Michael Busch's MLB Props - Brewers vs Cubs 7/22

Game Summary

The Milwaukee Brewers (57-42, first in the NL Central) will face off against the Chicago Cubs (48-53, fourth in the NL Central) on Monday, July 22, 2024, at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The game is set to begin at 8:05 p.m. EDT. This matchup marks the beginning of a three-game series between the two teams. The Cubs hold a 26-23 record at home but have struggled overall this season, sitting fourth in the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Brewers have been strong both at home and on the road with a 28-25 road record and a 57-42 overall record, placing them at the top of their division.

In terms of recent performance, the Cubs are coming off a mixed bag of results with a 6-4 record in their last 10 games, boasting a .272 batting average and a stellar 2.43 ERA. They have outscored their opponents by 14 runs during this span. The Brewers, on the other hand, have a 5-5 record in their last 10 games with a .245 batting average and a 4.21 ERA, outscoring opponents by 10 runs.

Historically, the Brewers have had the upper hand against the Cubs this season, leading the season series 6-4. Both teams will be looking to gain an edge in this crucial series. Top performers for the Brewers include William Contreras, who has 11 home runs, 38 walks, and 56 RBIs with a .284 batting average. Willy Adames has also been in excellent form, going 15-for-41 with six doubles, two home runs, and 10 RBIs in the last 10 games.

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Player Prop Odds

Michael Busch's player prop odds for this game are as follows:

Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+390)

Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-190)

Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+200)

Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+100)

Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (-105)

Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+140)

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Player Analysis

Michael Busch has been one of the standout performers for the Milwaukee Brewers this season. Batting at a .267 average, he has consistently contributed to the team's offensive output. Busch has shown a knack for getting on base and creating scoring opportunities, which is reflected in his prop odds.

His recent form has been promising, and with odds heavily favoring him to get at least one hit in this game (-190), it’s clear that he is expected to make an impact. Busch's ability to hit for both power and average makes him a versatile threat, and his prop odds for RBIs (+200) and total bases (+140) present intriguing value for bettors looking to capitalize on his form.

Opposing Analysis

The Chicago Cubs will send Javier Assad to the mound, who has been relatively solid this season. Assad holds a 3.27 ERA and has struck out 79 batters in 85.1 innings pitched. However, he has struggled with control at times, which could play into Busch's hands. The Cubs' bullpen has also been inconsistent, which means that if Busch can get to Assad early, he could see some favorable matchups later in the game.

Pitching Probables

Here are the probable starting pitchers for both teams:

Player	W-L	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts
Tobias Myers (MIL)	6-3	3.12	1.12	62
Javier Assad (CHC)	4-3	3.27	1.35	79

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Team Previews

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have been a well-rounded team this season, boasting the second-ranked team on-base percentage in the NL at .332. Their pitching staff has been solid with a team ERA of 3.76, ranking 10th in the league. Offensively, while they rank 20th in hits with 784, they have managed to be efficient in scoring runs, sitting 19th in the league with 419 runs scored.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have been more potent offensively, ranking 7th in hits with 861 and 6th in runs scored with 482. They have a team batting average of .255, which ranks 4th in the league. Their pitching has been decent with an ERA of 3.81, ranking 11th in the league. However, their bullpen has been a weak link, which could be exploited by the Brewers.

Team Injuries

Player	Position	Injury	Injury Status
Enoli Paredes	RP	Forearm	Expected to be out until at least Jul 31

Player	Position	Injury	Injury Status
Cody Bellinger	CF	Finger	Expected to be out until at least Jul 26

Recent Games

Milwaukee Brewers

Opponent	Score	W/L
@ Minnesota	8-4 (W)	W
@ Minnesota	8-7 (W)	W
vs Miami	8:10 PM	Upcoming
vs Miami	7:10 PM	Upcoming
vs Miami	2:10 PM	Upcoming

Chicago Cubs

Opponent	Score	W/L
vs Arizona	5-2 (L)	L
vs Arizona	3-0 (L)	L
vs Arizona	2-1 (W)	W
vs Milwaukee	8:05 PM	Upcoming
vs Milwaukee	8:05 PM	Upcoming

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Prediction

Given Michael Busch's recent form and the Cubs' inconsistent bullpen, the best prop bet is likely to be Busch over 0.5 total bases at +140. He has been reliable in getting on base, and the matchup against Assad and the Cubs' bullpen should provide him ample opportunities to deliver.

Pick: Over 0.5 total bases (+140)

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