Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 5 (10/5) MLB

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 5 (10/5) MLB

 

Odds

Time 4:10 p.m. EST
Braves money line -210
Braves run line -1.5 (-130)
Marlins money line +170
Marlins run line +1.5 (+110)
Over / under 8.5

 

Key stats

  Atlanta Braves  Miami Marlins
Record 101-60 68-93
Road / home record 46-34 33-47
Last 10 record 7-3 6-4
Streak W1 L1
Over / under record 79-73-8 69-82-9
Runs / game 4.89 3.58
Runs allowed / game 3.72 4.18

 

Preview

The Miami Marlins and the Atlanta Braves will play the 3rd game series and the final of the regular season at the loanDepot park on Wednesday. The Braves bounced back and took the win 2-1 to take their fifth straight NL East title and finish the first leg of a trek they hope leads them to another crown.

 

Atlanta Braves

The Braves get here with a 101-60 record and have won 7 their last 10 games. The team is averaging 4.89 runs per game. They're batting for .254 AVG, 778 runs scored in 1367 hits and 241 home runs, ranking #3 in offense in the league behind the NY Yankees. Austin Riley is leading the team with 38 home runs and 93 RBI while Dansby Swanson has the better batting average with .277. 

Defensively they are allowing 3.72 runs per game and rank #4 in the league. Max Fried leads the pitching staff with a 2.48 ERA, 170 strikeouts and 14 wins recorded with the Braves. 

Probable Pitcher:  Max Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA)

Fried will be on the mound in the 3rd game of the series for the Braves. He allowed four hits and one run while striking out three over five innings before exiting. Fried had only thrown 71 pitches, but he was seen vomiting into a trash can in the dugout in between innings, so it seems likely he caught a stomach bug. He lines up to pitch in the final game of the regular season Wednesday in Miami if he feels up to it. He has a record of 3-3 with an ERA of 4.94 and 61 strikeouts in 12 appearances against the Marlins in his career

Miami Marlins

The Marlins get here with a 68-93 record and have won 4 of their last 7 games. The team is averaging 3.58 runs per game. They're batting for .229 AVG, have 569 runs scored in 1215 hits and 140 home runs, ranking #28 in offense in the league behind the Washington Nationals. Jesus Aguilar leads with 15 home runs, 49 RBI. Garret Cooper is batting for an average of .274. 

Defensively they are allowing 4.18 runs per game and rank #12 in the league. Sandy Alcantara is leading the team with a 2.28 ERA, 207 strikeouts and 14 wins recorded.

Probable Pitcher:  Elieser Hernandez (3-6, 6.33 ERA)

Hernandez will be on the mound in the 2nd game of the series for the Marlins. The right-hander was called up from Triple-A Jacksonville on Monday and will start the final game of the season for Miami. He has a 1-4 record with an ERA of 3.80 and 48 strikeouts in 15 appearances against the Braves in his career.

 

BETTING TRENDS

Atlanta are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games against Miami.

Atlanta are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road.

Atlanta are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against Miami.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games.

Miami are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home.

 

Prediction

The Braves needed only 2 runs in the game to beat the Marlins and for this game they'll send Max Fried to the mound who has been insane this season and has dominated the Marlins in his career. The Marlins will send Elieser Hernandez to the mound who has been pitching in the minors with not too good results. The Braves will probably rest some players for this game but with this pitching matchup I don't see how the Marlins can steal the win. Take the Braves.

PICK: Braves -1.5 (-130) 

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