Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 2 (9/2): MLB

Credit: photo by Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

 

Odds

Time	7:10 p.m. EST
Marlins money line	+145
Marlins run line	+1.5 (-179)
Mets money line	-196
Mets run line	-1.5 (+128)
Over / under	6.5 (-135)

 

Key stats

	Marlins	Mets
Record	55-78	65-67
Road / home record	21-46	40-27
Last 10 record	4-6	4-6
Streak	1L	3W
Over / under record	58-67-8	56-70-6
Runs / game	3.95	3.77
Runs allowed / game	4.24	3.95

 

Preview

Today the Miami Marlins are at Citi Field to take on the New York Mets.  The Mets are 5 games back in the NL East fighting for a playoff spot, while the Miami Marlins are taking a look at their younger talent.  The Mets bats have underperformed all year and that trend will have to change if they want to make a run to get into the postseason. 

Pitching matchup

Marlins

Zach Thompson (2-6, 3.16 ERA) will be on the mound today for the Miami Marlins. He comes into this game with a 1.12 WHIP and 4.88 XFIP. He carries a 18.6% strikeout rate followed by a 7.9% walk rate.  Thompson has been a decent pitcher for the Marlins this year he sports a fastball and cutter mix as his top 2 go to pitches, both are hit well by this Mets team.  He's been able to contain right handed hitters for the most part this season, allowing power and some quality contact to opposite handed hitters. 

Mets

Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 6.94 ERA) will toe the rubber for the New York Mets.  He comes into this game with little sample size this year, in 23.1 innings he has a 1.29 WHIP and 3.74 XFIP. In the limited sample this year he sports a 23% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate. Carrasco got his season started late this year coming off injury. He has a bloated ERA when you compare it to his XFIP.  He is coming off his best start of the season where he held the San Francisco Giants in check, going 7 innings while allowing 2 ER's on 3 hits while striking out 5.  Carrasco has the stuff to be good, look for him to continue to trend back to form against a weak and strikeout heavy Marlins team.     

Prediction

Both of these offenses have struggled mightily this year, averaging less than 4 runs per game.  The Mets have atleast been able to get the job done at home this year.  I'll ride with the better starting pitcher and the better offense in this one in Mets.

PICK: Mets -1.5 (+128)

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