Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 4 (9/4): MLB

Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 4 (9/4): MLB

Credit: photo by Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 7:10 p.m. EST
Cardinals money line +105
Cardinals run line +1.5 (-170)
Brewers money line -125
Brewers run line -1.5 (+150)
Over / under 8.5 (+100)

 

Key stats
  Cardinals Brewers
Record 69-64 82-54
Road / home record 34-34 36-30
Last 10 record 6-4 5-5
Streak 1W 2L
Over / under record 60-66-7 61-65-10
Runs / game 4.20 4.60
Runs allowed / game 4.28 3.76

 

Preview

Today the Cardinals are in town to take on the Brewers.  This will be their 2nd game in this 3 game series, he Cardinals won lastnight's game 15-4.  The Cardinals enter this divisional matchup 1.5 games back for the second NL wild card spot.  They'll look to win another one against this very good brewers team.  The Brewers sit in the driver's seat in the NL Central, up 10 games to the Reds.  They'll look to  turn things around after getting embarrassed by this Cardinals team lastnight.  Look for them to get on a run before heading to the post season.  

Pitching matchup

Cardinals

Kwang Hyun Kim (6-6, 3.23 ERA) will be on the mound today to take on the Brewers. He enters this game with a 1.20 WHIP and 5.09 XFIP.  He boasts a low 18.3% strikeout rate along with a 7.6% walk rate.  Kim has been pretty solid this year but is due for some regression based off the underlying statistics.  He's 2 starts removed from the injured list capping out at 4 innings allowing 1 ER against the Pirates.  I don't expect Kim to go more than 5 innings in this one as he works his way back to full strength.  

Brewers

Adrian Houser (7-6, 3.69 ERA) will be called upon to take on the Cardinals.  He enters this game with a 1.34 WHIP and 4.63 XFIP.  This season he boasts a 18.7% strikeout rate paired with a high 11.2% walk rate.  Houser makes his money by getting ground balls, evidenced by his high 59.7% gound ball rate.  Along with the high ground ball rate he also induces a good amount of soft contact, not yielding a ton of power to either side of the plate.  He comes into this game off a bad start against the Twins where he pitched 5 innings, allowing 5 ER's.  He will look to right the ship against the Cardinals tonight.

Prediction

Both pitchers have been decent this year but are do some regression. Both starters enter this game with pretty high walk rates. I expect both teams to be able to get runners on base and have a chance to get some runs. I'll go after the total in this one.

PICK: Over 8.5 (+100)

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