Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 11 (8/11): MLB

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 11 (8/11): MLB

Credit: photo by  Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen-USA TODAY Sports

 

Odds

Time 7:15 p.m. EST
Reds money line -112
Reds run line +1.5 (+175)
Cubs money line -108
Cubs run line +1.5 (-210)
Over / under 9

 

Key stats

  Cincinnati Reds  Chicago Cubs
Record 44-66 45-65
Home / road record 24-32 24-34
Last 10 record 4-6 5-5
Streak L3 W1
Over / under record 56-53-1 47-56-7
Runs / game 4.24 4.13
Runs allowed / game 5.21 4.82

 

Preview

The Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds will play at the Field of Dreams Game in Dyersville, Iowa. The Reds beat the Nationals in their last series while the Cubs were swept by the Mets. In the last 7 head to head games this season the Cubs leads 4-3 vs Reds.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds get here with a 44-66 record and have won 3 of their last 5 games. The team is averaging 4.24 runs. They're batting for .239 AVG, 466 runs scored in 868 hits and 104 home runs, ranking #17 in offense in the league behind the Cleveland Guardians. Kyle Farmer leads the team with 51 RBI, 6 home runs and batting for .248 AVG.

Defensively they are allowing 5.21 runs per game and rank #28 in the league. Tyler Mahle leads the pitching staff with a 4.40 ERA, 114 strikeouts and 5 wins recorded with the Reds.

Probable Pitcher:  Nick Lodolo (3-3, 4.40 ERA)

Lodolo will be on the mound in the 1st game of the series for Cincinnati. Lodolo allowed three runs on four hits, four walks and a hit batter while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a no-decision versus the Brewers on Saturday. He hasn't pitched against the Cubs in his career.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs get here with a 45-65 record and have lost 3 of their last 5 games. The team is averaging 4.13 runs per game. They're batting for .244 AVG, 454 runs scored in 905 hits and 108 home runs, ranking #21 in offense in the league behind the Baltimore Orioles. Patrick Wisdom is leading the team with 20 home runs and 52 RBI while Nico Hoerner has the better batting average with .295.

Defensively they are allowing 4.82 runs per game and rank #24 in the league. Keegan Thompson leads the pitching staff with a 3.36 ERA, 86 strikeouts and 9 wins recorded for the Cubs.

Probable Pitcher:  Drew Smyly (4-6, 3.97 ERA)

Smyly will be on the mound in the 1st game of the series for the Cubs. Smyly earned the win Saturday, allowing five hits and one walk over 6.2 scoreless innings against the Marlins. He struck out four. He has a 4-0 record with an ERA of 3.41, 31 strikeouts and 1 save in 6 appearances versus the Reds in his career.

BETTING TRENDS

Chi Cubs are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chi Cubs' last 10 games against an opponent in the National League.

Cincinnati Reds are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games at home.

Cincinnati Reds are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs.

Prediction

The Reds were absolutely dominated by the Mets in their last series and have struggled offensively since they traded 2 of their best hitters. For this game they'll send Nick Lodolo to the mound who has been up and down this season but the Reds are 6-3 in his 9 starts this season. The Cubs have won 4 of their last 6 games and have outscored the Reds more than once this season. Drew Smyly will start this game who's coming from a great game vs Marlins and already recorded a win this season vs Cincinnati. The Cubs get here in better shape and I think they'll win this game.

PICK: Cubs ML (-105)

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