Free MLB Player Props Picks: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

- Mr Wager
- Jul 27, 2024, 9:03:37 AM
Free MLB Player Props Picks: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
Photo Credit: © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Game Summary
The Atlanta Braves will face off against the New York Mets on Saturday at Citi Field in Queens, New York. The game is scheduled to start at 4:10 p.m. EDT. The Braves are currently holding a 54-48 record, placing them third in the NL East, while the Mets are slightly ahead with a 55-48 record, sitting second in the division. This matchup is particularly intriguing as both teams are neck-and-neck in the standings, making every game crucial for their playoff aspirations.
The Braves have been struggling recently, losing their last six games and will be desperate to reverse their fortunes. Their performance on the road has been shaky with a 24-27 record. However, when the Braves out-hit their opponents, they have a remarkable 40-8 record, showing that their offense can be explosive when firing on all cylinders.
The Mets, on the other hand, have a solid home record of 28-26 and have been impressive when scoring five or more runs, boasting a 38-15 record in such games. They are currently leading the season series against the Braves 5-3. The Mets come into this game with a better recent form, having won seven of their last ten games, while the Braves have only managed to win three in the same span.
Both teams have been dealing with injuries to key players. The Braves are without stars like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies, while the Mets have Kodai Senga and Harrison Bader listed as day-to-day.
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Player Prop Odds
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Here are the player prop odds for Francisco Alvarez:
- Batter Doubles (0.5): Over +390
- Batter Hits (0.5): Over -175
- Batter RBIs (0.5): Over +195
- Batter Runs Scored (0.5): Over -105
- Batter Singles (0.5): Over +110
- Batter Total Bases (1.5): Over +145
Player Analysis
Francisco Alvarez has been a key contributor to the Mets' offense this season. Although he is still relatively young, his mature approach at the plate and ability to come through in clutch situations have been impressive. Alvarez has shown power, hitting several home runs, and his ability to get on base has been a catalyst for the Mets' success.
In his recent performances, Alvarez has been making consistent contact, which is reflected in his prop bet odds. His ability to hit doubles and home runs makes him a significant threat to opposing pitchers. Given his current form, the prop bet for Alvarez to get over 0.5 hits at -175 seems like a strong bet. Additionally, considering his ability to drive in runs, the +195 odds for him to have more than 0.5 RBIs could provide good value.
Opposing Analysis
The Braves will be sending Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound. Schwellenbach has had a mixed season with a 3-5 record and a 4.62 ERA. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, he has also been prone to giving up hits and runs. This could be an opportunity for Alvarez to capitalize, especially given Schwellenbach's tendency to struggle against powerful hitters.
The Braves' bullpen has also been inconsistent, which could further play into Alvarez's favor. If Schwellenbach exits the game early, the Mets' hitters, including Alvarez, could have more opportunities against a vulnerable bullpen.
Pitching Probables
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| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | 3-5 | 4.62 | 49 |
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 2-4 | 5.08 | 49 |
Team Previews
Atlanta Braves: The Braves' offense has been potent this season, ranking 5th in runs scored with 504. They are batting .249 as a team, which places them 11th in the majors. Marcell Ozuna has been a standout performer, leading the team with a .308 batting average, 29 home runs, and 81 RBIs. Their pitching staff, however, has been less reliable, with a team ERA of 4.15, ranking them 21st.
New York Mets: The Mets have been solid both offensively and defensively. Their pitching staff ranks 3rd in the majors with a 3.52 ERA. Offensively, they have a .240 team batting average, led by Francisco Lindor, who has hit 22 home runs. The Mets have also been efficient in close games, boasting a good record in one-run games.
Team Injuries
| Player | Position | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | OF | 60-Day IL (hamstring) |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 10-Day IL (wrist) |
| Max Fried | SP | 15-Day IL (forearm) |
| Kodai Senga | SP | Day-to-day (calf) |
| Harrison Bader | CF | Day-to-day (ankle) |
Recent Games
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| Braves | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ New York | 8-4 | L |
| @ New York | 3-2 | L |
| vs Cincinnati | 9-4 | L |
| vs Cincinnati | Postponed | Postponed |
| vs Cincinnati | 4-1 | L |
| Mets | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Atlanta | 8-4 | W |
| vs Atlanta | 3-2 | W |
| @ Miami | 6-4 | W |
| @ Miami | 4-2 | L |
| @ Miami | 1-0 | W |
Prediction
Pick: Over 0.5 Hits for Francisco Alvarez (-175)
Given Francisco Alvarez's recent form and the inconsistency of Spencer Schwellenbach, the over 0.5 hits prop bet for Alvarez seems like a solid pick. Alvarez has been making good contact and has a favorable matchup against a struggling pitcher. Additionally, with the Braves' bullpen issues, Alvarez should have multiple opportunities to get a hit in this game.
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