Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 28 (10/28): MLB

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 28 (10/28): MLB

Odds

Time 8:03 p.m. EST
Phillies money line +141
Phillies run line +1.5 (-160)
Astros money line -170
Astros run line -1.5 (+135)
Over / under 6.5

 

Key stats

  Philadelphia Phillies  Houston Astros
Record 96-77 113-56
Road / home record 44-43 59-26
Last 10 record 8-2 9-1
Streak W3 W9
Over / under record 88-79-6 62-96-11
Runs / game 4.61 4.36
Runs allowed / game 4.20 4.05

 

Preview

The Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies will meet to play the Game 1 of the World Series at the Minute Maid Park on Friday. The Phillies beat the Padres in 5 games to win the National League Championship and the Astros swept the Yankees to win the American League Championship. These teams faced each other in a 3-game series at Houston and the Astros beat the Phillies in 2 of 3 games.

 

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies get to this game with a 96-77 record and have won 8 of their last 10 games. The team is averaging 4.61 runs per game. They're batting for .253 AVG, 747 runs scored in 1392 hits and 205 home runs, ranking #7 in offense in the league behind the NY Mets. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 46 home runs and 94 RBI while Alec Bohm is batting for .281 avg.

Defensively they are allowing 4.20 runs per game and rank #13 in the league. Zack Wheeler leads the team with a 2.82 ERA, 163 strikeouts and 12 wins recorded for the Phillies.

Probable Pitcher:  Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA)

Nola will be on the mound in the 1st game of the series for the Phillies. Nola took the loss Wednesday afternoon after 4.2 innings of work, surrendering six runs on seven hits and zero walks while striking out six during the 8-5 defeat to the Padres in Game 2 of the NLCS. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.00 and 19 strikeouts in 2 appearances versus the Astros in his career.

Houston Astros

The Astros get here with a 112-56 record and have won 9 of their last 10 games. They're averaging 4.55 runs and batting for .246 AVG, 737 runs scored in 1341 hits and 214 home runs, ranking #8 in offense in the league behind the Seattle Mariners. Yordan Alvarez leads the team batting for .304 avg with 37 home runs and 97 RBI. 

Defensively they are allowing 3.23 runs per game and ranking #2 in the league. Justin Verlander leads the pitching staff with a 1.75 ERA, 185 strikeouts and 18 wins recorded for the Astros.

Probable Pitcher:  Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA)

Verlander will be on the mound in the 1st game of the series for the Astros. Verlander earned the win during Game 1 of the ALCS on Wednesday, allowing one run on three hits and one walk while striking out 11 over six innings in the 4-2 victory over the Yankees. He has a 3-0 record with an ERA of 1.42 and 26 strikeouts in 3 appearances against the Phillies in his career.

 

BETTING TRENDS

Philadelphia are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.

Philadelphia are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against Houston.

Philadelphia are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road.

Philadelphia are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games.

Houston are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games.

Houston are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at home.

 

Prediction

The Phillies are the bug surprise on this series after beating the Braves in 4 and the Padres in 5 games to win the National Championship and will send their best pitcher for Game 1. Aaron Nola struggled in his last start in the series vs Padres allowing 6 runs but he had a great season and dominated the Astros holding them to zero runs across 6 innings pitched as the Phillies won 3-0 the game. The Astros are looking unstoppable and swept the Yankees in the American League Championship series. Justin Verlander will get the ball in Game 1 who has been insane lately and has dominated the Phillies in his career. The Phillies are great but they're only 44-43 on the road while the Astros have been unbeatable at home. Should be a close game but I give the Astros the edge to win this game.

PICK: Astros ML (-170)

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