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Game Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction - August 20, 2024

Introduction

The Milwaukee Brewers, sitting atop the NL Central with a 72-52 record, will face the St. Louis Cardinals, who are struggling to stay in playoff contention with a 61-63 record. This matchup on August 20, 2024, at Busch Stadium is critical for both teams—the Brewers are looking to maintain their division lead, while the Cardinals are fighting to stay above .500. With both teams having much at stake, this promises to be an intense game.

Odds Table

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
Milwaukee Brewers (72-52)	+110	+1.5 (-190)	O 7.5 (-125)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-63)	-130	-1.5 (+160)	U 7.5 (+105)

Interpretation: The Cardinals are slight favorites at -130, reflecting their home-field advantage and the solid performance of starting pitcher Erick Fedde. The total is set at 7.5, with the under at +105, suggesting a potential low-scoring game given the pitching matchups.

Team Analysis

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have been strong all season, currently leading the NL Central with a 72-52 record. Their offense is led by Willy Adames, who has hit 22 home runs and driven in 85 RBIs while batting .253. William Contreras has also been a key contributor, batting .282 with an impressive .355 OBP. The Brewers’ lineup is balanced and capable of producing runs in bunches, especially against weaker pitching.

Frankie Montas will start for the Brewers, sporting a 5-8 record with a 4.86 ERA. Montas has had an up-and-down season, struggling with consistency and allowing a high number of baserunners, as indicated by his 1.46 WHIP. However, he has the potential to deliver strong outings, which will be crucial against a Cardinals lineup that has struggled at times this season.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are sitting in the middle of the NL Central with a 61-63 record, fighting to stay in the playoff race. Alec Burleson has been their standout performer, hitting 21 home runs and driving in 70 RBIs with a .277 average. Despite their offensive talents, the Cardinals have been inconsistent, which has hampered their ability to maintain a winning record.

Erick Fedde takes the mound for the Cardinals, bringing an 8-6 record and a solid 3.40 ERA into this matchup. Fedde has been a reliable arm for St. Louis, with a WHIP of 1.15, indicating his ability to limit baserunners. His challenge will be to keep the Brewers’ potent offense in check, which will be key to the Cardinals’ chances of securing a victory.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Milwaukee Brewers - Frankie Montas (RHP)

Frankie Montas has had a challenging season with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. His inconsistency has been a concern, as he has allowed 16 home runs in 107.1 innings. Montas will need to find his command and avoid the long ball against a Cardinals team that can capitalize on mistakes. If Montas can limit the damage and keep the Brewers in the game, their offense should be able to provide the necessary support.

St. Louis Cardinals - Erick Fedde (RHP)

Erick Fedde has been a bright spot for the Cardinals this season, with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Fedde has been effective in limiting hits and walks, which will be critical against a disciplined Brewers lineup. His ability to pitch deep into games has been valuable for St. Louis, and he will look to continue his strong form to give the Cardinals a chance to win at home.

Recent Performance

Milwaukee Brewers

Date	Opponent	Result
8/18/24	vs CLE	W 2-0
8/17/24	vs CLE	W 2-1
8/16/24	vs CLE	W 5-3
8/15/24	vs LAD	W 6-4
8/14/24	vs LAD	W 5-4

The Brewers are currently on a five-game winning streak, highlighted by a series sweep against the Cleveland Guardians. Their pitching has been excellent, allowing just eight runs over these five games. The Brewers’ ability to win close, low-scoring games has been a key factor in their success.

St. Louis Cardinals

Date	Opponent	Result
8/18/24	vs LAD	L 2-1
8/17/24	vs LAD	W 5-2
8/16/24	vs LAD	L 7-6
8/14/24	@ CIN	L 9-2
8/13/24	@ CIN	L 4-1

The Cardinals have struggled recently, losing four of their last five games. Their lone win came against the Dodgers, but their pitching has been inconsistent, allowing 20 runs over this stretch. The Cardinals will need a strong performance from Fedde to reverse their fortunes against a red-hot Brewers team.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Brewers have dominated the season series against the Cardinals, holding a 6-1 advantage. Milwaukee’s pitching has been the difference, limiting the Cardinals to just 21 runs across these seven games. With the Brewers in good form and the Cardinals struggling, Milwaukee will look to extend their dominance in this matchup.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have a 64-60 ATS record this season, including a 34-26 ATS mark on the road. They have been solid as underdogs, covering the spread in 26 of 48 games. Milwaukee’s ability to perform well as underdogs makes them an appealing option in this matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have a 61-63 ATS record overall, but they have been inconsistent at home with a 29-32 ATS record. As favorites, they have struggled to cover the spread, with a 20-25 ATS record when favored to win. St. Louis will need to step up their game to cover as favorites against a tough Brewers team.

Betting Stats and Trends

Milwaukee Brewers:

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games.
• Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
• Milwaukee is 6-0 SU in their last 6 games against St. Louis.
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games on the road.
• Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in their last 6 road games against St. Louis.

St. Louis Cardinals:

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games.
• St. Louis is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games against Milwaukee.
• St. Louis is 2-4 SU in their last 6 home games.
• St. Louis is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games against an opponent in the NL Central.

Prediction