Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 11 (10/11): MLB

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 11 (10/11): MLB

 

Odds

Time 3:37 p.m. EST
Mariners money line +175
Mariners run line +1.5 (-120)
Astros money line -215
Astros run line -1.5 (+100)
Over / under 6.5

 

Key stats

  Seattle Mariners  Houston Astros
Record 92-72 106-56
Road / home record 46-37 55-26
Last 10 record 8-2 7-3
Streak W5 W2
Over / under record 76-80-8 60-91-11
Runs / game 4.29 4.55
Runs allowed / game 3.85 3.23

 

Preview

The Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners will play the 1st game of the American League Divisional Series at the Minute Maid Park on Tuesday. The Mariners beat the Blue Jays 2-0 in Toronto but are 6-12 vs Astros this season. 

 

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners get here with a 92-72 record and have won their last 5 games. The team is averaging 4.29 runs per game. They're batting for .230 AVG, 690 runs scored in 1237 hits and 197 home runs, ranking #17 in offense in the league, behind the Tampa Bay Rays. Eugenio Suarez leads with 87 RBI and 31 home runs and batting for .229 avg. Ty France has the best batting average with .278.

Defensively are allowing 3.85 runs per game, ranking #7 in the league. Logan Gilbert leads the team with 13 wins and pitching for a 3.20 ERA and 174 strikeouts.

Probable Pitcher:

Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA) will be on the mound for the Mariners in the 1st game of the series. Gilbert allowed a run on three hits and two walks while striking out four over eight innings in a no-decision versus the Athletics on Friday. He has a 2-2 record with an ERA of 4.15 and 36 strikeouts in 7 appearances against the Astros in his career.

Houston Astros

The Astros get here with a 106-56 record and have won 4 of their last 5 games. They're averaging 4.55 runs and batting for .246 AVG, 737 runs scored in 1341 hits and 214 home runs, ranking #8 in offense in the league behind the Seattle Mariners. Yordan Alvarez leads the team batting for .304 avg with 37 home runs and 97 RBI. 

Defensively they are allowing 3.23 runs per game and ranking #2 in the league. Justin Verlander leads the pitching staff with a 1.75 ERA, 185 strikeouts and 18 wins recorded for the Astros.

Probable Pitcher: Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA)

Verlander will be on the mound in the 1st game of the series for the Astros. Verlander recovered from Tommy John surgery to post a 1.75 ERA in 28 starts this season but he has struggled in postseason with a 4.27 ERA in the last 9 playoffs games. He has a 21-10 record with an ERA of 3.09 and 258 strikeouts in 37 appearances against the Mariners in his career.

 

BETTING TRENDS

Seattle are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.

Seattle are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against Houston.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road.

Seattle are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games when playing on the road against Houston.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games.

Houston are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.

Houston are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games at home.

 

Prediction

The Mariners earned the spot to play in the Divisional Series after beating the Blue Jays 2-0 but they have been dominated by the Astros this season with a 6-12 record against them. Logan Gilbert will start for the Mariners who has been solid this season and has done a decent job vs Astros in his career. The Astros have one of the best records at home in the league and will send their ace Justin Verlander to start this game who's having an insane year and will most likely win the Cy young award in the American League. Expect a low scoring game as both starters will dominate on the mound. Take the under.

PICK: Under 6.5 (-110)

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