Clarke Schmidt MLB Player Prop for Yankees vs Guardians G3 10/17
- Lm Tipster
- Oct 17, 2024, 7:14:19 PM
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Clarke Schmidt MLB Player Prop: ALCS Game 3 - Yankees vs Guardians
The New York Yankees lead the Cleveland Guardians 2-0 in the ALCS as Game 3 heads to Progressive Field in Cleveland. Clarke Schmidt will be taking the mound for the Yankees, and his hits allowed prop is set at 3.5 (-145). We'll analyze Schmidt's recent performance and matchup against the Guardians' hitters to assess whether backing the over Zor under on this prop offers value.
Game Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees (94-68) | -120 | -1.5 (+160) | Over 7.5 (+115) |
| Cleveland Guardians (92-69) | -110 | +1.5 (-190) | Under 7.5 (-135) |
The Yankees are slight favorites going into Game 3, looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. With a total set at 7.5 runs, the game projects to be relatively low-scoring, which influences the outlook on Schmidt’s pitching performance.
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
The Yankees have dominated the first two games of the ALCS, winning 5-2 and 6-3. Clarke Schmidt, their starting pitcher for Game 3, had a solid regular season with a 2.85 ERA, 93 strikeouts, and a 1.18 WHIP over 85.1 innings. Schmidt allowed 71 hits across those innings, giving him an average of 7.5 hits allowed per 9 innings.
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians will look to bounce back in Game 3 at home. Cleveland's offense, anchored by hitters like Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, has shown the ability to make contact, especially against pitchers like Schmidt. Ramirez has gone 4-for-9 against Schmidt in his career, and Kwan has posted a .500 average in his limited at-bats against the Yankees right-hander.
Clarke Schmidt’s Recent Performance
Schmidt’s recent games have shown a mix of solid outings and struggles, particularly with hit prevention:
- October 9 vs. Kansas City (ALDS Game 1): 4.2 innings, 4 hits allowed, 2 earned runs.
- September 29 vs. Pittsburgh: 4.0 innings, 3 hits allowed, 4 earned runs.
- September 19 vs. Seattle: 5.0 innings, 6 hits allowed, 1 earned run.
- September 13 vs. Boston: 5.2 innings, 5 hits allowed, 2 earned runs.
In his last four starts, Schmidt has allowed at least 3 hits in each appearance and surpassed 3.5 hits in three of those games. With Schmidt not typically going deep into games, his shorter outings still tend to involve allowing a few hits early on.
Guardians Hitters vs. Clarke Schmidt
Schmidt will face a Cleveland lineup that has had some success against him in the past. Key matchups include:
- Steven Kwan: 4-for-8 (.500), 2 strikeouts
- Jose Ramirez: 4-for-9 (.444), 2 RBIs
- Andres Gimenez: 5-for-10 (.500), 1 RBI
With multiple Cleveland hitters having strong averages against Schmidt, it increases the likelihood of them collecting hits off the Yankees right-hander, especially in front of a home crowd in a must-win situation.
Betting Stats and Trends
- Clarke Schmidt hits allowed prop: Schmidt has given up more than 3.5 hits in three of his last four starts.
- Yankees road performance: The Yankees have been strong on the road, but their pitchers have allowed an average of 8.1 hits per game when away from Yankee Stadium.
- Guardians home performance: Cleveland’s offense improves at home, where they bat .252 compared to their overall average of .238.
Prediction
Clarke Schmidt has consistently allowed hits in his recent outings, and with a Guardians lineup that features hitters who have performed well against him in the past, the over 3.5 hits allowed prop at -145 seems like a solid wager. Schmidt is unlikely to pitch deep into the game, but Cleveland’s contact-heavy approach could lead to several early hits.
Pick: Clarke Schmidt to allow over 3.5 hits (-145). With Cleveland's offense facing a must-win situation, expect them to be aggressive and rack up a few hits off Schmidt early in the game.
