MLB Player Props Predictions and Picks: Yankees vs Red Sox 7/28

Photo Credit: © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The New York Yankees (61-45, second in the AL East) will face off against the Boston Red Sox (55-48, third in the AL East) at Fenway Park on Sunday, July 28, 2024, at 7:10 p.m. EDT. The Yankees come into the game following a thrilling 11-8 victory over the Red Sox, where Aaron Judge led the charge with a four-hit performance. The season series between these iconic rivals stands at 5-3 in favor of the Red Sox.

Boston boasts a solid .258 team batting average, the third-best in MLB, and has been a formidable opponent at home with a 25-26 record. The Yankees, on the other hand, have performed well on the road with a 34-22 record and hold an impressive .333 on-base percentage, the second-highest in the league. Both teams have shown resilience, with the Yankees aiming to bridge the gap in the season series and the Red Sox looking to maintain their edge.

Recent performances highlight the strengths and struggles of both teams. Jarren Duran stands out for the Red Sox, hitting .293 with 13 home runs and 52 RBIs. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge continues to be the Yankees' powerhouse, leading the team with 37 home runs and slugging .686. This matchup promises to be another exciting chapter in the storied rivalry between these two AL East giants.

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Player Prop Odds

Carlos Rodon - Pitcher to Record a Win: No (-250), Yes (+175)

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Player Analysis

Carlos Rodon has had an up-and-down season with the Yankees, posting a 10-7 record, a 4.42 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP over 114 innings pitched. Despite the relatively high ERA, Rodon has been effective in racking up strikeouts, tallying 122 Ks this season. His ability to dominate the strike zone will be crucial against a Red Sox lineup that has been hitting well recently.

Rodon’s last few outings have seen mixed results, but he remains a critical piece of the Yankees' rotation. His success often hinges on his ability to command his fastball and secondary pitches, keeping hitters off balance. Given the Yankees' need to close the gap in the season series, Rodon will be looking to deliver a strong performance at Fenway Park.

Opposing Analysis

The Boston Red Sox lineup has been potent, contributing to their .258 team batting average, which ranks third in the MLB. Key hitters like Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers have been consistent threats at the plate. Duran, hitting .293 with 13 home runs, and Devers, who leads the team with 23 home runs, will be the primary challenges for Rodon.

Rodon will need to navigate through a lineup that also features Tyler O'Neill, who has been on a hot streak with six home runs in the last 10 games. The Red Sox's aggressive approach at the plate could work to Rodon’s advantage if he can exploit their tendencies with his strikeout capabilities.

Pitching Probables

Player	W-L	ERA	WHIP	IP	H	K	BB	HR
Carlos Rodon (NYY)	10-7	4.42	1.24	114.0	106	122	35	21
Tanner Houck (BOS)	8-6	2.71	1.09	123.0	105	114	29	6

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Team Previews

New York Yankees

The Yankees have been a powerhouse on the road with a 34-22 record. Offensively, they are led by Aaron Judge, who has 37 home runs and a .686 slugging percentage. The team’s .333 on-base percentage is second-best in the league, highlighting their ability to get on base and create scoring opportunities. The Yankees' pitching staff has been solid, with a team ERA of 3.84, ranking 13th in the league.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have shown strong offensive capabilities, with a .258 team batting average. Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran have been standout performers, and Tyler O'Neill’s recent form has added depth to their lineup. On the mound, Tanner Houck has been impressive, posting a 2.71 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. The Red Sox bullpen has also been reliable, contributing to their overall team ERA of 3.67, which ranks fifth in the MLB.

Team Injuries

Player	Position	Updated	Injury	Injury Status
Jose Trevino	C	Sat, Jul 27	Quadricep	10-Day IL
Nick Burdi	RP	Fri, Jul 26	Hip	60-Day IL
Giancarlo Stanton	DH	Sat, Jul 27	Hamstring	10-Day IL
Anthony Rizzo	1B	Fri, Jul 26	Wrist	60-Day IL

Player	Position	Updated	Injury	Injury Status
Liam Hendriks	RP	Fri, Jul 26	Elbow	60-Day IL
Chris Martin	RP	Fri, Jul 26	Elbow	15-Day IL

Recent Games

Date	Opponent	Result	W/L	Win	Loss	Save	Attend
Fri, Jul 19	vs Tampa Bay	W 6-1	59-40	Cole 3-1	Eflin 5-7	—	47,036
Sat, Jul 20	vs Tampa Bay	L 9-1	59-41	Bradley 5-4	Cortes 4-9	—	43,173
Sun, Jul 21	vs Tampa Bay	L 6-4	59-42	Cleavinger 6-2	Stroman 7-5	Fairbanks 18	45,178
Mon, Jul 22	vs Tampa Bay	W 9-1	60-42	Rodon 10-7	Littell 3-7	—	40,824
Tue, Jul 23	vs New York	L 3-2	60-43	Quintana 5-6	Tonkin 3-4	Diekman 4	47,453

Date	Opponent	Result	W/L	Win	Loss	Save	Attend
Fri, Jul 19	@ Los Angeles	L 4-1	53-43	Yarbrough 4-2	Bernardino 3-3	Hudson 5	51,562
Sat, Jul 20	@ Los Angeles	L 7-6 (11)	53-44	Treinen 3-2	Weissert 2-2	—	48,129
Sun, Jul 21	@ Los Angeles	L 9-6	53-45	Paxton 8-2	Crawford 6-8	Hudson 6	50,824
Mon, Jul 22	@ Colorado	L 9-8 (12)	53-46	Lawrence 3-3	Horn 0-1	—	35,261
Tue, Jul 23	@ Colorado	W 6-0	54-46	Criswell 4-4	Blach 3-6	—	36,553

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Prediction

Given Carlos Rodon's recent form and the potent Red Sox lineup, the odds for Rodon to record a win appear challenging. With opposing pitcher Tanner Houck having an impressive 2.71 ERA, and the Red Sox's offensive capabilities, it will be a tough task for Rodon to secure a win. The Red Sox have the advantage in the season series and have been solid at home. Therefore, the smart bet would be:

Carlos Rodon: MLB Player Props Predictions and Picks: Yankees vs Red Sox 7/28