Ernie Clement's MLB Prop Picks - Rays vs Blue Jays 7/23

Game Summary

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Tampa Bay Rays to kick off a three-game series at Rogers Centre on Tuesday, July 23, 2024, at 7:07 PM EDT. Both teams are looking to improve their standings in the competitive AL East. The Blue Jays, currently at 45-54, sit fifth in the division, while the Rays, at 50-50, hold the fourth spot. Toronto has struggled at home with a 22-26 record but boasts the seventh-ranked team on-base percentage in the AL at .311. Tampa Bay has a balanced road record of 23-23 and has excelled in games where they didn't allow a home run, holding a 19-7 record in such matchups.

Historically, the season series has been tightly contested, with the Rays leading 4-3. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance and bouts of inconsistency in recent games. The Blue Jays have gone 5-5 in their last ten games, hitting .259 with a 5.70 ERA, while the Rays have managed a 6-4 record, hitting .236 with a more respectable 3.07 ERA. Injuries have impacted both teams, with notable absences including Bo Bichette for the Blue Jays and Shane McClanahan for the Rays.

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Player Prop Odds

Ernie Clement has several intriguing prop bets for this matchup:

• Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+370), Under 0.5 (-600)
• Batter Hits: Over 1.5 (+200)
• Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+205), Under 0.5 (-290)
• Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+175), Under 0.5 (-245)
• Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (-140), Under 0.5 (+100)
• Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+145), Under 1.5 (-200)

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Player Analysis

Ernie Clement has been a consistent contributor for the Toronto Blue Jays this season. Known for his versatility and situational hitting, Clement has maintained a solid batting average with key hits in crucial moments. He has shown the ability to drive the ball to both gaps and occasionally over the fence. Clement's approach at the plate emphasizes contact, making him a reliable option for prop bets involving hits and total bases. Over his last ten games, Clement has been 11-for-38 with three doubles, four home runs, and six RBIs, highlighting his recent hot streak.

Opposing Analysis

The Tampa Bay Rays' pitching staff, particularly the bullpen, has been a strength this season. However, their starting rotation has faced challenges, especially with the injuries to key pitchers. Shawn Armstrong, who will start for the Rays, has struggled with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. Armstrong has allowed 52 hits and 18 walks in just 42.2 innings, providing opportunities for hitters to capitalize. The Rays' bullpen has been more effective, but the Blue Jays' lineup, with proficient hitters like Clement, can exploit the starting pitching mismatch early in the game.

Pitching Probables

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Player	W-L	ERA	WHIP	IP	H	K	BB	HR
Shawn Armstrong (TB)	2-2	5.91	1.64	42.2	52	45	18	5
Jose Berrios (TOR)	8-7	4.01	1.18	119.0	108	87	33	21

Team Previews

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have relied heavily on their pitching staff to keep them in games. Despite injuries, the bullpen has been a bright spot, with several relievers stepping up in high-leverage situations. Offensively, the team has been inconsistent, ranking 25th in runs scored and 27th in hits. However, they have shown power potential with key contributors like Isaac Paredes, who leads the team with 35 extra-base hits. Defensively, the Rays have been solid, but they have committed 57 errors, ranking them 10th in the league.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have a potent lineup, with players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading the charge. The team ranks seventh in the AL in on-base percentage and has shown the ability to score runs in bunches. However, their pitching staff has been a mixed bag, with a team ERA of 4.23, ranking 22nd in the league. The bullpen has been a strength, with 32 saves, ranking fourth in the league. Defensively, the Blue Jays have committed 51 errors, ranking 17th in the league.

Team Injuries

Tampa Bay Rays

Player	Position	Injury Status
Ryan Pepiot	RP	15-Day IL (knee)
Richard Lovelady	RP	15-Day IL (forearm)
Jacob Waguespack	SP	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Jeffrey Springs	SP	60-Day IL (elbow)
Drew Rasmussen	SP	60-Day IL (elbow)
Shane McClanahan	SP	60-Day IL (forearm)

Toronto Blue Jays

Player	Position	Injury Status
Bo Bichette	SS	10-Day IL (calf)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	2B	10-Day IL (knee)
Jordan Romano	RP	15-Day IL (elbow)
Alek Manoah	SP	15-Day IL (elbow)

Recent Games

Tampa Bay Rays

Opponent	Score	W/L
@ New York	1-6	L
@ New York	9-1	W
@ New York	6-4	W
@ New York	1-9	L

Toronto Blue Jays

Opponent	Score	W/L
vs Detroit	4-5	L
vs Detroit	3-7	L
vs Detroit	5-4	W

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Prediction

Considering Ernie Clement's recent form and the favorable matchup against Shawn Armstrong, the prop bet for Clement to exceed 1.5 total bases at +145 odds looks promising. Clement has been consistently hitting and could exploit Armstrong's high ERA and WHIP. Additionally, Clement has shown the ability to get on base and drive in runs, making the over 0.5 RBIs at +205 another attractive bet.

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