Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 7 (9/7): MLB

Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 7 (9/7): MLB

Credit: photo by Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 6:40 p.m. EST
Mets money line -166
Mets run line -1.5 (+100)
Marlins money line +143
Marlins run line +1.5 (-120)
Over / under 7.5 (-115)

 

Key stats
  Mets Marlins
Record 69-69 57-80
Road / home record 28-42 36-33
Last 10 record 7-3 6-4
Streak 1L 1L
Over / under record 59-72-7 60-69-8
Runs / game 3.90 3.97
Runs allowed / game 3.99 4.21

 

Preview

Tonight the Mets travel to Miami for their 3 game series against the Marlins.  The Mets enter this one on a bit of a roll after playing some less than stellar teams.  They currently sit 4 games back in the NL East and 4.5 games back of a wildcard spot.  The Marlins on the other hand are firmly out of the playoffs and are getting some looks at their younger prospects.  The Mets will look to continue to pick up some wins against these weaker teams to further their chances of making the playoffs.  

Pitching matchup

Mets

Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 6.59 ERA) will take the bump tonight and face off against the Marlins in Miami. He enter's this game with a 1.22 WHIP and 3.84 XFIP.  He carries a 23.1% strikeout rate paired with a nice 4.1% walk rate this year.  This will be the 3rd time Carrasco will face off with this Marlins team, going 9.2 innings, with 10 strikeouts, and allowing 5 ER's in those previous starts.  He takes on a Marlins team that has a projected lineup that boasts a bad 24.7% strikeout rate.  Carrasco has been giving up some extra base hits and homerun's but his ability to command his pitches has limited baserunners during those mishaps.  He has a smaller sample coming into this game but looks to have another good outting against a weak Marlins offense. 

Marlins

Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.23 ERA) will be on the mound for the Marlins tonight. He enters this game with a 1.35 WHIP and 5.23 XFIP.  He carries a 10% strikeout rate accompanied by a 7.5% walk rate.  The young right hander has made 2 starts coming into this one, going 10.1 innings, 4 K's, 3 Hr's, and allowing a total of 6 ER's.  His last start was against this same Mets team who got to him to a tune of 7 hits and 3 Er's in 4 innings of ball. The strikeout numbers should rise once Cabrera starts to find his footing and gets a little more comfortable.  He will look to have a better start this time around against the Mets. 

Prediction

This game looks like it could be a low scoring affair, depending on what we get from Cabrera.  I'll lean on the side of the Mets bats in this one until Cabrera gets some more innings under his belt.  Carrasco should have no problem against this offense in a hitter friendly park.  

PICK: Mets -1.5 (+100)

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