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MLB Player Prop Analysis: Clarke Schmidt Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Kansas City Royals - October 9, 2024

As the New York Yankees take on the Kansas City Royals in Game 3 of the ALDS, Clarke Schmidt gets the ball for the Yankees in a pivotal road matchup. With the series tied 1-1, all eyes are on Schmidt to deliver a strong performance. One prop bet that stands out for this game is Schmidt recording over or under 3.5 strikeouts. Here’s why this line is offering excellent value.

Game Odds

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
New York Yankees (94-68)	-110	-1.5 (+150)	Over 7.5 (-125)
Kansas City Royals (86-76)	-105	+1.5 (-180)	Under 7.5 (-105)

The Yankees are slight favorites at -110, while the Royals are listed at -105. The over/under for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which indicates a tightly contested game with a good pitching duel in the mix.

 

Team Analysis

New York Yankees

The Yankees have been a force this season, finishing with a 94-68 record, but they’ll need solid pitching to overcome a tough Kansas City squad. Offensively, Aaron Judge leads the charge, but Schmidt’s performance will be a major factor in this game. Schmidt has shown the ability to strike out hitters with regularity, and with Kansas City ranking in the middle of the pack in strikeouts, this prop bet offers strong potential.

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City had a solid season, finishing 86-76, and their offense is led by Bobby Witt Jr. However, the Royals have been inconsistent at times, and their strikeout rate gives opposing pitchers opportunities to rack up strikeouts. While the Royals’ hitters have the ability to generate runs, they also offer enough swing-and-miss potential to make Schmidt’s strikeout prop a strong play.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Clarke Schmidt (New York Yankees)

Clarke Schmidt finished the 2024 regular season with a 2.85 ERA and 93 strikeouts over 85.1 innings. Schmidt has consistently shown the ability to generate strikeouts, especially in high-leverage situations. In his final three starts of the regular season, he averaged 5.7 strikeouts per game, including a seven-strikeout performance against Baltimore on September 24. He’s well-positioned to exceed 3.5 strikeouts in this matchup.

Seth Lugo (Kansas City Royals)

Lugo had a solid start in Game 1 of this series, but the focus of this analysis is on Schmidt’s strikeout potential. Lugo’s performance will also play a role, as a strong outing from Lugo could keep the game close and give Schmidt more opportunities to pitch deeper into the game, increasing his strikeout potential.

Recent Performance

New York Yankees

The Yankees have been 3-2 in their last five games, including a 4-2 loss to the Royals in Game 2 of this series. Schmidt’s ability to limit baserunners and generate strikeouts will be crucial in turning the momentum back in favor of New York.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals are 4-1 in their last five games, including a 4-2 victory over the Yankees in Game 2. They have shown an ability to make contact, but also strike out at key moments, which plays into the strength of Schmidt’s strikeout prop.

Head-to-Head Comparison

Clarke Schmidt has faced the Royals twice this season, averaging five strikeouts per start. His ability to induce swings and misses, combined with the Royals' susceptibility to strikeouts, makes the over 3.5 strikeouts line very appealing in this game.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

New York Yankees

The Yankees are 88-74 ATS this season, and they’ve covered the spread in 56% of their road games. Schmidt’s ability to strike out batters has been a key factor in the Yankees’ success against the spread, particularly in low-scoring games where pitching dominates.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals are 81-81 ATS this season, and they’ve struggled to cover the spread against strong pitching teams. If Schmidt can rack up strikeouts early, it could put Kansas City in a position where they are chasing the game, further enhancing the likelihood of Schmidt going over 3.5 strikeouts.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Clarke Schmidt strikeouts: Schmidt has gone over 3.5 strikeouts in four of his last five starts, averaging 5.2 strikeouts per game in September.
• Royals' offense: Kansas City ranks in the middle of the league in terms of strikeouts per game, but they have shown a tendency to swing aggressively, which benefits Schmidt's strikeout potential.
• Yankees’ defense: New York has been strong defensively, which will allow Schmidt to pitch more aggressively and go deeper into the game.

 

Prediction