The Diamondbacks' approach will likely focus on getting on base and creating scoring opportunities through small ball and timely hitting.

Pitching Probables

Player	W-L	ERA	WHIP	IP	H	K	BB	HR
M. Keller (PIT)	10-5	3.34	1.24	121.1	119	108	32	13
Y. Diaz (ARI)	1-1	5.40	1.40	15.0	17	7	4	2

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Team Previews

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have shown a balanced approach this season with notable performances in hitting, pitching, and fielding. They rank 8th in MLB with 888 hits and 3rd with 513 runs scored. Their team batting average stands at .253, placing them 8th overall.

On the pitching side, the Pirates have a team ERA of 4.49, which ranks 26th in MLB. Their relief pitching has been somewhat inconsistent, but they have managed to secure 24 saves (tied 19th). Defensively, the Pirates have committed 42 errors, ranking 30th in the league.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have relied heavily on their strong on-base percentage (.326, 5th in MLB) to create scoring opportunities. However, their overall hitting stats are less impressive, with 807 hits (26th) and 425 runs scored (23rd). Their team batting average is .232 (25th).

Pitching has been a relative strength for Arizona, with a team ERA of 3.78 ranking 11th in MLB. Their bullpen has been solid, securing 26 saves (tied 14th). Defensively, the Diamondbacks have committed 50 errors, placing them 21st in MLB.

Team Injuries

Player	Position	Injury Status
Bailey Falter	P	15-Day IL (arm)
Daulton Jefferies	P	15-Day IL (elbow)
Jared Jones	SP	15-Day IL (lat)
Ryan Borucki	P	60-Day IL (tricep)
Dauri Moreta	P	60-Day IL (elbow)
Endy Rodriguez	C	60-Day IL (elbow)
Johan Oviedo	P	60-Day IL (elbow)

Player	Position	Injury Status
Blake Walston	P	15-Day IL (elbow)
Merrill Kelly	SP	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Kyle Nelson	P	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Eduardo Rodriguez	P	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Drey Jameson	P	60-Day IL (elbow)

Recent Games

Pittsburgh Pirates

Opponent	Score	W/L
vs Philadelphia	8-7	W
vs Philadelphia	4-1	W
vs Philadelphia	0-6	L
vs St. Louis	2-1	W
vs St. Louis	1-2	L

Arizona Diamondbacks

Opponent	Score	W/L
@ Chicago	5-2	W
@ Chicago	3-0	W
@ Chicago	1-2	L
@ Kansas City	4-10	L
@ Kansas City	6-2	W

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Prediction

Considering Mitch Keller's recent form and the Pirates' balanced approach, Keller has a solid chance of recording a win against the Diamondbacks. Arizona's lineup, while capable, has struggled against strong pitching. Given Keller's consistency and the Pirates' ability to capitalize with timely hitting, the odds of Keller recording a win at +155 offer good value.

Pick: Mitch Keller to Record a Win (+155)

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