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Clarke Schmidt MLB Player Prop: ALCS Game 3 - Yankees vs Guardians

The New York Yankees lead the Cleveland Guardians 2-0 in the ALCS as Game 3 heads to Progressive Field in Cleveland. Clarke Schmidt will be taking the mound for the Yankees, and his hits allowed prop is set at 3.5 (-145). We'll analyze Schmidt's recent performance and matchup against the Guardians' hitters to assess whether backing the over Zor under on this prop offers value.

 

Game Odds

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
New York Yankees (94-68)	-120	-1.5 (+160)	Over 7.5 (+115)
Cleveland Guardians (92-69)	-110	+1.5 (-190)	Under 7.5 (-135)

The Yankees are slight favorites going into Game 3, looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. With a total set at 7.5 runs, the game projects to be relatively low-scoring, which influences the outlook on Schmidt’s pitching performance.

Team Analysis

New York Yankees

The Yankees have dominated the first two games of the ALCS, winning 5-2 and 6-3. Clarke Schmidt, their starting pitcher for Game 3, had a solid regular season with a 2.85 ERA, 93 strikeouts, and a 1.18 WHIP over 85.1 innings. Schmidt allowed 71 hits across those innings, giving him an average of 7.5 hits allowed per 9 innings.

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians will look to bounce back in Game 3 at home. Cleveland's offense, anchored by hitters like Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, has shown the ability to make contact, especially against pitchers like Schmidt. Ramirez has gone 4-for-9 against Schmidt in his career, and Kwan has posted a .500 average in his limited at-bats against the Yankees right-hander.

Clarke Schmidt’s Recent Performance

Schmidt’s recent games have shown a mix of solid outings and struggles, particularly with hit prevention:

• October 9 vs. Kansas City (ALDS Game 1): 4.2 innings, 4 hits allowed, 2 earned runs.
• September 29 vs. Pittsburgh: 4.0 innings, 3 hits allowed, 4 earned runs.
• September 19 vs. Seattle: 5.0 innings, 6 hits allowed, 1 earned run.
• September 13 vs. Boston: 5.2 innings, 5 hits allowed, 2 earned runs.

In his last four starts, Schmidt has allowed at least 3 hits in each appearance and surpassed 3.5 hits in three of those games. With Schmidt not typically going deep into games, his shorter outings still tend to involve allowing a few hits early on.

Guardians Hitters vs. Clarke Schmidt

Schmidt will face a Cleveland lineup that has had some success against him in the past. Key matchups include:

• Steven Kwan: 4-for-8 (.500), 2 strikeouts
• Jose Ramirez: 4-for-9 (.444), 2 RBIs
• Andres Gimenez: 5-for-10 (.500), 1 RBI

With multiple Cleveland hitters having strong averages against Schmidt, it increases the likelihood of them collecting hits off the Yankees right-hander, especially in front of a home crowd in a must-win situation.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Clarke Schmidt hits allowed prop: Schmidt has given up more than 3.5 hits in three of his last four starts.
• Yankees road performance: The Yankees have been strong on the road, but their pitchers have allowed an average of 8.1 hits per game when away from Yankee Stadium.
• Guardians home performance: Cleveland’s offense improves at home, where they bat .252 compared to their overall average of .238.

Prediction