Cardinals vs Dodgers Over Under Prediction MLB 8/18
- Lm Tipster
- Aug 18, 2024, 1:24:06 AM
© Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Game Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Over/Under Pick- August 18, 2024
Introduction
The Los Angeles Dodgers, holding a strong 72-51 record, will face the St. Louis Cardinals, who are fighting to stay in the playoff hunt with a 60-62 record, on August 18, 2024, at Busch Stadium. This matchup features two teams with contrasting fortunes this season. The Dodgers are leading the National League West and are eyeing a deep playoff run, while the Cardinals are struggling to keep pace in the National League Central, sitting 10 games back. Despite the disparity in records, the Cardinals have been competitive at home, making this a compelling game for both fans and bettors. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a game that could hinge on key pitching matchups.
Odds Table
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers (72-51) | -125 | -1.5 (+140) | O 8.5 (EVEN) |
| St. Louis Cardinals (60-62) | +105 | +1.5 (-165) | U 8.5 (-115) |
Interpretation: The Dodgers are slight favorites with a moneyline of -125, reflecting their superior record but acknowledging the Cardinals’ home-field advantage. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, with the odds slightly favoring the under, suggesting that bookmakers expect a relatively low-scoring game. The run line favors the Dodgers to win by more than one run, but the Cardinals’ ability to keep games close at home makes the +1.5 run line for St. Louis an attractive option for bettors.
Team Analysis
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to assert their dominance in the National League West, boasting a 72-51 record and a 34-29 mark on the road. The Dodgers’ offense has been potent, led by Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. Ohtani has been sensational, hitting .291 with 37 home runs and 86 RBIs, while Freeman has been a consistent force with a .292 average, .391 on-base percentage, and 20 home runs. The Dodgers’ lineup is deep and capable of putting up runs in a hurry, as evidenced by their 609 runs scored this season, which ranks among the best in the league.
On the pitching side, the Dodgers have been equally impressive, with a team ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.21. Clayton Kershaw, who will start this game, has had a solid season, despite dealing with some injuries. Kershaw has posted a 1-2 record with a 3.50 ERA over 18 innings pitched. While his win-loss record doesn’t reflect his effectiveness, Kershaw’s ability to limit hard contact and his veteran savvy make him a tough matchup for any lineup. The Dodgers’ bullpen has also been reliable, consistently closing out games and maintaining leads, which will be crucial in a close contest like this one.
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals enter this game with a 60-62 record, including a 31-28 mark at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals’ offense has been led by Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn. Burleson has been a bright spot, hitting .274 with 20 home runs and 68 RBIs, while Winn has provided speed and contact ability with a .275 average and 21 stolen bases. However, the Cardinals’ offense has been inconsistent, scoring 502 runs, which ranks in the middle of the pack in the National League. Their .245 team batting average and .309 on-base percentage reflect their struggles to generate consistent offense.
The Cardinals’ pitching staff has been solid but not spectacular, with a team ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.28. Sonny Gray, who will start this game, has been one of the more reliable arms in the rotation, posting an 11-7 record with a 3.93 ERA over 130.2 innings. Gray’s ability to miss bats, with 162 strikeouts, has been a key factor in his success, though he has been prone to giving up the long ball, with 17 home runs allowed. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been shaky at times, which has contributed to their inability to close out games, particularly against strong offensive teams like the Dodgers.
Starting Pitcher Analysis
Los Angeles Dodgers - Clayton Kershaw (LHP)
Clayton Kershaw, a future Hall of Famer, has continued to perform at a high level despite his advancing age and recent injury history. Kershaw enters this game with a 1-2 record and a 3.50 ERA over 18 innings. While his sample size this season is small, Kershaw has shown that he still has the ability to dominate when he’s on his game. His WHIP of 1.39 is slightly higher than his career norm, but he has managed to keep opponents off balance with his mix of fastballs, sliders, and curveballs. Kershaw’s experience and ability to pitch in big games make him a valuable asset for the Dodgers as they push towards the playoffs.
Kershaw’s biggest challenge in this game will be keeping the ball in the park against a Cardinals lineup that, while not overly powerful, can take advantage of mistakes. Busch Stadium is generally pitcher-friendly, which could work in Kershaw’s favor as he looks to navigate through the Cardinals’ lineup. If Kershaw can limit walks and avoid giving up the long ball, he should be able to keep the Dodgers in a strong position to win this game.
St. Louis Cardinals - Sonny Gray (RHP)
Sonny Gray has been a workhorse for the Cardinals this season, posting an 11-7 record with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 130.2 innings. Gray’s ability to generate strikeouts, with 162 punchouts, has been a major strength, though his propensity to give up home runs has been a concern. Gray’s command has been solid, walking just 31 batters, but when he misses his spots, he can be vulnerable to giving up big innings. Gray’s success in this game will hinge on his ability to keep the Dodgers’ powerful lineup in check, particularly Ohtani and Freeman, who are both capable of changing the game with one swing.
Gray’s approach on the mound is to attack hitters early in the count and use his breaking ball to induce weak contact. He has been effective at working out of jams and minimizing damage, which will be crucial against a Dodgers lineup that is relentless from top to bottom. If Gray can keep the ball down and avoid the middle of the plate, he should be able to give the Cardinals a chance to stay competitive in this game.
Recent Performance
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 8/16/24 | @STL | W 7-6 |
| 8/15/24 | @MIL | L 6-4 |
| 8/14/24 | @MIL | L 5-4 |
| 8/13/24 | @MIL | W 7-2 |
| 8/12/24 | @MIL | W 5-2 |
The Dodgers have won three of their last five games, including a narrow 7-6 victory over the Cardinals in the series opener. Their offense has been productive, scoring 7 or more runs in two of their last three wins. However, they also dropped two close games to the Milwaukee Brewers, highlighting some vulnerabilities in their bullpen. Despite these setbacks, the Dodgers have been playing solid baseball, particularly on the road, where they have managed to maintain a winning record.
In their recent series against the Brewers, the Dodgers split the four games, with two of the losses coming by just one run. Their ability to bounce back from tough losses and continue to put up runs is a testament to the depth and resilience of their lineup. The Dodgers will be looking to build on their momentum from the series opener against the Cardinals as they aim to secure another road series win.
St. Louis Cardinals
| Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 8/16/24 | vs LAD | L 7-6 |
| 8/14/24 | @CIN | L 9-2 |
| 8/13/24 | @CIN | L 4-1 |
| 8/12/24 | @CIN | L 6-1 |
| 8/10/24 | @KC | L 8-3 |
The Cardinals have been on a rough stretch, losing five straight games, including the series opener to the Dodgers. Their offense has struggled to produce, scoring just 13 runs over those five games. The Cardinals have had difficulty stringing together hits and taking advantage of scoring opportunities, which has been a key factor in their recent slump. Their pitching staff has also been inconsistent, allowing big innings that have put them in early holes.
Before their current losing streak, the Cardinals were competitive in most games, particularly at home, where they have maintained a winning record. However, their recent form suggests that they are struggling to find consistency on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals will need to turn things around quickly if they hope to avoid a series loss to the Dodgers and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The Dodgers and Cardinals have faced each other multiple times this season, with the Dodgers holding a slight edge in the head-to-head matchups. The Dodgers’ victory in the series opener extended their lead in the season series, and they have now won four of the last six games against the Cardinals. Historically, the Dodgers have also performed well at Busch Stadium, winning 6 of the last 10 games played at this venue between these two teams.
Over the past few seasons, these matchups have been tightly contested, with both teams showing the ability to win on the road. However, the Dodgers' current form, combined with their deeper lineup and stronger pitching staff, gives them the edge in this series. The Cardinals, while competitive, have struggled to generate offense against the Dodgers’ pitchers, particularly in key moments. Given the current state of both teams, this game is likely to be another close contest, with the Dodgers looking to capitalize on their momentum and the Cardinals aiming to snap their losing streak.
Against the Spread (ATS) Records
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have been strong against the spread (ATS) this season, particularly as favorites. They are 70-53 ATS overall and 32-31 ATS as road favorites. The Dodgers have been reliable in covering the spread when they win outright, which has been a frequent occurrence this season. Their ATS success is reflective of their ability to win close games and their strong performances against teams with losing records. When the Dodgers have been favored by 1.5 runs, they’ve covered the spread in 57% of those games, which is a positive trend for bettors looking to back them on the run line.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have been inconsistent ATS, going 60-62 overall. At home, they are 28-31 ATS, reflecting their struggles at Busch Stadium. When underdogs by 1.5 runs, the Cardinals are 30-33 ATS, suggesting they have difficulty covering the spread in close games. Their ATS struggles are indicative of their overall inconsistency and inability to perform in clutch situations. Despite their competitive nature, the Cardinals have not been a reliable team to back on the run line, especially when facing teams with winning records like the Dodgers.
Betting Stats and Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers:
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Dodgers' last 6 games.
- Los Angeles is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Dodgers' last 7 games on the road.
- Los Angeles is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games against St. Louis.
- Los Angeles is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis.
St. Louis Cardinals:
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis' last 7 games.
- St. Louis is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis' last 7 games at home.
- St. Louis is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis' last 6 games against the Dodgers.
Prediction
Given the recent form of both teams and the starting pitching matchup, this game is likely to be a low-scoring affair. Both Clayton Kershaw and Sonny Gray have the ability to keep opposing offenses in check, and the trends point towards the under, with both teams hitting the under in a majority of their recent games. The Dodgers’ offense has been steady, but Busch Stadium’s pitcher-friendly environment, combined with Gray’s effectiveness, suggests that runs could be at a premium. Therefore, the best bet for this matchup is Under 8.5 runs.
