© Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

 

Game Preview: Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction - September 11, 2024

Introduction

The Chicago Cubs (75-70) will face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers (86-59) at Dodger Stadium on September 11, 2024. The Cubs are coming into this game on an impressive 8-game road win streak, which has positioned them strongly in the NL Central race. The Dodgers, despite their overall strong season, have stumbled in their last two games against the Cubs and will be eager to stop the bleeding and regain their momentum.

This game is crucial for both teams as the Cubs look to solidify their playoff positioning, while the Dodgers aim to maintain their lead in the NL West. Both teams boast potent offenses, and with inconsistent pitching expected in this matchup, the over/under line is set at 8.5, with many predicting a high-scoring affair. Given the stakes and the current form of both teams, this matchup promises to be exciting and competitive.

 

Odds Table

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
Chicago Cubs (75-70)	+145	+1.5 (-135)	O 8.5 (-135)
Los Angeles Dodgers (86-59)	-175	-1.5 (+115)	U 8.5 (+115)

Interpretation: The Dodgers are favored at -175, reflecting their strong season record and home-field advantage. The run line of -1.5 (+115) suggests confidence in a close game but with the potential for a Dodgers win by multiple runs. The total is set at 8.5, with the odds slightly favoring the over at -135, indicating expectations of a high-scoring game.

Team Analysis

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have been on fire recently, especially on the road, where they’ve won 8 consecutive games. Their offense has been a major factor in this surge, with the team averaging 6.5 runs per game over their last 10 outings. Ian Happ has been a key contributor, leading the team with 23 home runs and 81 RBIs, while Seiya Suzuki has provided consistency with a .273 average and a .349 on-base percentage.

Beyond these standouts, Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson have also played pivotal roles in the Cubs’ offensive output. The lineup’s depth and ability to produce runs from multiple spots make them a dangerous opponent for any pitching staff. However, the Cubs' pitching has been a bit shaky, which could lead to high-scoring games, especially against a powerful lineup like the Dodgers.

The Cubs’ bullpen has been relatively solid, but the recent workload has been heavy due to some short outings by their starters. This could be a factor late in the game, especially if Jordan Wicks struggles early. The Cubs need to focus on getting length from their starter and managing the bullpen effectively to maintain their recent success. With key contributors like Julian Merryweather and Hayden Wesneski currently on the IL, the Cubs will need the remaining bullpen arms to step up in this crucial matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers, despite their recent losses to the Cubs, remain one of the top teams in baseball, largely due to their explosive offense. Shohei Ohtani has been the centerpiece, hitting 46 home runs with 101 RBIs. Ohtani's impact goes beyond the numbers, as his presence in the lineup forces pitchers to pitch carefully, often leading to more scoring opportunities for the hitters around him.

Freddie Freeman has also been a consistent force, hitting .290 with 27 home runs. Freeman’s ability to get on base and drive in runs makes him a crucial part of the Dodgers' offensive machine. Despite their recent struggles, particularly in the first two games of this series, the Dodgers have the firepower to bounce back quickly and put runs on the board in a hurry.

However, the Dodgers' pitching has been a concern, particularly with Bobby Miller taking the mound. With a 7.79 ERA and a WHIP of 1.65, Miller has struggled mightily, especially with keeping the ball in the park. The Dodgers’ bullpen, while strong overall, has also been taxed lately, and the team’s reliance on Miller to provide a quality start could be a determining factor in whether they can salvage a game in this series.

 

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks (LHP)

Jordan Wicks enters this game with a 2-3 record and a 4.03 ERA over 38 innings. While Wicks has shown potential, his performance has been inconsistent. He has a 1.42 WHIP, indicating that he allows a fair amount of baserunners, which could be problematic against a potent Dodgers lineup. Wicks has, however, done a good job limiting home runs, allowing just 2 this season.

Wicks relies heavily on his fastball-changeup combination, which has been effective at times, but his control issues (14 walks in 38 innings) have led to trouble. Against a patient Dodgers team that excels at working counts, Wicks will need to be at his best to keep the Cubs in the game. If he struggles to find the strike zone, it could lead to a short outing and put additional pressure on the Cubs' bullpen.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Bobby Miller (RHP)

Bobby Miller has had a challenging season, posting a 2-4 record with a 7.79 ERA in 49.2 innings. His 1.65 WHIP and the 15 home runs he has allowed are significant concerns, particularly against a Cubs lineup that has been swinging the bats well. Miller’s struggles with command and his tendency to give up the long ball could lead to another rough outing if he doesn’t make adjustments.

Miller's fastball has good velocity, but his secondary pitches have been inconsistent, leading to his inflated ERA. He will need to find better control and command of his pitches if he hopes to keep the Cubs' hitters at bay. If Miller can’t get ahead in counts and execute his pitches, the Cubs could take advantage early, setting the stage for a high-scoring game.

Miller’s tendency to give up runs in bunches, especially in the early innings, has been a major issue this season. Against a Cubs lineup that has been aggressive early in counts, Miller will need to find a way to settle in quickly to avoid putting the Dodgers in a hole. His ability to limit damage and keep the ball in the park will be key to the Dodgers' chances of avoiding a sweep.

Recent Performance

Chicago Cubs

Date	Opponent	Result
9/10/24	@LAD	W 6-3
9/9/24	@LAD	W 10-4
9/8/24	vs NYY	W 2-1
9/7/24	vs NYY	L 2-0
9/6/24	vs NYY	L 3-0

The Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games, highlighted by two impressive victories against the Dodgers to start this series. Their offense has been clicking, scoring 16 runs in the first two games against the Dodgers, which bodes well for their chances in the series finale. The Cubs’ recent surge has been driven by a combination of timely hitting and solid bullpen work, allowing them to close out tight games.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Date	Opponent	Result
9/10/24	CHC	L 6-3
9/9/24	CHC	L 10-4
9/8/24	CLE	W 4-0
9/7/24	CLE	W 7-2
9/6/24	CLE	L 3-1

The Dodgers have been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses in their last 5 games. They struggled mightily against the Cubs in the first two games of this series, allowing 16 runs, which is uncharacteristic of a team that prides itself on strong pitching and defense. Bobby Miller's start will be crucial in determining whether they can salvage a game in this series.

 

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Cubs and Dodgers have faced each other 7 times this season, with the Cubs holding a slight 4-3 edge. These games have been relatively high-scoring, with the over hitting in 4 of those matchups. Given the current form of both teams, another high-scoring game seems likely.

In the most recent matchups, the Cubs have had the upper hand, capitalizing on the Dodgers' pitching struggles. The Cubs' ability to get to the Dodgers' starters early has been key in their recent success, as they have consistently built early leads and forced the Dodgers to play catch-up. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have struggled to get timely hits, especially with runners in scoring position, which has been a significant factor in their losses.

This head-to-head dynamic sets the stage for another potentially high-scoring affair, as both teams have shown they can put runs on the board. The Cubs’ recent success against the Dodgers suggests they have a good chance of continuing this trend, especially with Bobby Miller's struggles on the mound.

 

Betting Stats and Trends

Chicago Cubs

• The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 road games.
• The Cubs have hit the over in 7 of their last 10 games.
• Chicago is 4-3 SU against the Dodgers this season.
• The total has gone over in 4 of the Cubs' last 5 games against the Dodgers.
• The Cubs are 12-8 SU in their last 20 games.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
• The Dodgers have hit the over in 6 of their last 10 games.
• Los Angeles is 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.
• The total has gone over in 5 of the Dodgers' last 7 games against NL Central opponents.
• The Dodgers are 3-4 SU in their last 7 games against the Cubs.

 

Prediction