Game Summary

The Seattle Mariners (63-61) are set to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (58-64) on August 18, 2024, at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. This matchup comes at a crucial time for the Mariners, who are currently on a five-game losing streak. Despite their recent struggles, Seattle remains competitive in the AL West, where they sit in second place. The Mariners have demonstrated a strong record when scoring five or more runs, boasting a 39-4 record in such scenarios. However, they have found it challenging to generate offensive production recently, with a batting average of just .182 over their last ten games.

Meanwhile, the Pirates find themselves in fifth place in the NL Central and have a mixed performance lately, winning only 2 of their last 10 games. Their overall record of 58-64 reflects a 29-31 record at home. Historically, Pittsburgh has been more successful when they secure at least eight hits in a game, holding a 41-23 record in those instances. With both teams eager to turn their fortunes around, this contest presents an intriguing matchup.

The Mariners will send George Kirby (8-9, 3.42 ERA) to the mound against the Pirates' Jake Woodford (0-4, 5.87 ERA). Kirby has been a consistent performer for Seattle, ranking 23rd in ERA and showing a solid strikeout rate with 143 strikeouts in just over 144 innings pitched. In contrast, Woodford has struggled to find his footing, and his high ERA might give the Mariners an opportunity to capitalize on his weaknesses.

As the teams meet for the third time this season, it’s essential to analyze their past matchups. The Mariners have struggled against left-handed pitchers, which could be a concern against Woodford. Additionally, the Pirates are missing key players due to injuries, including Andrew McCutchen and several others on the IL. Both teams will need to dig deep to secure a win, especially the Mariners, who are looking to snap their losing streak.

Player Prop Odds

- Ji Hwan Bae Stolen Bases: Over 0.5 (+280)
- Ji Hwan Bae Stolen Bases: Under 0.5 (-425)

Player Analysis

Ji Hwan Bae has emerged as a valuable contributor for the Pirates this season. As a versatile player, he has shown the ability to get on base and create opportunities for his teammates. Bae has a solid batting average of .265 and has demonstrated speed on the base paths, making him a potential threat for stolen bases. In 2024, he has recorded a total of 20 stolen bases, showcasing his ability to read pitchers and take advantage of opportunities.

Over the last month, Bae has been particularly aggressive on the bases, attempting to steal regularly and achieving a success rate of over 75%. His recent performance indicates that he is finding his rhythm, and the Pirates will likely rely on his speed to generate runs in this crucial game against the Mariners.

Opposing Analysis

Against the Mariners, Bae will face George Kirby, who is known for his strong strikeout ability. Kirby's high strikeout rate could limit Bae's opportunities to steal bases if he struggles to get on base. However, if Bae can find a way to reach first, Kirby has shown some vulnerability to the running game, allowing a few stolen bases this season. The Mariners' catchers have also had mixed success in throwing out baserunners, which could work in Bae's favor if he gets on base.

Prop Analysis

The odds for Bae's stolen bases prop suggest that bookmakers view the success of his steal as a possibility but also recognize the risk involved. The favorable +280 odds on the over suggest that Bae has a decent chance of successfully stealing a base against a Mariners team that is not as aggressive defensively. The -425 odds on the under indicate that the public may lean towards the belief that he won't attempt a steal or won't be successful if he does.

Evaluating Bae's recent performances, he has shown an uptick in his stolen base attempts, especially against teams with less effective pitchers like Woodford. If he can reach first base safely, it would not be surprising to see him take a calculated risk against the Mariners' catcher, who may be more vulnerable to base theft.

Starting Pitching Summary - Mariners

George Kirby, the Mariners' starting pitcher, has had a solid season despite his record not reflecting it. With an ERA of 3.42, he ranks among the better pitchers in the league. Kirby's ability to strike out batters, as evidenced by his 143 strikeouts, provides Seattle with a strong chance to control the game. He has shown good command, with a WHIP of 1.08, making him difficult to hit against. If Kirby can establish his fastball and mix in his secondary pitches effectively, it could limit the Pirates' offensive production.

Starting Pitching Summary - Pirates

Jake Woodford has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.87 and a record of 0-4. His inability to go deep into games has put the Pirates' bullpen in tough spots. With a WHIP of 1.26, Woodford has allowed too many baserunners, which could be a significant factor in this matchup. If he continues to allow hits and walks, it will likely lead to scoring opportunities for the Mariners, which could further complicate the game for the Pirates.

Bullpen Summary - Mariners

The Mariners' bullpen has shown resilience this season, sporting a 3.94 ERA overall. However, the effectiveness of their relievers can vary significantly. They have some reliable arms at the back end, including closer Paul Sewald, who has been effective in high-leverage situations. If Kirby can go deep into the game, the bullpen's performance will be critical, especially if the game remains close.

Bullpen Summary - Pirates

The Pirates' bullpen has a combined ERA of 4.50 this season, which is slightly above average. However, they have had their struggles in late-game situations, which can be a concern if Woodford cannot provide length. The effectiveness of their bullpen will be crucial, especially if the game is tightly contested.

Team Previews

The Seattle Mariners have a batting average of .235, ranking them 23rd in the league. They have shown flashes of power but have struggled to string together hits consistently. Their pitching staff, led by Kirby, has been solid, but offensively, they need to find ways to generate runs consistently.

As for the Pittsburgh Pirates, their .215 batting average is the worst in the league, and they have struggled to score runs. Despite their struggles, they have a few standout performers, including Bryan Reynolds and Ji Hwan Bae, who can create offensive opportunities. The Pirates will need to capitalize on any mistakes made by the Mariners' pitchers to win this game.

Team Injuries

Pittsburgh Pirates Injuries:

• Andrew McCutchen: RF, 10-Day IL (knee)
• Colin Holderman: RP, 15-Day IL (undisclosed)
• Josh Palacios: RF, 10-Day IL (hamstring)
• Daulton Jefferies: SP, 60-Day IL (elbow)
• Johan Oviedo: SP, 60-Day IL (elbow)

• Gregory Santos: RP, 15-Day IL (biceps)
• J.P. Crawford: SS, 10-Day IL (hand)
• Sam Haggerty: OF, 60-Day IL (achilles)

Recent Games

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